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Forums - Sales Discussion - Famitsu Sales: Week 27, 2022 (Jun 27 - Jul 03)

curl-6 said:

I still don't think PS5's long term situation in Japan is as dire as it seems now; it's limping in the short term, but once the chip shortage alleviates and games like FF16, Monster Hunter World's sequel, etc start to release it'll pick up the pace. Still probably gonna sell less than PS4 lifetime, but it's not the dud it appears to be on the surface.


it’s actually worse than what it seemed like last year, looking at hardware sales only is only but a small part of the entire picture. Software sales point to ps5 doing very bad overall in japan, the 1.7mil figure we don’t even know how much of that is in Japan currently, yes big games like FF16, FF7R2, MHW2, etc will give it spikes and probably do better than what it’s currently doing now but that doesn’t really make the ps5 situation any better.

Software sales are lowest Sony has ever been in japan, the games you mention will all have heavy declines from the last game (do you think FF16+FF7R2 will sell 1.5mil each? Cuz it’s not even guaranteed for half of those sales)

TBH, ps5 can sell more than vita lifetime, and it would be a much bigger failure (in japan only). Not sure if many people see the overall picture with the scalping/software sales/etc with what’s going on with japan. You have companies that never released any games on Nintendo jumping ship. If that isn’t pointing out the obvious I don’t know what will 



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tbone51 said:
curl-6 said:

I still don't think PS5's long term situation in Japan is as dire as it seems now; it's limping in the short term, but once the chip shortage alleviates and games like FF16, Monster Hunter World's sequel, etc start to release it'll pick up the pace. Still probably gonna sell less than PS4 lifetime, but it's not the dud it appears to be on the surface.


it’s actually worse than what it seemed like last year, looking at hardware sales only is only but a small part of the entire picture. Software sales point to ps5 doing very bad overall in japan, the 1.7mil figure we don’t even know how much of that is in Japan currently, yes big games like FF16, FF7R2, MHW2, etc will give it spikes and probably do better than what it’s currently doing now but that doesn’t really make the ps5 situation any better.

Software sales are lowest Sony has ever been in japan, the games you mention will all have heavy declines from the last game (do you think FF16+FF7R2 will sell 1.5mil each? Cuz it’s not even guaranteed for half of those sales)

TBH, ps5 can sell more than vita lifetime, and it would be a much bigger failure (in japan only). Not sure if many people see the overall picture with the scalping/software sales/etc with what’s going on with japan. You have companies that never released any games on Nintendo jumping ship. If that isn’t pointing out the obvious I don’t know what will 

The current situation is the result of severe shortages, which will not last forever.

Software will improve in step with hardware once the latter is no longer strangled by the chip crisis. Expecting the PS5's current performance to continue in the long term is not logical when the circumstances that are creating it are not everlasting.

Last edited by curl-6 - on 11 July 2022

Bet with Liquidlaser: I say PS5 and Xbox Series will sell more than 56 million combined by the end of 2023. (And over 130 million lifetime)

Yeah, the situation in Japan just like everywhere else needs dust to settle so we can see what we're really looking at in terms of demand.

Inevitably though I think Playstation's future in Japan is gloomy because of the Switch 2. With diminishing returns, is there really be a point to any games being PS5 exclusive other than mainline FF and maybe MH World 2? 99% of Japanese developers have shown they simply don't have the resources or desire to really push hardware. We're going to looking at PS4 spec games for the forseeable future from most developers and not only will more games be on Switch 2, but even PS gamers may question whether graphical difference is that worthwhile to give up the flexibility of the Switch (2)



curl-6 said:
tbone51 said:


it’s actually worse than what it seemed like last year, looking at hardware sales only is only but a small part of the entire picture. Software sales point to ps5 doing very bad overall in japan, the 1.7mil figure we don’t even know how much of that is in Japan currently, yes big games like FF16, FF7R2, MHW2, etc will give it spikes and probably do better than what it’s currently doing now but that doesn’t really make the ps5 situation any better.

Software sales are lowest Sony has ever been in japan, the games you mention will all have heavy declines from the last game (do you think FF16+FF7R2 will sell 1.5mil each? Cuz it’s not even guaranteed for half of those sales)

TBH, ps5 can sell more than vita lifetime, and it would be a much bigger failure (in japan only). Not sure if many people see the overall picture with the scalping/software sales/etc with what’s going on with japan. You have companies that never released any games on Nintendo jumping ship. If that isn’t pointing out the obvious I don’t know what will 

The current situation is the result of severe shortages, which will not last forever.

Software will improve in step with hardware once the latter is no longer strangled by the chip crisis. Expecting the PS5's current performance to continue in the long term is not logical when the circumstances that are creating it are over everlasting.

How?

The market reality go in another direction.

Ps5 lost customers now, sales declined, and this consumer no goes back because Nintendo is dominated software sales. Sony losing retail space and losing japan and the east Asia market.

Software improvement doesn´t remedy this situation. Because the majority of games were on market leader. 

Wait magic when market reality will be this until 2024 and macroeconomics trend benefices more Nintendo and Xbox is wishful thinking and sony enters in a circle of decline, the software sales is low than Dreamcast and Xbox 360, it´s horrendous software sales and East Asia now is doomed too.  

Last edited by Agente42 - on 11 July 2022

So if the hardware situation improves, will the software sales situation really improve? Nintendo Switch has basically occupied close to 20 of the top 30 best selling titles on the weekly charts in Famitsu for the majority of its life. This basically makes Switch the de facto console in Japan. I don’t know how PC is in Japan but I doubt it even affects the Switch much there. I know digital sales are a bigger deal now than say even 5 years ago, but that still may not make up the difference as even digital sales on Switch have steadily increased so whatever releases on PS5 will still struggle to stand out on the charts in Japan.



