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Otter on 12 July 2022
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The_Liquid_Laser said:
curl-6 said:

Sony is still going to get almost 100% of AAA games by default, including from Japanese developers. The likes of Capcom, Square Enix, etc, are still going to support the PS5 as if it's the market leader even if it's not.

Couple this with the current severe supply constraints easing over time, and PS5 will most likely be doing better say two years from now than currently.

This is not reality.  Most of the big selling titles, the ones that sell 3m+ in Japan, are published by Nintendo (or Pokemon Co.).  The Switch is full of these kind of titles: Pokemon, Smash Bros, Mario Kart, Animal Crossing, Splatoon, etc....  Switch is getting 3 titles like this in 2022 alone.

Meanwhile, PS5 will be lucky to get one 3m+ seller, and it will be the next Monster Hunter.  That is assuming the PS5 doesn't hold MH back so much that it underperforms like everything else so far.  DQ12 will be on a Nintendo system, either Switch or Switch 2.  It will probably be on PS5 as well, but it won't really move systems, because most people will buy it on a Nintendo system instead.

When you have all of the big selling titles on Switch, it really shows why PS5 software isn't selling.  Why buy a PS5?  For the Japanese, there really isn't a good reason.  All of the biggest games are on Switch.  People don't need a PS5.  And since software is selling so badly on PS5, more and more third party games are being moved to Switch every year.  There really isn't much of a reason for people in Japan to get a PS5.

Except it is and and you've said nothing to negate Curls point. You're talking about Japans best selling games (3m+), but Curl is talking about third party AAAs. Sony will continue to get most of the AAA games and fulfil that audience which is why Elden Ring, Resident Evil 8, Resident Evil 4, Final Fantasy XVI, Street Fight VI, Forspoken, Tales of Arise, Soul Hacker 2, Star Ocean 6 and a bunch of other games are not coming  the Switch. Japanese developers will still put Playstation on a pedestal because many of these games get the majority of their sales outside of the Japan where they've had plenty of success on Playstation.

RE Monster Hunter World, 90% of the games sales came from outside of Japan. The Japanese market is not dictating what platform it arrives on. The franchise now has a 20m seller and it done it without a Nintendo platform. 

The 3rd party dynamic puts a floor on how bad Playstation can do in Japan but Switch 2 can disrupt that but PS5 will have a few years to establish itself before that is a threat. 

Last edited by Otter - on 12 July 2022