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src on 20 November 2021
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Mnementh said:
src said:

Because PS and XB are the with sets with the least overlap (largely due to their third party support).

PS2+XB = 175M

PS3+360 = 170-180M

PS4+XB1 = 170M

If Playstation makes gains, it usually means Xbox loses out.

Its far more likely that's the case than the overall set for both growing substantially.

What people do not understand about stock. The stock they get from TSMC is decided on their sales potential. There's a reason Sony was given 16M chips and XB 8M. That's the sales expectations. Furthemore, PS5 is stock constrained while selling 16M. XB is stock constrained while selling 8M. All while PS5's have higher resale value. This tells you about expected and received demand.

See, there you lose me. As Xbox Series is selling better than XBox One at the moment, based on your logic I should conclude that PS5 will do worse than PS4. That is not denying PS5 will do better overall, but you recognize PS5 performance compared to PS4, but completely ignore Xbox. I would just keep PS out of the Xbox thread though, because all indications point towards Xbox series selling better than One, despite what PS5 does.

You're mistaking speed as area.

Consoles sold = area. A console could sell faster and yet still sell less overall by the end (like the XB1), which is why I said things like 1st year sales is not a valid projector for LTD (due to accounting for so little of the LTD and often being supply constrained).

I also just showed you how the PS:XB set has been 170-180M for 20 years or so. I don't see that set changing much. So yes, in my model, PS4/5 sales can be a good indicator of XB sales, especially when MS release no XB sales numbers.