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Forums - Sales Discussion - Famitsu Sales: Week 27, 2022 (Jun 27 - Jul 03)

ZhugeEX

Non bundled PS5 stock in mainland China has been very healthy for the past week.
Huge restock via online channels at the end of June and no sell out since.



Still people talk about scalping, its an excuse that's becoming old especially when scalping also was present in previous generations.






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konnichiwa said:

ZhugeEX

Non bundled PS5 stock in mainland China has been very healthy for the past week.
Huge restock via online channels at the end of June and no sell out since.



Still people talk about scalping, its an excuse that's becoming old especially when scalping also was present in previous generations.

It´s not a total excuse when retailers try to block this with bundles.

And with white paper demonstrate that physical sales plummeted hard. 

The complementary was the MTX, free games on the mix and you have PS5 situation on Japan.



Does anyone have the percentages of the hardware being scalped from each manufacturer? I'm curious to see which one has the highest demand for scalping.



...to avoid getting banned for inactivity, I may have to resort to comments that are of a lower overall quality and or beneath my moral standards.

RolStoppable said:
Farsala said:

Also begs the question of how many Switch have been sent to China over the years?

An analyst firm had estimated 4m in China, including the grey market, when official Switch shipments had crossed 1m not too long before that. IIRC, this estimate was LTD at the end of 2021. So 2.5m+ consoles imported to China over the years, the lion share of which should have been first bought in Japan. How accurate this estimate is is anybody's guess, but at least we know that it took a few years before Switch officially launched in China, so imports outpacing official shipments isn't farfetched. 2.5m+ might still be too much of a stretch though.

Otter said:

Hmm, im not buying the explanations of Xbox's numbers. I think there is likely natural growth but not to the extent where its selling 12k in a random week

I think people are really overestimating the appeal of gamepass. Xbox is essentially seeing more than a 1000× increase in interest with a console which apparently has no games that appeal to the market, with supposed increased competition from PC. I don't believe people are buying it to play popular free to play games they already have on PS4.

Maybe series S has some magic appeal but when when stock is available for the X it also does especially well. The ready availability of Xbox series in thr UK for example shows that growth of the Xbox brand ascend in Japan is unlike any other market.

It could be that that lack of PS5 stock is driving people towards alternatives but again this dynamic isn't being seeing as strongly in other major markets (as seen by available series stock elsewhere ). Secondly even in weeks with good PS5 stock were seeing massive Series numbers. This would imply that there is a big appetite for PS5/Series in Japan, more so than there was for PS4...

When combined with the PS5 hardware situation (poor attach ratio), it seems more likely that international scalping is driving the growth.


A good metric to get might be the sales of Series Accessories in the Japanese market/their ranking on amazon.

Scalping is certainly the main driver for the Xbox sales we are seeing in Japan.

How exactly do you guys think that scalping works?



it also doesn't help that consoles are very cheap in japan comparitivly...



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I still don't think PS5's long term situation in Japan is as dire as it seems now; it's limping in the short term, but once the chip shortage alleviates and games like FF16, Monster Hunter World's sequel, etc start to release it'll pick up the pace. Still probably gonna sell less than PS4 lifetime, but it's not the dud it appears to be on the surface.

Last edited by curl-6 - on 10 July 2022

Bet with Liquidlaser: I say PS5 and Xbox Series will sell more than 56 million combined by the end of 2023. (And over 130 million lifetime)

curl-6 said:

I still don't think PS5's long term situation in Japan is as dire as it seems now; it's limping in the short term, but once the chip shortage alleviates and games like FF16, Monster Hunter World's sequel, etc start to release it'll pick up the pace. Still probably gonna sell less than PS4 lifetime, but it's not the dud it appears to be on the surface.


it’s actually worse than what it seemed like last year, looking at hardware sales only is only but a small part of the entire picture. Software sales point to ps5 doing very bad overall in japan, the 1.7mil figure we don’t even know how much of that is in Japan currently, yes big games like FF16, FF7R2, MHW2, etc will give it spikes and probably do better than what it’s currently doing now but that doesn’t really make the ps5 situation any better.

