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Forums - Sales Discussion - Famitsu Sales: Week 27, 2022 (Jun 27 - Jul 03)

Wyrdness said:
Kai_Mao said:

I’m not holding my breath for SFVI considering how important the tournament circuit is for the series and how Capcom developed SFV (though I’m not sure if Sony paid for full console exclusivity so it wouldn’t ever come to Xbox). Plus Capcom didn’t even care to port SFIV on Switch, even though it got a late port on PS4.

Even games like Soul Hackers 2 is not coming to Switch (at this time). As I mentioned before, the SMT V performance on Switch (in terms of how it ran, not it’s sales) might’ve made some nervous about Soul Hackers 2 on Switch.

Again, I point out certain games that could’ve/should’ve made it to Switch but didn’t for one reason or another. I even doubt the next Tekken or Tales of game will come to the Switch successor when they get announced eventually. The mix results of incredible ports and missed opportunities sorta cloud my perception on how third parties will proceed with a more powerful Switch successor.

PS4 got a port of SF4 at its launch which is around four years before Switch even launched hardly a good example, Soul Hackers may not at the moment be on the platform but a bigger series in mainline Persona is signalling things going forward. You forget that the Switch was a platform many wrote off, the reason you're seeing it get the library it has is because developers are having a harder time ignoring it due to the success and the same will go for the successor we aren't in the era of developers going by their own preferences anymore look at Falcom for one they don't want to do games for any Nintendo platform but business forces it.

Tekken is big enough to maybe skip the platform but games like Tales will have a harder time doing so if anything it will be one of two things where the next game is on the successor or it gets a ground up game of its own much like what happened on the Wii with graces. 

But Switch hasn’t gotten one yet outside of the Vesperia remaster. I thought there was a supposed to be one planned (unless they were just talking about the Vesperia remaster), but I doubt it’s happening at this point.

Anyway, I’m still a bit skeptical. As I mentioned before, there are some missed opportunities on Switch and I don’t know if those would be made up when the successor arrives. Unless I see support ready for the Switch successor of some of the games I’ve mentioned within a year or two of it’s life, I’m just not holding my breath. Like for SFVI, for example, it’s not held back by Sony’s exclusivity anymore, but I don’t know if Capcom would care to port it to the Switch successor say in 2024 due to the competitive scene being established for that game by that point (unless they release the inevitable Champion Edition by then).



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Norion said:
The_Liquid_Laser said:

Your numbers assume that people in Japan and RoW want the PS5 as much as they want the PS4.  The reality is that they don't.

No my numbers don't assume that since I think it's likely to fall behind the PS4 by a notable amount but not by about 50%. If you think a decline that big is possible in Japan + RoW could you post a yearly sales breakdown? I wonder what you expect yearly sales in those regions combined in 2023-2029 to be for them to not exceed 10m in that period.

I expect them to finish the year at 6.8m LTD total.  After that annual sales look something like this (in millions).

YearJapan + RoWLTD
20-226.86.8
20231.88.6
20241.610.2
20251.311.5
2026112.5
2027+315.5

I expect a big drop next year, and then Sony will respond with price cuts and bundles in 2024 and later to reduce the annual % drops.  (Please note that RoW does not include any of the Americas.)  Feel free to post your own annual breakdown, so we can compare sales predictions.



Kai_Mao said:
Wyrdness said:

PS4 got a port of SF4 at its launch which is around four years before Switch even launched hardly a good example, Soul Hackers may not at the moment be on the platform but a bigger series in mainline Persona is signalling things going forward. You forget that the Switch was a platform many wrote off, the reason you're seeing it get the library it has is because developers are having a harder time ignoring it due to the success and the same will go for the successor we aren't in the era of developers going by their own preferences anymore look at Falcom for one they don't want to do games for any Nintendo platform but business forces it.

Tekken is big enough to maybe skip the platform but games like Tales will have a harder time doing so if anything it will be one of two things where the next game is on the successor or it gets a ground up game of its own much like what happened on the Wii with graces. 

