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Forums - Nintendo Discussion - Nintendo Quarterly Sales Update: (To 31st March 2022) Switch at 107.65m shipped

Okay great, now I want to buy an OLED model



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21M prediction is better than I thought. They are confident that the decline will slow down.
Seems clear that sucessor will launch only 2024 or later. I leaning 2025.

Can someone recall the console that best sold in the year its sucessor launched? And the numbers?



RolStoppable said:
Farsala said:

Yeah I am surprised by Nintendo's high expectations for the NSW going into its 6th fiscal year. However we have to keep in mind Nintendo's 1st fiscal year was about 1 month long compared to most consoles having 5 months.

This next fiscal year will be quite interesting, because I am curious about which markets will do the heavy lifting.

javi is using the PS4's fifth full fiscal year against Switch's sixth full fiscal year, so there's no benefit given to Switch for its one-month fiscal year zero (let's call it that way for simplicity) vs. the PS4's five-month fiscal year zero. So in the comparison that is being used here, it's Switch which is the older console. For the DS he used the sixth full fiscal year, so in that comparison the DS is the older console.

So when it comes to full fiscal years, the DS is in first in year 6 with ~18m units shipped, followed by the PS2 with ~16m in production shipments (Sony's reporting method differed as most regulars in sales discussions are probably aware of). The PS4 accomplished ~13.5m, by the way.

As for Switch's regional distribution of units in the recently started fiscal year, it's unlikely that any region specificially will stick out as doing the heavy lifting. All four major categories (Japan, Americas, Europe, Other) will continue to see steady sales, because there's nothing indicating otherwise. Japan may be the closest to the saturation point, but we aren't quite there yet; Switch's sales aren't eroding like they did for the 3DS which was far off from its peak when it entered year 6.

He specifically said 6th fiscal year, so I assumed he knew what he was talking about.

Well the decline isn't so steady. The reason I find Nintendo's forecast to be so surprising is due to this type of decline for the whole FY.

Japan: -22%

Americas: -22%

Europe: -16%

Others: -22%

Nintendo expects overall -9% for the next FY.  Somehow Nintendo has to stabilize the decline. A -9% decline in all regions would look like this.

Japan: 4.7m

Americas: 8.0m

Europe: 5.5m

Others: 2.8m

Keep in mind Nintendo has not started Calendar year 2022 with only a -9% decline.

Japan: -25%

Americas: -9%

Europe: -29%

Others: +18%

Still, I have to assume Nintendo knows a lot more about it than me.



jonathanalis said:

21M prediction is better than I thought. They are confident that the decline will slow down.
Seems clear that sucessor will launch only 2024 or later. I leaning 2025.

Can someone recall the console that best sold in the year its sucessor launched? And the numbers?

It's probably the PlayStaiton 2. Shipped almost exactly 14 mil in 2006.

http://scei.co.jp/corporate/data/bizdataps2_e.html">https://web.archive.org/web/20120609161654/http://scei.co.jp/corporate/data/bizdataps2_e.html



Major Switch Titles Launch Aligned

2022 predictions:

  • Switch - 24m
  • PS5 - 15.5m
  • Xbox Series - 10m

Nintendo Switch has now a slightly better software attach rate (7.638) than the Wii-u (7.631). Goin by Nintendos own sales data their internal ranking would put switch at 5th place. 

1 GC: 9.59
2 Wii: 9.07
3 NES: 8.08
4 SNES: 7.72
5 NSW: 7.64
6 Wii-U: 7.63
7 N64: 6.83
8 DS: 6.16
9 3DS: 5.12
10 GBA: 4.63
11 GB: 4.22

Not that surprising to see all the dedicated handhelds in the bottom but I wonder if having multiple systems at home with family members sharing games factors into switch attach ratio, given its hybrid nature.

/edit added N64

Last edited by Apkopf - on 10 May 2022

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Software sales are once again the bigger part of the pie for them. This fiscal year represented a bit more than 25% of their total software sales since the Switch launched ! Kind of epic it could match and outclass the previous pandemic year.

Now counting on the fact that we're having a year with many more titles on a good pipeline schedule, I think the next fiscal year will be pretty similar to this one in terms of sales.

Hardware is self-explanatory.

Kirby already shipped through 2.6M in two weeks with 2.1M sell-through. Probably a rapidity record for the franchise. Legs for the current calendar year will be there since it is still a high top seller in most charts more than a month following it's release. Could more than well reach or surpass 4M by the end of Q3.

Also fun fact, digital sales ratio has decreased by 0.2%. If this continues for a while, I think it'll be clear to assert that we reached a plateau there.



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Apkopf said:

Nintendo Switch has now a slightly better software attach rate (7.638) than the Wii-u (7.631). Goin by Nintendos own sales data their internal ranking would put switch at 5th place. 

1 GC: 9.59
2 Wii: 9.07
3 NES: 8.08
4 SNES: 7.72
5 NSW: 7.64
6 Wii-U: 7.63
7 DS: 6.16
8 3DS: 5.12
9 GBA: 4.63
10 GB: 4.22

Not that surprising to see all the dedicated handhelds in the bottom but I wonder if having multiple systems at home with family members sharing games factors into switch attach ratio, given its hybrid nature.

Forgot N64.

Hardware 32.93, software 224.97 according to Nintendo, for a ratio of 6.83. Won't matter for Switch's rank though as it's long past that.



Fourteen 10 million sellers now, with 5 more likely being added to the list by end of the year (good chance of Mario Party Superstars, Mario 3D World for sure, Pokemon gen 9 for sure, and presumably Switch Sports and Splatoon 3). In FY results a year from now BotW2 will be the 20th 10 million seller on Switch!

Metroid Dread the top selling Metroid game ever!!!! Well deserved! Hopefully it can top 4 million liftetime. Bodes very well for whenever Prime 4 hits.

No surprise about Pokemon Legends being up at 12 million. Great but expected non-holiday launch for that game. Even with Pokemon gen 9 announced just after it launched.

Super Mario Party heading for 20 million eventually, while Smash heading for 30 million this year and BotW might even hit 30 this year too!

No surprise with the 21 million hardware estimate for the next year. Lots of great games coming out in the next year, with presumably BotW2 coming out just before the FY ends. As we all know, Switch has a few years of life left in it. 128 million hardware estimate a year from now, setting up a 140+ million figure by end of 2023. Switch 2 could launch early like Spring 2024, but if it doesn't launch until Holiday 2024 or Spring 2025 then Switch should pass DS and PS2 HW numbers.





Apkopf said:

Nintendo Switch has now a slightly better software attach rate (7.638) than the Wii-u (7.631). Goin by Nintendos own sales data their internal ranking would put switch at 5th place. 

1 GC: 9.59
2 Wii: 9.07
3 NES: 8.08
4 SNES: 7.72
5 NSW: 7.64
6 Wii-U: 7.63
7 DS: 6.16
8 3DS: 5.12
9 GBA: 4.63
10 GB: 4.22

Not that surprising to see all the dedicated handhelds in the bottom but I wonder if having multiple systems at home with family members sharing games factors into switch attach ratio, given its hybrid nature.

This fiscal year had a tie ratio of 10.19 so NSW jumped from 6.94 to 7.64 over this last FY, in one year time i think it will be around 8.2.