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Forums - Sales Discussion - The Road to 160m+ for Nintendo Switch

RolStoppable said:
Fight-the-Streets said:

Same at my place, in retail either OG and OLED Switch are not available at all or only 1 or 2 pieces each. I have the impression that Nintendo undershipped in Q1 25. Actually, it's the other way around: Retail expected the demand for Switch will cool off much more than it actually did and ordered too less. I expect shipping in Q2 will be significantly higher than in Q1.

Or it's a sign that one or both SKUs are on the verge of getting phased out. It's more likely that only the original model gets phased out and the resulting shortage of it has translated into more sales for the OLED model, causing the more expensive SKU to experience shortages as well. So it's not so much that retailers underestimated demand, but rather that there can't be placed any new orders.

Yes, I thought about that as well - I see a possibility that a new model will come out and therefore at least one of the current hybrid models will be phased out and can't be ordered anymore.



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The prospect of a new revision is an intriguing one; that would certainly be one way to boost sales without taking a price cut.

Problem is, they already have a premium model in the OLED and a cheap mode in the Lite, so what would a new model even look like? I'm of the opinion that a screen-less "Switch home" will never happen, as I feel like they would have done so long ago if they were going to. Maybe a Switch Lite with an OLED screen? 



curl-6 said:

The prospect of a new revision is an intriguing one; that would certainly be one way to boost sales without taking a price cut.

Problem is, they already have a premium model in the OLED and a cheap mode in the Lite, so what would a new model even look like? I'm of the opinion that a screen-less "Switch home" will never happen, as I feel like they would have done so long ago if they were going to. Maybe a Switch Lite with an OLED screen? 

You are probably right regarding a screen-less switch. I think the main console unit in a TV-only switch could be sold cheap but the packed in controller joy-cons or a pro controller would still increase the price to around lites cost. The target audience might not be so large either, people who mainly game on the TV probably already have a regular model and parents who want a cheep option will think the lite is a better deal - and probably already bought one.

Nintendo have released new revisions very late in a consoles life before. Personally the only revision I might be interested in a much smaller handheld unit since I think even the switch lite is to big for conveniently bringing it along. I do however not think this is likely.  



So they just release Switch Super Lite with 5 inch screen or something (LCD) at 149$, discontinue the Lite and the original model, and cut the OLED model to 249$. So that you have low end model and high end model.



My sales comparison threads:

Ultimate Showdowns: JP 2023 / JP 2024 / 2024 / 2023 / 20222021

Lifetime Showdown / Historical Showdown / YOY Charts / 140M+ Club Chart

Guys, remember, Nintendo wants to make money. They are not obsessed with selling more than the PS2. Although even I think its really crazy that they went the whole gen without a real pricecut. What I think is that we will finally get the price cut when the Switch replacement ships.



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Is this already at 150 million ?

Coming for 152 million by January



znake said:

Is this already at 150 million ?

Coming for 152 million by January

No way it’s at 150. It’s probably around 144. 



CosmicSex said:

Guys, remember, Nintendo wants to make money. They are not obsessed with selling more than the PS2. Although even I think its really crazy that they went the whole gen without a real pricecut. What I think is that we will finally get the price cut when the Switch replacement ships.

Making money and selling more than the PS2 are two things that are not at odds with each other.



Legend11 correctly predicted that GTA IV will outsell Super Smash Bros. Brawl. I was wrong.

CosmicSex said:

Guys, remember, Nintendo wants to make money. They are not obsessed with selling more than the PS2. Although even I think its really crazy that they went the whole gen without a real pricecut. What I think is that we will finally get the price cut when the Switch replacement ships.

I keep seeing people say stuff like this.  These statements are both true and completely irrelevant.  This is actually the perfect time for Switch to have a price cut. 

The main way price cuts lead to less money is when you cut the price of hardware too early.  If Switch were to sell another 100M systems even without a price cut, but 120M systems with a $50 price cut, then they would lose $5 Billion on systems that they were going to sell anyway.  The extra hardware and software profit from that extra 20M systems would probably not offset the money lost on 100 million systems with a price cut.

However we are at a point where they might sell about 20M more without a price cut and 40M more with a price cut.  If they are making at least $50 profit on each system, then they would already make their money back on hardware alone.  On top of that they are going to get software sales, subscription revenue and have an extra 20 million customers who will consider buying a Switch 2.

If, going forward, Nintendo doesn't offer either a price cut, a revision, or some attractive bundle then they are leaving money on the table.

.



It’s official: No Nintendo console has lasted as long as Switch without being replaced

Last edited by XtremeBG - on 12 July 2024

My sales comparison threads:

Ultimate Showdowns: JP 2023 / JP 2024 / 2024 / 2023 / 20222021

Lifetime Showdown / Historical Showdown / YOY Charts / 140M+ Club Chart