By using this site, you agree to our Privacy Policy and our Terms of Use. Close

Forums - Sales Discussion - Famitsu Sales: Week 27, 2022 (Jun 27 - Jul 03)

The_Liquid_Laser said:
Norion said:

No my numbers don't assume that since I think it's likely to fall behind the PS4 by a notable amount but not by about 50%. If you think a decline that big is possible in Japan + RoW could you post a yearly sales breakdown? I wonder what you expect yearly sales in those regions combined in 2023-2029 to be for them to not exceed 10m in that period.

I expect them to finish the year at 6.8m LTD total.  After that annual sales look something like this (in millions).

Year Japan + RoW LTD
20-22 6.8 6.8
2023 1.8 8.6
2024 1.6 10.2
2025 1.3 11.5
2026 1 12.5
2027+ 3 15.5

I expect a big drop next year, and then Sony will respond with price cuts and bundles in 2024 and later to reduce the annual % drops.  (Please note that RoW does not include any of the Americas.)  Feel free to post your own annual breakdown, so we can compare sales predictions.

2023 being sub 2m is a wild prediction considering how much sales would have to suddenly decline after this year for that to happen. I'm not fully sure of my own annual breakdown but to give an attempt I expect something a lot more similar to this.

2022: 7m

2023: 10m

2024: 14m

2025: 17

2026: 19-20

2027+ 25-26m

This would be a notable decline from the PS4 but not to a nearly 50% degree since there's nothing indicating it'll decline anywhere close to that. When even the PS3 can achieve 26m Japan + RoW I don't see a world in which the PS5 falls under 20m since its sales pace so far very much indicates higher than that.



Around the Network
Norion said:
The_Liquid_Laser said:

I expect them to finish the year at 6.8m LTD total.  After that annual sales look something like this (in millions).

YearJapan + RoWLTD
20-226.86.8
20231.88.6
20241.610.2
20251.311.5
2026112.5
2027+315.5

I expect a big drop next year, and then Sony will respond with price cuts and bundles in 2024 and later to reduce the annual % drops.  (Please note that RoW does not include any of the Americas.)  Feel free to post your own annual breakdown, so we can compare sales predictions.

2023 being sub 2m is a wild prediction considering how much sales would have to suddenly decline after this year for that to happen. I'm not fully sure of my own annual breakdown but to give an attempt I expect something a lot more similar to this.

2022: 7m

2023: 10m

2024: 14m

2025: 17

2026: 19-20

2027+ 25-26m

This would be a notable decline from the PS4 but not to a nearly 50% degree since there's nothing indicating it'll decline anywhere close to that. When even the PS3 can achieve 26m Japan + RoW I don't see a world in which the PS5 falls under 20m since its sales pace so far very much indicates higher than that.

There are several indicators that PS5 will do very poorly.  However, if you are only looking at hardware numbers you won't see them.  These are more qualitative factors rather than simply looking at hardware quantities.  Here are the indicators:

-PS5 software sales are terrible, worse than the Wii U, godawful terrible
-The Switch, it's main competitor, is setting software records including the best selling game of all time in Japan, Animal Crossing
-Number of software releases continues to rise each year on Switch.  Last year number of titles released on Switch and Playstation were about the same.  In the coming years we should expect Switch to get more titles per year than Playstation.
-Playstation brand in Japan has been weakening for quite a while now.  PS4 had probably the best software lineup a home console could get in Japan, and sales still declined compared to PS3.  PS5's software situation will not be nearly so strong and it has a much tougher than the PS4 had in the Wii U. 
-Sony has basically abandoned Japan.  They closed their studio in Japan, discontinued the Vita, and now just focus on making home console games for the West.

These qualitative factors are actually more important than early hardware numbers.  It can be hard to know what is going on based purely on hardware data with a chip shortage and scalpers affecting sales numbers.  But if you just take a step back and look at qualitative factors, then you can assess whether a system is going to be great or a turd before it even hits the market.  For Generation 8, it was quite possible to predict the Wii U was going to flop and the PS4 was going to be a runaway success just based on their E3 presentations (and also XB1's presentation).  By the same token, it should be obvious (especially by now) the PS5 is not going to do well in Japan.  Software sales are terrible.  The competition is too strong.  There are a lot of chips stacked against the PS5.