But Switch hasn’t gotten one yet outside of the Vesperia remaster. I thought there was a supposed to be one planned (unless they were just talking about the Vesperia remaster), but I doubt it’s happening at this point.

Anyway, I’m still a bit skeptical. As I mentioned before, there are some missed opportunities on Switch and I don’t know if those would be made up when the successor arrives. Unless I see support ready for the Switch successor of some of the games I’ve mentioned within a year or two of it’s life, I’m just not holding my breath. Like for SFVI, for example, it’s not held back by Sony’s exclusivity anymore, but I don’t know if Capcom would care to port it to the Switch successor say in 2024 due to the competitive scene being established for that game by that point (unless they release the inevitable Champion Edition by then).

Vesperia remaster is the only other Tales game released in fact the have only been two Tales games on consoles the whole gen.

The competitive scene cost money they don't make companies money have you followed the competitive scene in recent years? Capcom recently put in place strict requirements for using their games at a tournament, the reason for this are the costs and the realization Smash has given other companies in that more money is made by sales than tournaments.

They don't need owners of a Switch successor to be part of the tournament scene they just need them to buy the game. 



The_Liquid_Laser said:
Norion said:

It's already at about 5m in those combined and should be over 7m by the end of this year so I don't see how it could fail to do another 10m in the next few years after doing 7m in just two.

Your numbers assume that people in Japan and RoW want the PS5 as much as they want the PS4.  The reality is that they don't.

Those numbers assume that PS5 isn't just going to fall of a cliff in terms of demand in 2023 when its actual system sellers arrive & in future years when it has price cuts/hardware revisions. If its alredy sold 5m in 18months supply constrained, full price and with barely any next gen exclusives exclusives, Its hard to imagine selling less than 15m over 7 years.

Up until now, 95% of games have been cross gen. Were seeing the end of that with Resident Evil 4 remake, Avatar, Gotham knights, Forspoken, Final Fantasy XVI, Spiderman 2, suicide Squad, Final Fantasy, knights of the old Republic, VII Rebirth and they'll be much more.  But we think sales are going to nose dive? 

I feel like people are more projecting their personal feelings onto the PS5 versus just making reasonable projections of its performance thus far & what's yet to cone software wise etc . Anyway, if that's your projection we'll wait and see.

Last edited by Otter - on 15 July 2022

Otter said:
The_Liquid_Laser said:

Your numbers assume that people in Japan and RoW want the PS5 as much as they want the PS4.  The reality is that they don't.

Those numbers assume that PS5 isn't just going to fall of a cliff in terms of demand in 2023 when its actual system sellers arrive & in future years when it has price cuts/hardware revisions. If its alredy sold 5m in 18months supply constrained, full price and with barely any next gen exclusives exclusives, Its hard to imagine selling less than 15m over 7 years.

Up until now, 95% of games have been cross gen. Were seeing the end of that with Resident Evil 4 remake, Avatar, Gotham knights, Forspoken, Final Fantasy XVI, Spiderman 2, suicide Squad, Final Fantasy, knights of the old Republic, VII Rebirth and they'll be much more.  But we think sales are going to nose dive? 

I feel like people are more projecting their feelings on the PS5 versus just making reasonable projections of its performance thus far. Anyway, if that's your projection we'll wait and see.

He has a bet with curl that ps5 and xbox series would sell less than 56 million by the end of 2023. Currently both are at 36 million combined and will be well over 50 million by the end of 2022!



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The_Liquid_Laser said:
Norion said:

No my numbers don't assume that since I think it's likely to fall behind the PS4 by a notable amount but not by about 50%. If you think a decline that big is possible in Japan + RoW could you post a yearly sales breakdown? I wonder what you expect yearly sales in those regions combined in 2023-2029 to be for them to not exceed 10m in that period.

