Updated my spreadsheet with the latest figures. Added a new line for figures published in the CESA White Paper.
Hardware is down by 5.76m compared to last year, but it's interesting how that decline is distributed in the hardware family. The original Switch is down by 6.75m, but it's self-evident that the OLED model has replaces a significant portion of its demand; the OLED model accounted for 5.80m, so the hybrid Switch is actually down by only 0.95m. It's Switch Lite which is responsible for most of the year over year decline with a drop of 4.81m.
Looking at the regional breakdown of shipments for the most recent quarter, it's noteworthy that Europe has been in last place, so even behind Other by 0.10m. However, this is not concerning because the sell-through numbers have been good for Europe; it's just the case that Europe had to work through a comparably too big holiday shipment which almost rivaled the Americas despite accounting for only about two thirds of the size before then.
A hardware forecast of 21m signals strong confidence in the longevity of the Switch platform and should put the final nail in the coffin for all expectations that assumed a Switch successor to launch during this fiscal year that ends March 2023.
Switch software hit a new peak despite significantly lower hardware shipments than the year before. Nintendo software on its own hit a new high too, although in both instances the growth is limited to only about 2%. Still, it constitutes as enough evidence that it's not time to move on from Switch for Nintendo yet, because there's no question about the health of this software ecosystem. Nintendo's forecast of 210m for the recently started fiscal year is also the highest initial forecast they've ever made, at least to my recollection. At 822.19m LTD, total Switch software is poised to reach the 1 billion milestone within the next ten months.