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Forums - Sales Discussion - The Road to 160m+ for Nintendo Switch

killer7 said:

Until the Switch 3 comes? I don't know, it could be a possibility but 2 more years for sure. What seems to be clear now is the fact, they won't axe the Switch anytime soon. Please, my english is not too bad i suppose, but could you please explain, what is meant by "dimishing returns"?

Diminishing returns means returns on investment getting smaller and smaller. Remember mini means something small.

Edit: He means the increments in technology are smaller and smaller compare to what they were in the past. I think that was your actual question.

Last edited by Chicho - on 13 November 2024

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Fight-the-Streets said:

Somehow I believe a possible scenario from now on forward for Nintendo could be to always have two generations at the same time on the market: Originial Switch will be on the market until Switch 3 comes out, Switch 2 will be on the market until Switch 4 comes out... . The diminishing returns in tech will become smaller and smaller. It would absolutely make sense to have always two generations on the market to maximize market penetration and profit (especially with sales of software). The sales of the older generation will not hurt the newer generation as the lifecycle will have changed into overlapping generations.

Agreed.  For the last sentence: the idea of each console having a unique gimmick would support this.  I don't think it will be a big deal, perhaps Switch 2 has analog triggers or something, I think Nintendo is done with the selling point gimmick. 

Still, as you said, you'd want to avoid cutting into new sales with old and I think the Switch is completely gassed.  A big bump in GFX and horsepower would breathe new life into old Switch games.  



"You should be banned. Youre clearly flaming the president and even his brother who you know nothing about. Dont be such a partisan hack"

Chicho said:
killer7 said:

Until the Switch 3 comes? I don't know, it could be a possibility but 2 more years for sure. What seems to be clear now is the fact, they won't axe the Switch anytime soon. Please, my english is not too bad i suppose, but could you please explain, what is meant by "dimishing returns"?

Diminishing returns means returns on investment getting smaller and smaller. Remember mini means something small.

Edit: He means the increments in technology are smaller and smaller compare to what they were in the past. I think that was your actual question.

Thanx for the explanation. Of course power leaps get smaller every gen. PS3/ Xbox 360 where massive compared to the PS2/ Xbox. The WiiU was massive over the Wii. The PS4/ Xbox One where not such big steps in graphics as we saw. At least i did not see major jumps. But PS5/ SeX(/SSBox) was a bigger jump compared to PS4/ Xbox One. We will see how Switch Up will do next year.

@Fight-The-Streets

Again i do not see Switch holding into the Switch 3(?)'s life, 2 years more is a dead lock!! Of course its a possibility. IF Nintendo gets around 12- 13 million this FY and next year will be more than the (by myself) expected 4- 6 milion sales (7 million/ 3DS salescurve) Switch might even be there longer than march 2027 but who knows. It also depends what games they'll announce for the Switch, how many cross gen games launch beyond 2027... My guess for now is, they'll give it a straight 10 years lifecycle like their previous handhelds got and thats it. But things can change of course...

Last edited by killer7 - 14 hours ago

killer7 said:

@Fight-The-Streets

Again i do not see Switch holding into the Switch 3(?)'s life, 2 years more is a dead lock!! Of course its a possibility. IF Nintendo gets around 12- 13 million this FY and next year will be more than the (by myself) expected 4- 6 milion sales (7 million/ 3DS salescurve) Switch might even be there longer than march 2027 but who knows. It also depends what games they'll announce for the Switch, how many cross gen games launch beyond 2027... My guess for now is, they'll give it a straight 10 years lifecycle like their previous handhelds got and thats it. But things can change of course...

Consoles usually are stopped being manufactured when the culminate yearly shippings fall below ~1 mil. We see in what year we will get there with the Switch.