I expect them to finish the year at 6.8m LTD total.  After that annual sales look something like this (in millions).

Year Japan + RoW LTD
20-22 6.8 6.8
2023 1.8 8.6
2024 1.6 10.2
2025 1.3 11.5
2026 1 12.5
2027+ 3 15.5

I expect a big drop next year, and then Sony will respond with price cuts and bundles in 2024 and later to reduce the annual % drops.  (Please note that RoW does not include any of the Americas.)  Feel free to post your own annual breakdown, so we can compare sales predictions.

2023 being sub 2m is a wild prediction considering how much sales would have to suddenly decline after this year for that to happen. I'm not fully sure of my own annual breakdown but to give an attempt I expect something a lot more similar to this.

2022: 7m

2023: 10m

2024: 14m

2025: 17

2026: 19-20

2027+ 25-26m

This would be a notable decline from the PS4 but not to a nearly 50% degree since there's nothing indicating it'll decline anywhere close to that. When even the PS3 can achieve 26m Japan + RoW I don't see a world in which the PS5 falls under 20m since its sales pace so far very much indicates higher than that.



Norion said:
The_Liquid_Laser said:

I expect them to finish the year at 6.8m LTD total.  After that annual sales look something like this (in millions).

YearJapan + RoWLTD
20-226.86.8
20231.88.6
20241.610.2
20251.311.5
2026112.5
2027+315.5

I expect a big drop next year, and then Sony will respond with price cuts and bundles in 2024 and later to reduce the annual % drops.  (Please note that RoW does not include any of the Americas.)  Feel free to post your own annual breakdown, so we can compare sales predictions.

2023 being sub 2m is a wild prediction considering how much sales would have to suddenly decline after this year for that to happen. I'm not fully sure of my own annual breakdown but to give an attempt I expect something a lot more similar to this.

2022: 7m

2023: 10m

2024: 14m

2025: 17

2026: 19-20

2027+ 25-26m

This would be a notable decline from the PS4 but not to a nearly 50% degree since there's nothing indicating it'll decline anywhere close to that. When even the PS3 can achieve 26m Japan + RoW I don't see a world in which the PS5 falls under 20m since its sales pace so far very much indicates higher than that.

There are several indicators that PS5 will do very poorly.  However, if you are only looking at hardware numbers you won't see them.  These are more qualitative factors rather than simply looking at hardware quantities.  Here are the indicators:

-PS5 software sales are terrible, worse than the Wii U, godawful terrible
-The Switch, it's main competitor, is setting software records including the best selling game of all time in Japan, Animal Crossing
-Number of software releases continues to rise each year on Switch.  Last year number of titles released on Switch and Playstation were about the same.  In the coming years we should expect Switch to get more titles per year than Playstation.
-Playstation brand in Japan has been weakening for quite a while now.  PS4 had probably the best software lineup a home console could get in Japan, and sales still declined compared to PS3.  PS5's software situation will not be nearly so strong and it has a much tougher than the PS4 had in the Wii U. 
-Sony has basically abandoned Japan.  They closed their studio in Japan, discontinued the Vita, and now just focus on making home console games for the West.

These qualitative factors are actually more important than early hardware numbers.  It can be hard to know what is going on based purely on hardware data with a chip shortage and scalpers affecting sales numbers.  But if you just take a step back and look at qualitative factors, then you can assess whether a system is going to be great or a turd before it even hits the market.  For Generation 8, it was quite possible to predict the Wii U was going to flop and the PS4 was going to be a runaway success just based on their E3 presentations (and also XB1's presentation).  By the same token, it should be obvious (especially by now) the PS5 is not going to do well in Japan.  Software sales are terrible.  The competition is too strong.  There are a lot of chips stacked against the PS5.



The_Liquid_Laser said:
Norion said:

2023 being sub 2m is a wild prediction considering how much sales would have to suddenly decline after this year for that to happen. I'm not fully sure of my own annual breakdown but to give an attempt I expect something a lot more similar to this.