The_Liquid_Laser said:
Norion said:

2023 being sub 2m is a wild prediction considering how much sales would have to suddenly decline after this year for that to happen. I'm not fully sure of my own annual breakdown but to give an attempt I expect something a lot more similar to this.

2022: 7m

2023: 10m

2024: 14m

2025: 17

2026: 19-20

2027+ 25-26m

This would be a notable decline from the PS4 but not to a nearly 50% degree since there's nothing indicating it'll decline anywhere close to that. When even the PS3 can achieve 26m Japan + RoW I don't see a world in which the PS5 falls under 20m since its sales pace so far very much indicates higher than that.

There are several indicators that PS5 will do very poorly.  However, if you are only looking at hardware numbers you won't see them.  These are more qualitative factors rather than simply looking at hardware quantities.  Here are the indicators:

-PS5 software sales are terrible, worse than the Wii U, godawful terrible
-The Switch, it's main competitor, is setting software records including the best selling game of all time in Japan, Animal Crossing
-Number of software releases continues to rise each year on Switch.  Last year number of titles released on Switch and Playstation were about the same.  In the coming years we should expect Switch to get more titles per year than Playstation.
-Playstation brand in Japan has been weakening for quite a while now.  PS4 had probably the best software lineup a home console could get in Japan, and sales still declined compared to PS3.  PS5's software situation will not be nearly so strong and it has a much tougher than the PS4 had in the Wii U. 
-Sony has basically abandoned Japan.  They closed their studio in Japan, discontinued the Vita, and now just focus on making home console games for the West.

These qualitative factors are actually more important than early hardware numbers.  It can be hard to know what is going on based purely on hardware data with a chip shortage and scalpers affecting sales numbers.  But if you just take a step back and look at qualitative factors, then you can assess whether a system is going to be great or a turd before it even hits the market.  For Generation 8, it was quite possible to predict the Wii U was going to flop and the PS4 was going to be a runaway success just based on their E3 presentations (and also XB1's presentation).  By the same token, it should be obvious (especially by now) the PS5 is not going to do well in Japan.  Software sales are terrible.  The competition is too strong.  There are a lot of chips stacked against the PS5.

It's not just about Japan though, there's also RoW and that will make up a much bigger share of Japan + RoW than the former. Even if the PS5 only does about Vita level sales in Japan RoW will still be enough to easily exceed 17m. It'll likely do more than 17m with just RoW so it flopping in Japan doesn't really make much difference to the likelihood of your prediction unless there's indicators of it also doing poorly in RoW in the future.

Last edited by Norion - on 15 July 2022

The_Liquid_Laser said:
Norion said:

2023 being sub 2m is a wild prediction considering how much sales would have to suddenly decline after this year for that to happen. I'm not fully sure of my own annual breakdown but to give an attempt I expect something a lot more similar to this.

2022: 7m

2023: 10m

2024: 14m

2025: 17

2026: 19-20

2027+ 25-26m

This would be a notable decline from the PS4 but not to a nearly 50% degree since there's nothing indicating it'll decline anywhere close to that. When even the PS3 can achieve 26m Japan + RoW I don't see a world in which the PS5 falls under 20m since its sales pace so far very much indicates higher than that.

There are several indicators that PS5 will do very poorly.  However, if you are only looking at hardware numbers you won't see them.  These are more qualitative factors rather than simply looking at hardware quantities.  Here are the indicators:

-PS5 software sales are terrible, worse than the Wii U, godawful terrible
-The Switch, it's main competitor, is setting software records including the best selling game of all time in Japan, Animal Crossing
-Number of software releases continues to rise each year on Switch.  Last year number of titles released on Switch and Playstation were about the same.  In the coming years we should expect Switch to get more titles per year than Playstation.
-Playstation brand in Japan has been weakening for quite a while now.  PS4 had probably the best software lineup a home console could get in Japan, and sales still declined compared to PS3.  PS5's software situation will not be nearly so strong and it has a much tougher than the PS4 had in the Wii U. 
-Sony has basically abandoned Japan.  They closed their studio in Japan, discontinued the Vita, and now just focus on making home console games for the West.