Software sales are lowest Sony has ever been in japan, the games you mention will all have heavy declines from the last game (do you think FF16+FF7R2 will sell 1.5mil each? Cuz it’s not even guaranteed for half of those sales)

TBH, ps5 can sell more than vita lifetime, and it would be a much bigger failure (in japan only). Not sure if many people see the overall picture with the scalping/software sales/etc with what’s going on with japan. You have companies that never released any games on Nintendo jumping ship. If that isn’t pointing out the obvious I don’t know what will 



tbone51 said:
curl-6 said:

I still don't think PS5's long term situation in Japan is as dire as it seems now; it's limping in the short term, but once the chip shortage alleviates and games like FF16, Monster Hunter World's sequel, etc start to release it'll pick up the pace. Still probably gonna sell less than PS4 lifetime, but it's not the dud it appears to be on the surface.


it’s actually worse than what it seemed like last year, looking at hardware sales only is only but a small part of the entire picture. Software sales point to ps5 doing very bad overall in japan, the 1.7mil figure we don’t even know how much of that is in Japan currently, yes big games like FF16, FF7R2, MHW2, etc will give it spikes and probably do better than what it’s currently doing now but that doesn’t really make the ps5 situation any better.

Software sales are lowest Sony has ever been in japan, the games you mention will all have heavy declines from the last game (do you think FF16+FF7R2 will sell 1.5mil each? Cuz it’s not even guaranteed for half of those sales)

TBH, ps5 can sell more than vita lifetime, and it would be a much bigger failure (in japan only). Not sure if many people see the overall picture with the scalping/software sales/etc with what’s going on with japan. You have companies that never released any games on Nintendo jumping ship. If that isn’t pointing out the obvious I don’t know what will 

The current situation is the result of severe shortages, which will not last forever.

Software will improve in step with hardware once the latter is no longer strangled by the chip crisis. Expecting the PS5's current performance to continue in the long term is not logical when the circumstances that are creating it are not everlasting.

Last edited by curl-6 - on 11 July 2022

Bet with Liquidlaser: I say PS5 and Xbox Series will sell more than 56 million combined by the end of 2023. (And over 130 million lifetime)

Yeah, the situation in Japan just like everywhere else needs dust to settle so we can see what we're really looking at in terms of demand.

Inevitably though I think Playstation's future in Japan is gloomy because of the Switch 2. With diminishing returns, is there really be a point to any games being PS5 exclusive other than mainline FF and maybe MH World 2? 99% of Japanese developers have shown they simply don't have the resources or desire to really push hardware. We're going to looking at PS4 spec games for the forseeable future from most developers and not only will more games be on Switch 2, but even PS gamers may question whether graphical difference is that worthwhile to give up the flexibility of the Switch (2)



curl-6 said:
tbone51 said:


it’s actually worse than what it seemed like last year, looking at hardware sales only is only but a small part of the entire picture. Software sales point to ps5 doing very bad overall in japan, the 1.7mil figure we don’t even know how much of that is in Japan currently, yes big games like FF16, FF7R2, MHW2, etc will give it spikes and probably do better than what it’s currently doing now but that doesn’t really make the ps5 situation any better.

Software sales are lowest Sony has ever been in japan, the games you mention will all have heavy declines from the last game (do you think FF16+FF7R2 will sell 1.5mil each? Cuz it’s not even guaranteed for half of those sales)

TBH, ps5 can sell more than vita lifetime, and it would be a much bigger failure (in japan only). Not sure if many people see the overall picture with the scalping/software sales/etc with what’s going on with japan. You have companies that never released any games on Nintendo jumping ship. If that isn’t pointing out the obvious I don’t know what will 

The current situation is the result of severe shortages, which will not last forever.

Software will improve in step with hardware once the latter is no longer strangled by the chip crisis. Expecting the PS5's current performance to continue in the long term is not logical when the circumstances that are creating it are over everlasting.

How?

The market reality go in another direction.

Ps5 lost customers now, sales declined, and this consumer no goes back because Nintendo is dominated software sales. Sony losing retail space and losing japan and the east Asia market.

Software improvement doesn´t remedy this situation. Because the majority of games were on market leader. 

Wait magic when market reality will be this until 2024 and macroeconomics trend benefices more Nintendo and Xbox is wishful thinking and sony enters in a circle of decline, the software sales is low than Dreamcast and Xbox 360, it´s horrendous software sales and East Asia now is doomed too.  

Last edited by Agente42 - on 11 July 2022