2022: 7m

2023: 10m

2024: 14m

2025: 17

2026: 19-20

2027+ 25-26m

This would be a notable decline from the PS4 but not to a nearly 50% degree since there's nothing indicating it'll decline anywhere close to that. When even the PS3 can achieve 26m Japan + RoW I don't see a world in which the PS5 falls under 20m since its sales pace so far very much indicates higher than that.

There are several indicators that PS5 will do very poorly.  However, if you are only looking at hardware numbers you won't see them.  These are more qualitative factors rather than simply looking at hardware quantities.  Here are the indicators:

-PS5 software sales are terrible, worse than the Wii U, godawful terrible
-The Switch, it's main competitor, is setting software records including the best selling game of all time in Japan, Animal Crossing
-Number of software releases continues to rise each year on Switch.  Last year number of titles released on Switch and Playstation were about the same.  In the coming years we should expect Switch to get more titles per year than Playstation.
-Playstation brand in Japan has been weakening for quite a while now.  PS4 had probably the best software lineup a home console could get in Japan, and sales still declined compared to PS3.  PS5's software situation will not be nearly so strong and it has a much tougher than the PS4 had in the Wii U. 
-Sony has basically abandoned Japan.  They closed their studio in Japan, discontinued the Vita, and now just focus on making home console games for the West.

These qualitative factors are actually more important than early hardware numbers.  It can be hard to know what is going on based purely on hardware data with a chip shortage and scalpers affecting sales numbers.  But if you just take a step back and look at qualitative factors, then you can assess whether a system is going to be great or a turd before it even hits the market.  For Generation 8, it was quite possible to predict the Wii U was going to flop and the PS4 was going to be a runaway success just based on their E3 presentations (and also XB1's presentation).  By the same token, it should be obvious (especially by now) the PS5 is not going to do well in Japan.  Software sales are terrible.  The competition is too strong.  There are a lot of chips stacked against the PS5.

It's not just about Japan though, there's also RoW and that will make up a much bigger share of Japan + RoW than the former. Even if the PS5 only does about Vita level sales in Japan RoW will still be enough to easily exceed 17m. It'll likely do more than 17m with just RoW so it flopping in Japan doesn't really make much difference to the likelihood of your prediction unless there's indicators of it also doing poorly in RoW in the future.

Last edited by Norion - on 15 July 2022

The_Liquid_Laser said:
Norion said:

2023 being sub 2m is a wild prediction considering how much sales would have to suddenly decline after this year for that to happen. I'm not fully sure of my own annual breakdown but to give an attempt I expect something a lot more similar to this.

2022: 7m

2023: 10m

2024: 14m

2025: 17

2026: 19-20

2027+ 25-26m

This would be a notable decline from the PS4 but not to a nearly 50% degree since there's nothing indicating it'll decline anywhere close to that. When even the PS3 can achieve 26m Japan + RoW I don't see a world in which the PS5 falls under 20m since its sales pace so far very much indicates higher than that.

There are several indicators that PS5 will do very poorly.  However, if you are only looking at hardware numbers you won't see them.  These are more qualitative factors rather than simply looking at hardware quantities.  Here are the indicators:

-PS5 software sales are terrible, worse than the Wii U, godawful terrible
-The Switch, it's main competitor, is setting software records including the best selling game of all time in Japan, Animal Crossing
-Number of software releases continues to rise each year on Switch.  Last year number of titles released on Switch and Playstation were about the same.  In the coming years we should expect Switch to get more titles per year than Playstation.
-Playstation brand in Japan has been weakening for quite a while now.  PS4 had probably the best software lineup a home console could get in Japan, and sales still declined compared to PS3.  PS5's software situation will not be nearly so strong and it has a much tougher than the PS4 had in the Wii U. 
-Sony has basically abandoned Japan.  They closed their studio in Japan, discontinued the Vita, and now just focus on making home console games for the West.

