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Forums - Nintendo Discussion - Nintendo Quarterly Sales Update: (To 31st March 2022) Switch at 107.65m shipped

This forecast really points out that they will either get really aggressive on offers or they will launch a new revision in the FY. Cause the sales rn aren't trending towards only a 3 million decrease. So to raise their forecast from 20 to 21 for next FY is an incredible sign. Switch will be close to 130 millions a year from now. It will start slowing down more at that point, but still i feel like not reaching 150 millions is nearly impossible.



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If anyone is noticing Switch numbers dropping on the front page I am making adjustments based on data from the CESA report. Don't worry I will adjust up in regions they didn't report data from (Asia, MEA, etc) as our worldwide estimates should be okay. 

For those wondering we had Switch estimates high in some countries in Europe. Germany in 2020 was the biggest overtrack. For the most part we were within 5%, but with this new data I might as well make our estimates even better. 



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RolStoppable said:
Farsala said:

He specifically said 6th fiscal year, so I assumed he knew what he was talking about.

Well the decline isn't so steady. The reason I find Nintendo's forecast to be so surprising is due to this type of decline for the whole FY.

Japan: -22%

Americas: -22%

Europe: -16%

Others: -22%

Nintendo expects overall -9% for the next FY.  Somehow Nintendo has to stabilize the decline. A -9% decline in all regions would look like this.

Japan: 4.7m

Americas: 8.0m

Europe: 5.5m

Others: 2.8m

Keep in mind Nintendo has not started Calendar year 2022 with only a -9% decline.

Japan: -25%

Americas: -9%

Europe: -29%

Others: +18%

Still, I have to assume Nintendo knows a lot more about it than me.

The 22% decline is a comparison to the pandemic year, so the decline looks more severe than it would have been otherwise. Switch did not need the pandemic boost to home entertainment to best its previous fiscal year of 21m (ending March 2020), but the pandemic certainly added a couple of million units, making it a 28m year instead of a 25m year or whatever it would been otherwise. The fiscal year ending March 2022 also didn't allow Nintendo to produce as many OLED units as they wanted due to the semiconductor shortages and we can tell from Sony's PS5 performance that the quarters ending December 2021 and March 2022 were most affected by chip shortages for both manufacturers, so Switch starting the calendar year 2022 with a global decline of 15-20% isn't something to worry about when we apparently have the worst of the shortage behind us now (Sony forecasts 18m PS5s for the FY ending March 2023, a significant increase over their hampered March 2022 FY).

Nintendo certainly knows more than us, because the first party release schedule for the second half of the current FY is still mostly in the dark. Given how much they've loaded up the first half, it's fair to assume that their second half will be big too, because otherwise they would have spread out their releases more. Plus their forecast for total software shipped would have been more cautious. This is essentially the fiscal year where Nintendo's first party output will have to prove how much truth there was to Nintendo's repeated statements of giving Switch a longer lifecycle than their previous consoles, and based on the picture we have so far, it already looks to be much closer to be the truth than empty words.

So the two major points are that we are allegedly past the worst of the semiconductor shortages and Nintendo's first party release schedule being more robust than in the fiscal year before. That's how it's feasible to have only a 9% decline.

A third major point is, like in so many years before, that a price cut is doable. Lite dropping to $170, original to $250, OLED to $300. But like in so many years before, this might yet be another instance where sales remain too good to necessitate this step, so it's a lot less reliable to be counted on than the other two points. I do not count on a price cut to happen.

A decline of only 9% in Japan might seem to be least likely of all the regions, but Splatoon is disproportionally more popular in Japan, so its third installment driving OLED adoption to new heights isn't far-fetched. There's also the Monster Hunter Rise expansion launching soon, so it's not just Splatoon 3 this summer.

I know I'm no financial expert... But with inflation being so insane, I just don't see them cutting the price.... I actually wouldn't be surprised if there is a slight increase (for new games anyway).



1doesnotsimply

xMetroid said:

This forecast really points out that they will either get really aggressive on offers or they will launch a new revision in the FY. Cause the sales rn aren't trending towards only a 3 million decrease. So to raise their forecast from 20 to 21 for next FY is an incredible sign. Switch will be close to 130 millions a year from now. It will start slowing down more at that point, but still i feel like not reaching 150 millions is nearly impossible.

The decline this year was 5.76 million or 20% and this was mostly due to a disappointing Q2. The other quarters saw a slight decline but Q2 was a massive 3.03m or 44% down yoy (3.83m versus 6.86m). Nintendo really struggled to produce systems in Q2 but they seem to have rectified the supply problem. I think they will be close to flat in FY 22-23, I'm predicting 22 million.



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Q4 for each year by region.

Japan:
2017 - 600k
2018 - 660k
2019 - 490k
2020 - 1,02mil
2021 - 1,16mil
2022 - 870k

America
2017 - 1,20mil
2018 - 1,20mil
2019 - 1,08mil
2020 - 1,26mil
2021 - 2,10mil
2022 - 1,91mil

Europe:
2020 - 550k
2021 - 807k
2022 - 620k

Other:
2020 - 450k
2021 - 600k
2022 - 700k

Last edited by deerox - on 10 May 2022

S.Peelman said:
Apkopf said:

Nintendo Switch has now a slightly better software attach rate (7.638) than the Wii-u (7.631). Goin by Nintendos own sales data their internal ranking would put switch at 5th place. 

1 GC: 9.59
2 Wii: 9.07
3 NES: 8.08
4 SNES: 7.72
5 NSW: 7.64
6 Wii-U: 7.63
7 DS: 6.16
8 3DS: 5.12
9 GBA: 4.63
10 GB: 4.22

Not that surprising to see all the dedicated handhelds in the bottom but I wonder if having multiple systems at home with family members sharing games factors into switch attach ratio, given its hybrid nature.

Forgot N64.

Hardware 32.93, software 224.97 according to Nintendo, for a ratio of 6.83. Won't matter for Switch's rank though as it's long past that.

Ops right I completely missed that one will add it thank you



Damn, how many 10m sellers will the Switch have at the end of its lifetime? How many of those will be 1st party?



You know it deserves the GOTY.

Come join The 2018 Obscure Game Monthly Review Thread.

deerox said:

Q4 for each year by region.

Japan:
2017 - 600k
2018 - 660k
2019 - 490k
2020 - 1,02mil
2021 - 1,16mil
2022 - 870k

America
2017 - 1,20mil
2018 - 1,20mil
2019 - 1,08mil
2020 - 1,26mil
2021 - 2,10mil
2022 - 1,91mil

Europe:
2020 - 550k
2021 - 807k
2022 - 620k

Other:
2020 - 450k
2021 - 600k
2022 - 700k

There is Official data for Europe Q4 2019 and Other here. https://vgsales.fandom.com/wiki/Nintendo_Switch?so=search

Europe Q4 2019 was 590k and Other 320K. Also Q4 2017 Europe was 760K and Other 180K because that entire fiscal year was just Q4, the only regional number we don't have for Europe is 2018 because Nintendo combined it with Other. 

Last edited by ShadowLink93 - on 10 May 2022

PAOerfulone said:

Legends Arceus JUST missed out on the Top 10. It's at #13 behind NSMBU Deluxe and Splatoon 2.

I see Legends Arceus kicking Pokemon: Let's Go out of the top 10, with both it and RFA overtaking it.