By using this site, you agree to our Privacy Policy and our Terms of Use. Close

Forums - Nintendo Discussion - Nintendo Quarterly Sales Update: (To 31st March 2022) Switch at 107.65m shipped

I don't think the OLED model is gonna get a price cut, since it already has a lower profit margin than the other models.



Around the Network
RolStoppable said:
Farsala said:

He specifically said 6th fiscal year, so I assumed he knew what he was talking about.

Well the decline isn't so steady. The reason I find Nintendo's forecast to be so surprising is due to this type of decline for the whole FY.

Japan: -22%

Americas: -22%

Europe: -16%

Others: -22%

Nintendo expects overall -9% for the next FY.  Somehow Nintendo has to stabilize the decline. A -9% decline in all regions would look like this.

Japan: 4.7m

Americas: 8.0m

Europe: 5.5m

Others: 2.8m

Keep in mind Nintendo has not started Calendar year 2022 with only a -9% decline.

Japan: -25%

Americas: -9%

Europe: -29%

Others: +18%

Still, I have to assume Nintendo knows a lot more about it than me.

The 22% decline is a comparison to the pandemic year, so the decline looks more severe than it would have been otherwise. Switch did not need the pandemic boost to home entertainment to best its previous fiscal year of 21m (ending March 2020), but the pandemic certainly added a couple of million units, making it a 28m year instead of a 25m year or whatever it would been otherwise. The fiscal year ending March 2022 also didn't allow Nintendo to produce as many OLED units as they wanted due to the semiconductor shortages and we can tell from Sony's PS5 performance that the quarters ending December 2021 and March 2022 were most affected by chip shortages for both manufacturers, so Switch starting the calendar year 2022 with a global decline of 15-20% isn't something to worry about when we apparently have the worst of the shortage behind us now (Sony forecasts 18m PS5s for the FY ending March 2023, a significant increase over their hampered March 2022 FY).

Nintendo certainly knows more than us, because the first party release schedule for the second half of the current FY is still mostly in the dark. Given how much they've loaded up the first half, it's fair to assume that their second half will be big too, because otherwise they would have spread out their releases more. Plus their forecast for total software shipped would have been more cautious. This is essentially the fiscal year where Nintendo's first party output will have to prove how much truth there was to Nintendo's repeated statements of giving Switch a longer lifecycle than their previous consoles, and based on the picture we have so far, it already looks to be much closer to be the truth than empty words.

So the two major points are that we are allegedly past the worst of the semiconductor shortages and Nintendo's first party release schedule being more robust than in the fiscal year before. That's how it's feasible to have only a 9% decline.

A third major point is, like in so many years before, that a price cut is doable. Lite dropping to $170, original to $250, OLED to $300. But like in so many years before, this might yet be another instance where sales remain too good to necessitate this step, so it's a lot less reliable to be counted on than the other two points. I do not count on a price cut to happen.

A decline of only 9% in Japan might seem to be least likely of all the regions, but Splatoon is disproportionally more popular in Japan, so its third installment driving OLED adoption to new heights isn't far-fetched. There's also the Monster Hunter Rise expansion launching soon, so it's not just Splatoon 3 this summer.

Sony might have secured more semiconductor lines, but it still is not peak production. Nintendo President agrees and says there is no end in sight. But again I think they know their own supply conditions better than me. I can imagine the OLED is a bit more difficult to manufacture when compared to original Switch, thus OLED hasn't overtaken it yet. However Q3 and Q4 sales weren't vastly different compared to Q2 (YoY). I think Q2 will be stronger this year, but Q1 will struggle in turn.

As a console gets older, SW sales increase but HW doesn't always follow. I believe Nintendo underestimates how much Software they will sell while overestimating Hardware.



14 ten-million-plus sellers while still having years left in the tank is just insane.

And so, of March 31st, Switch is less than 10 million from overtaking the PS4's total shipments, and just over 11 million from overtaking the Gameboy.

Fantastic numbers for Arceus, and nice to see Metroid break the franchise's sales ceiling.



Bet with Liquidlaser: I say PS5 and Xbox Series will sell more than 56 million combined by the end of 2023.

Another thing to note is that with Nintendo's projected 210 million units of software: That would put the Switch at over 1 billion software sales, becoming the very first Nintendo system to do it and to my knowledge the 3rd, 4th, or 5th overall.

How many systems overall have done it?
I know the PS2 and PS4 have done it and the PS3 was REALLY freaking close as of 2019.
https://www.sie.com/en/corporate/data.html

And the 'Software' Tab on the Platform Totals page says the 360 has also done it. But I can't find any official source from Microsoft or someone close to them to confirm that.

So the Switch will either by the 3rd, 4th, or 5th system to do it.



Congratulations to Metroid Dread  , Prime 4 will do better if everything goes well.

Pokémon Legends Arceus numbers are amazing, Let's Go and the other one will surely be surpassed, but not sure if that'll be the case with S/S.

Good start for Kirby and the Forgotten Land .



Around the Network

With 210M forecasted software sales (822M currently), next year's software sales will exceed 1 BILLION, meaning it will be the 2nd best (to PS2 - 1.5B) result in history.



Kristof81 said:

With 210M forecasted software sales (822M currently), next year's software sales will exceed 1 BILLION, meaning it will be the 2nd best (to PS2 - 1.5B) result in history.

There is still the PS4 which has software sales above 1BN but this includes digital only software and maybe DLC which afaik is not how Nintendo counts their sales. So PS4 might be in front of it, but we cannot compare their numbers.



holzi said:
Kristof81 said:

With 210M forecasted software sales (822M currently), next year's software sales will exceed 1 BILLION, meaning it will be the 2nd best (to PS2 - 1.5B) result in history.

There is still the PS4 which has software sales above 1BN but this includes digital only software and maybe DLC which afaik is not how Nintendo counts their sales. So PS4 might be in front of it, but we cannot compare their numbers.

The differing reporting methods don't allow for a 1:1 comparison, but right here it's about 1 billion software being sold and that's a value that the PS4 has definitely exceeded without the inclusion of digital-only software. So calling Switch's software total the second best in history once it has passed 1 billion is wrong.



Legend11 correctly predicted that GTA IV (360+PS3) would outsell SSBB. I was wrong.

A Biased Review Reloaded / Open Your Eyes / Switch Shipments



One interesting tidbit I've noticed in the explanatory material is that bundled games accounted for 1.5m of the software sales during the fiscal year. The vast majority of that were most likely Mario Kart 8 Deluxe bundles during the holiday season.

In any case, 1.5m bundled first party games isn't much when Nintendo's own games exceeded 100m during the fiscal year. 1.5m is approximately 1.5% of the total.

Since Switch hasn't received a typical price cut yet, it's actually more likely that we'll see value-added bundles before that. Meaning hardware prices remain what they are, but with a first party game packed in at no additional cost.



Legend11 correctly predicted that GTA IV (360+PS3) would outsell SSBB. I was wrong.

A Biased Review Reloaded / Open Your Eyes / Switch Shipments