These qualitative factors are actually more important than early hardware numbers.  It can be hard to know what is going on based purely on hardware data with a chip shortage and scalpers affecting sales numbers.  But if you just take a step back and look at qualitative factors, then you can assess whether a system is going to be great or a turd before it even hits the market.  For Generation 8, it was quite possible to predict the Wii U was going to flop and the PS4 was going to be a runaway success just based on their E3 presentations (and also XB1's presentation).  By the same token, it should be obvious (especially by now) the PS5 is not going to do well in Japan.  Software sales are terrible.  The competition is too strong.  There are a lot of chips stacked against the PS5.

Speaking of qualitative factors, why exactly do you think PS5 software numbers are so bad compared to the actual hardware numbers? I think you're ignoring the elephant in the room...

If hardware in Japan is not representative of demand, it must be because scalping right? Scalping only persists where there is demand. We're 18months into the PS5 life, people would not be scalping unless demand  outstripped supply. Where is the demand for Japanese PS5s coming from? ROW seems likely.

So this qualitative factor you pointed out actually just ties back into the fact PS5 is nowhere near its peak in Japan + ROW. The demand in Japan is yet to be tapped because scalping, hence why there are lottories and why expensive bundles are being used to deter scalping (see GT) in the top 10.

Alternatively I'd love to hear why you think Japanese gamers are buying PS5s but not buying any games. 

Also regarding them giving up on Japan. I'd say Square Enix exclusives like FFVII remakes, FFXVI and New IPs like Forspoken are way more important for Japan than Japan studios making more Knacks and Gravity rushes. They're investing their money into Japanese games, just not in-house developed which have almost always been commercial flops. The only exception in recent decade is Ghost of Tsushima (wstern) & The Souls series. Both likely have sequels in development for PS5.

Last edited by Otter - on 16 July 2022

Norion said:
The_Liquid_Laser said:

There are several indicators that PS5 will do very poorly.  However, if you are only looking at hardware numbers you won't see them.  These are more qualitative factors rather than simply looking at hardware quantities.  Here are the indicators:

-PS5 software sales are terrible, worse than the Wii U, godawful terrible
-The Switch, it's main competitor, is setting software records including the best selling game of all time in Japan, Animal Crossing
-Number of software releases continues to rise each year on Switch.  Last year number of titles released on Switch and Playstation were about the same.  In the coming years we should expect Switch to get more titles per year than Playstation.
-Playstation brand in Japan has been weakening for quite a while now.  PS4 had probably the best software lineup a home console could get in Japan, and sales still declined compared to PS3.  PS5's software situation will not be nearly so strong and it has a much tougher than the PS4 had in the Wii U. 
-Sony has basically abandoned Japan.  They closed their studio in Japan, discontinued the Vita, and now just focus on making home console games for the West.

These qualitative factors are actually more important than early hardware numbers.  It can be hard to know what is going on based purely on hardware data with a chip shortage and scalpers affecting sales numbers.  But if you just take a step back and look at qualitative factors, then you can assess whether a system is going to be great or a turd before it even hits the market.  For Generation 8, it was quite possible to predict the Wii U was going to flop and the PS4 was going to be a runaway success just based on their E3 presentations (and also XB1's presentation).  By the same token, it should be obvious (especially by now) the PS5 is not going to do well in Japan.  Software sales are terrible.  The competition is too strong.  There are a lot of chips stacked against the PS5.

It's not just about Japan though, there's also RoW and that will make up a much bigger share of Japan + RoW than the former. Even if the PS5 only does about Vita level sales in Japan RoW will still be enough to easily exceed 17m. It'll likely do more than 17m with just RoW so it flopping in Japan doesn't really make much difference to the likelihood of your prediction unless there's indicators of it also doing poorly in RoW in the future.

Most of RoW has gaming tastes similar to Japan (S. Korea, China, Taiwan, etc...).  PS5 will not be popular there either.