These qualitative factors are actually more important than early hardware numbers.  It can be hard to know what is going on based purely on hardware data with a chip shortage and scalpers affecting sales numbers.  But if you just take a step back and look at qualitative factors, then you can assess whether a system is going to be great or a turd before it even hits the market.  For Generation 8, it was quite possible to predict the Wii U was going to flop and the PS4 was going to be a runaway success just based on their E3 presentations (and also XB1's presentation).  By the same token, it should be obvious (especially by now) the PS5 is not going to do well in Japan.  Software sales are terrible.  The competition is too strong.  There are a lot of chips stacked against the PS5.

Speaking of qualitative factors, why exactly do you think PS5 software numbers are so bad compared to the actual hardware numbers? I think you're ignoring the elephant in the room...

If hardware in Japan is not representative of demand, it must be because scalping right? Scalping only persists where there is demand. We're 18months into the PS5 life, people would not be scalping unless demand  outstripped supply. Where is the demand for Japanese PS5s coming from? ROW seems likely.

So this qualitative factor you pointed out actually just ties back into the fact PS5 is nowhere near its peak in Japan + ROW. The demand in Japan is yet to be tapped because scalping, hence why there are lottories and why expensive bundles are being used to deter scalping (see GT) in the top 10.

Alternatively I'd love to hear why you think Japanese gamers are buying PS5s but not buying any games. 

Also regarding them giving up on Japan. I'd say Square Enix exclusives like FFVII remakes, FFXVI and New IPs like Forspoken are way more important for Japan than Japan studios making more Knacks and Gravity rushes. They're investing their money into Japanese games, just not in-house developed which have almost always been commercial flops. The only exception in recent decade is Ghost of Tsushima (wstern) & The Souls series. Both likely have sequels in development for PS5.

Last edited by Otter - on 16 July 2022

Norion said:
The_Liquid_Laser said:

There are several indicators that PS5 will do very poorly.  However, if you are only looking at hardware numbers you won't see them.  These are more qualitative factors rather than simply looking at hardware quantities.  Here are the indicators:

-PS5 software sales are terrible, worse than the Wii U, godawful terrible
-The Switch, it's main competitor, is setting software records including the best selling game of all time in Japan, Animal Crossing
-Number of software releases continues to rise each year on Switch.  Last year number of titles released on Switch and Playstation were about the same.  In the coming years we should expect Switch to get more titles per year than Playstation.
-Playstation brand in Japan has been weakening for quite a while now.  PS4 had probably the best software lineup a home console could get in Japan, and sales still declined compared to PS3.  PS5's software situation will not be nearly so strong and it has a much tougher than the PS4 had in the Wii U. 
-Sony has basically abandoned Japan.  They closed their studio in Japan, discontinued the Vita, and now just focus on making home console games for the West.

These qualitative factors are actually more important than early hardware numbers.  It can be hard to know what is going on based purely on hardware data with a chip shortage and scalpers affecting sales numbers.  But if you just take a step back and look at qualitative factors, then you can assess whether a system is going to be great or a turd before it even hits the market.  For Generation 8, it was quite possible to predict the Wii U was going to flop and the PS4 was going to be a runaway success just based on their E3 presentations (and also XB1's presentation).  By the same token, it should be obvious (especially by now) the PS5 is not going to do well in Japan.  Software sales are terrible.  The competition is too strong.  There are a lot of chips stacked against the PS5.

It's not just about Japan though, there's also RoW and that will make up a much bigger share of Japan + RoW than the former. Even if the PS5 only does about Vita level sales in Japan RoW will still be enough to easily exceed 17m. It'll likely do more than 17m with just RoW so it flopping in Japan doesn't really make much difference to the likelihood of your prediction unless there's indicators of it also doing poorly in RoW in the future.

Most of RoW has gaming tastes similar to Japan (S. Korea, China, Taiwan, etc...).  PS5 will not be popular there either.



Around the Network
The_Liquid_Laser said:
Norion said:

It's not just about Japan though, there's also RoW and that will make up a much bigger share of Japan + RoW than the former. Even if the PS5 only does about Vita level sales in Japan RoW will still be enough to easily exceed 17m. It'll likely do more than 17m with just RoW so it flopping in Japan doesn't really make much difference to the likelihood of your prediction unless there's indicators of it also doing poorly in RoW in the future.

