No, not even close. TSMC doesn't give a shit about anyone's sales potential.

TSMC has a certain production capacity for each node and foundry line. They collect advance orders from whoever wants chips. In the best of all worlds, the production capacity will match the orders. In a not-so-good world, they'll get less orders that production capacity would allow so they might jack up prices somewhat to not lose money (or offer incentives to get orders for more chips).

In a bad situation (for the ordering companies), much more is ordered than production capacity is available (what we are seeing now). So all bets are off what is going to happen. In theory, there is no "play it nice" rule in play. TSMC can jack up prices until ordering companies start to bail out or find another foundry (good luck with that). In practise, the company that orders chips that load lines 24/7/365 gets preferred treatment as a foundry is only well profitable if its lines run non-stop.

I'm pretty sure knives have been and are flying front, back, left and right currently between companies and foundries.

I dunno what to think to be honest. If Ampere's figures are correct, then the PS5 is selling x2 and is always out of stock while the Xbox Series S sitting on shelves and with the X and Game Pass, is selling barely above the Xbox One.

So probably the same as the Xbox One overall

VGC thinks it's correct that the switch matches the October NPD and PS5 matches the ampere, but XBS thinks it doesn't matter that it doesn't match both . It's really odd.

You're mistaking speed as area.

Consoles sold = area. A console could sell faster and yet still sell less overall by the end (like the XB1), which is why I said things like 1st year sales is not a valid projector for LTD (due to accounting for so little of the LTD and often being supply constrained).

I also just showed you how the PS:XB set has been 170-180M for 20 years or so. I don't see that set changing much. So yes, in my model, PS4/5 sales can be a good indicator of XB sales, especially when MS release no XB sales numbers.

I'm thinking 60-70 million for now though could see it potentially going somewhat higher.

You talk about two gens actually. And your argument works for PS5 as well: as you showed a console can start sell faster but overall sell less, so PS5 is bound to sell less than PS4, because it sells faster in the first year.

How far do you actually believe the xbs numbers of VGC? If you really believe in it, I'll ask the same thing next year because I'm mean.

We have official information that Xbox Series is the fastest selling Xbox as of July.

Xbox Series X|S Are the Fastest-Selling Consoles in Xbox History - IGN

 Haha I wasn't referring to mnenmeth's words, just an opinion about that graph.

How much do you think these numbers differ? Do you think there is a major difference to reality here and XboxSeries is behind One?