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Agente42 said:
curl-6 said:

The current situation is the result of severe shortages, which will not last forever.

Software will improve in step with hardware once the latter is no longer strangled by the chip crisis. Expecting the PS5's current performance to continue in the long term is not logical when the circumstances that are creating it are over everlasting.

How?

The market reality go in another direction.

Ps5 lost customers now, sales declined, and this consumer no goes back because Nintendo is dominated software sales. Sony losing retail space and losing japan and the east Asia market.

Software improvement doesn´t remedy this situation. Because the majority of games were on market leader. 

Wait magic when market reality will be this until 2024 and macroeconomics trend benefices more Nintendo and Xbox is wishful thinking and sony enters in a circle of decline, the software sales is low than Dreamcast and Xbox 360, it´s horrendous software sales and East Asia now is doomed too.  

Sony is still going to get almost 100% of AAA games by default, including from Japanese developers. The likes of Capcom, Square Enix, etc, are still going to support the PS5 as if it's the market leader even if it's not.

Couple this with the current severe supply constraints easing over time, and PS5 will most likely be doing better say two years from now than currently.

Last edited by curl-6 - on 11 July 2022

Bet with Liquidlaser: I say PS5 and Xbox Series will sell more than 56 million combined by the end of 2023. (And over 130 million lifetime)

curl-6 said:
Agente42 said:

How?

The market reality go in another direction.

Ps5 lost customers now, sales declined, and this consumer no goes back because Nintendo is dominated software sales. Sony losing retail space and losing japan and the east Asia market.

Software improvement doesn´t remedy this situation. Because the majority of games were on market leader. 

Wait magic when market reality will be this until 2024 and macroeconomics trend benefices more Nintendo and Xbox is wishful thinking and sony enters in a circle of decline, the software sales is low than Dreamcast and Xbox 360, it´s horrendous software sales and East Asia now is doomed too.  

Sony is still going to get almost 100% of AAA games by default, including from Japanese developers. The likes of Capcom, Square Enix, etc, are still going to support the PS5 as if it's the market leader even if it's not.

Couple this with the current severe supply constraints easing over time, and PS5 will most likely be doing better say two years from now than currently.

What AAA games sell on Japan? Final Fantasy?

AAA games is not determined japanese market leader. Wii, DS, 3ds, and Switch don´t have AAA Japanese market. Ps4 have all third party and AA A exclusivity ( because synergy with Psvita) and yet declined. Why Ps5 will be better performance-based in nothing? Software wise in almost two years is only disaster perfomance.

What game of PS5 have 300k physical now?

Your assumption doesn´t have an anchor on the reality of the market.

PS5 can´t maintain 3 games on top 30.

This is reality of market, rest is wishful thinking based in hopes and dream, I ´m sorry. 

Last edited by Agente42 - on 11 July 2022

Agente42 said:
curl-6 said:

Sony is still going to get almost 100% of AAA games by default, including from Japanese developers. The likes of Capcom, Square Enix, etc, are still going to support the PS5 as if it's the market leader even if it's not.

Couple this with the current severe supply constraints easing over time, and PS5 will most likely be doing better say two years from now than currently.

What AAA games sell on Japan? Final Fantasy?

What game of PS5 have 300k physical now?

Your assumption doesn´t have an anchor on the reality of the market.

PS5 can´t maintain 3 games on top 30.

This is reality of market, rest is wishful thinking based in hopes and dream, I ´m sorry. 

PS5 will get the next Monster Hunter game and probably Dragon Quest 12 too given its using Unreal Engine 5, both massive system sellers.

PS5's situation now is not indicative of its long term prospects because it's situation now is the result of a severe chip shortage that will not last forever.



Bet with Liquidlaser: I say PS5 and Xbox Series will sell more than 56 million combined by the end of 2023. (And over 130 million lifetime)

curl-6 said:
Agente42 said:

What AAA games sell on Japan? Final Fantasy?

What game of PS5 have 300k physical now?

Your assumption doesn´t have an anchor on the reality of the market.

PS5 can´t maintain 3 games on top 30.

This is reality of market, rest is wishful thinking based in hopes and dream, I ´m sorry. 

PS5 will get the next Monster Hunter game and probably Dragon Quest 12 too given its using Unreal Engine 5, both massive system sellers.

PS5's situation now is not indicative of its long term prospects because it's situation now is the result of a severe chip shortage that will not last forever.

Long terms prospects without analyzing the market now is wishful thinking.

Losing the Japanese market and East Asia market.

Stronger competition ( Switch and Xbox Series)



Agente42 said:
curl-6 said:

PS5 will get the next Monster Hunter game and probably Dragon Quest 12 too given its using Unreal Engine 5, both massive system sellers.

PS5's situation now is not indicative of its long term prospects because it's situation now is the result of a severe chip shortage that will not last forever.

Long terms prospects without analyzing the market now is wishful thinking.

Losing the Japanese market and East Asia market.

Stronger competition ( Switch and Xbox Series)

The current situation is dependent on non-permanent circumstances. The chip shortage will not last forever.

And it's certainly not "wishful thinking" as I am not a Playstation fan and not really bothered if it succeeds or fails.

Last edited by curl-6 - on 12 July 2022

Bet with Liquidlaser: I say PS5 and Xbox Series will sell more than 56 million combined by the end of 2023. (And over 130 million lifetime)