Most of RoW has gaming tastes similar to Japan (S. Korea, China, Taiwan, etc...).  PS5 will not be popular there either.

Considering the PS4 is the 2nd best selling console ever in RoW and ended not that far behind the PS2 while in Japan it did worse than the PS3 it's clear that the tastes are not similar enough for the sales between the two to be linked to each other. There's also that the 360 did well in RoW and even the Xbox One did ok instead of basically not existing like in Japan so if anything there's a stronger link in sales between RoW and the west and the PS5 will definitely do better there than Japan.

Last edited by Norion - on 17 July 2022

Norion said:
The_Liquid_Laser said:

Most of RoW has gaming tastes similar to Japan (S. Korea, China, Taiwan, etc...).  PS5 will not be popular there either.

Considering the PS4 is the 2nd best selling console ever in RoW and ended not that far behind the PS2 while in Japan it did worse than the PS3 it's clear that the tastes are not similar enough for the sales between the two to be linked to each other. There's also that the 360 did well in RoW and even the Xbox One did ok instead of basically not existing like in Japan so if anything there's a stronger link in sales between RoW and the west and the PS5 will definitely do better there than Japan.

Media Create Sales (Taiwan): CY 2021 (2021 Jan 04 - 2022 Jan 02)

SOFTWARE

01. NSW - 1.217.524 <71,84%>
02. PS4 - 343.281 <20,25%>
03. PS5 - 131.162 <7,74%>
04. XBS - 2.893 <0,17%>
00. ALL - 1.694.860 <100,00%>

Hardware

|System | This CY | Last CY |
| NSW # | 239.370 | 330.558 |
| PS5 # | 45.914 | 10.168 |
| XBS # | 3.678 | 2.130 |
| PS4 # | 3.613 | 34.206 |


Media Create Sales (South Korea): CY 2021 (2021 Jan 04 - 2022 Jan 02)
(No data for Microsoft in South Korea)

SOFTWARE

01. NSW - 2.493.299 <87,12%>
02. PS4 - 231.429 <8,09%>
03. PS5 - 114.872 <4,01%>
04. 3DS - 22.203 <0,78%>
00. ALL - 2.861.803 <100,00%>

HARDWARE
|System | This CY | Last CY |
| NSW # | 627.002 | 762.953 |
| PS5 # | 136.012 | 37.689 |
| PS4 # | 4.221 | 42.350 |



Agente42 said:
Norion said:

Considering the PS4 is the 2nd best selling console ever in RoW and ended not that far behind the PS2 while in Japan it did worse than the PS3 it's clear that the tastes are not similar enough for the sales between the two to be linked to each other. There's also that the 360 did well in RoW and even the Xbox One did ok instead of basically not existing like in Japan so if anything there's a stronger link in sales between RoW and the west and the PS5 will definitely do better there than Japan.

Media Create Sales (Taiwan): CY 2021 (2021 Jan 04 - 2022 Jan 02)

SOFTWARE

01. NSW - 1.217.524 <71,84%>
02. PS4 - 343.281 <20,25%>
03. PS5 - 131.162 <7,74%>
04. XBS - 2.893 <0,17%>
00. ALL - 1.694.860 <100,00%>

Hardware

|System | This CY | Last CY |
| NSW # | 239.370 | 330.558 |
| PS5 # | 45.914 | 10.168 |
| XBS # | 3.678 | 2.130 |
| PS4 # | 3.613 | 34.206 |


Media Create Sales (South Korea): CY 2021 (2021 Jan 04 - 2022 Jan 02)
(No data for Microsoft in South Korea)

SOFTWARE

01. NSW - 2.493.299 <87,12%>
02. PS4 - 231.429 <8,09%>
03. PS5 - 114.872 <4,01%>
04. 3DS - 22.203 <0,78%>
00. ALL - 2.861.803 <100,00%>

HARDWARE
|System | This CY | Last CY |
| NSW # | 627.002 | 762.953 |
| PS5 # | 136.012 | 37.689 |
| PS4 # | 4.221 | 42.350 |

PS5  131.162

 PS5  45.914  10.168

2.85 SW Ratio

PS5 114.872

 PS5   136.012  37.689

.84 SW Ratio

Crazy difference in SW Ratio there. WTH is Sony doing in SK?