RolStoppable said:
javi is using the PS4's fifth full fiscal year against Switch's sixth full fiscal year, so there's no benefit given to Switch for its one-month fiscal year zero (let's call it that way for simplicity) vs. the PS4's five-month fiscal year zero. So in the comparison that is being used here, it's Switch which is the older console. For the DS he used the sixth full fiscal year, so in that comparison the DS is the older console. So when it comes to full fiscal years, the DS is in first in year 6 with ~18m units shipped, followed by the PS2 with ~16m in production shipments (Sony's reporting method differed as most regulars in sales discussions are probably aware of). The PS4 accomplished ~13.5m, by the way. As for Switch's regional distribution of units in the recently started fiscal year, it's unlikely that any region specificially will stick out as doing the heavy lifting. All four major categories (Japan, Americas, Europe, Other) will continue to see steady sales, because there's nothing indicating otherwise. Japan may be the closest to the saturation point, but we aren't quite there yet; Switch's sales aren't eroding like they did for the 3DS which was far off from its peak when it entered year 6. |
He specifically said 6th fiscal year, so I assumed he knew what he was talking about.
Well the decline isn't so steady. The reason I find Nintendo's forecast to be so surprising is due to this type of decline for the whole FY.
Japan: -22%
Americas: -22%
Europe: -16%
Others: -22%
Nintendo expects overall -9% for the next FY. Somehow Nintendo has to stabilize the decline. A -9% decline in all regions would look like this.
Japan: 4.7m
Americas: 8.0m
Europe: 5.5m
Others: 2.8m
Keep in mind Nintendo has not started Calendar year 2022 with only a -9% decline.
Japan: -25%
Americas: -9%
Europe: -29%
Others: +18%
Still, I have to assume Nintendo knows a lot more about it than me.
