Famitsu Sales: Week 27, 2022 (Jun 27 - Jul 03)

[Norion]

The_Liquid_Laser said:

Norion said:

No my numbers don't assume that since I think it's likely to fall behind the PS4 by a notable amount but not by about 50%. If you think a decline that big is possible in Japan + RoW could you post a yearly sales breakdown? I wonder what you expect yearly sales in those regions combined in 2023-2029 to be for them to not exceed 10m in that period.

I expect them to finish the year at 6.8m LTD total.  After that annual sales look something like this (in millions).

Year	Japan + RoW	LTD
20-22	6.8	6.8
2023	1.8	8.6
2024	1.6	10.2
2025	1.3	11.5
2026	1	12.5
2027+	3	15.5

I expect a big drop next year, and then Sony will respond with price cuts and bundles in 2024 and later to reduce the annual % drops.  (Please note that RoW does not include any of the Americas.)  Feel free to post your own annual breakdown, so we can compare sales predictions.

2023 being sub 2m is a wild prediction considering how much sales would have to suddenly decline after this year for that to happen. I'm not fully sure of my own annual breakdown but to give an attempt I expect something a lot more similar to this.

2022: 7m

2023: 10m

2024: 14m

2025: 17

2026: 19-20

2027+ 25-26m

This would be a notable decline from the PS4 but not to a nearly 50% degree since there's nothing indicating it'll decline anywhere close to that. When even the PS3 can achieve 26m Japan + RoW I don't see a world in which the PS5 falls under 20m since its sales pace so far very much indicates higher than that.