1st year sales are small for consoles compared to their LTD. XB1 outpaced 360 in its first year as well, but was unable to come close to the 360 in year 3-5. PS4 for instance had 4 years close to 20M. The bulk of console sales were in those years.

Right now, the PS: XB split is same as PS4:XB1 for everything I have seen.

The TSMC estimates for each chip had PS5 at 16 million and XB at 8 million (estimates from chip die sizes).

Out of the big 3, I still find XBox to be the hardest to predict.  I think Gamepass will become fairly successful, but I am not sure how much it will help them on the console side.  Most of their gains may be on the PC/mobile platforms, or they might actually do well on console sales.  There are still many years left in generation 9, and 2021 is going to be seen as misleading as far as the data goes.  For now, I am saying this:

40m-49m

If I recall correctly, your lifetime predictions for PS5 + Xbox Series was 130m, right? So 80-90m lifetime for PS5?

The PlayStation 5 shipped 13.4m units by September 30th. Lifetime sales expectations? (vgchartz.com)

He said 70-79.9m in the PS5 equivalent thread. It seems he expects higher switch sales than 95% of the site and lower PS+Xbox sales than 95% of the site, interesting stuff. (He predicted 170-180m in the Switch one, which excluding the troll votes on the highest option puts him in the top 2% for that lol.)

Wow Rol is quite cunning man. I think I'm in the honorable minority here. I am thinking 45 to 55million by 2028.

40 to 49 is not so unrealistic. And vgc also seems to have revised the Xbox numbers downward recently.

This takes the installed base of the 3 families of consoles at the end of September to the following:

Switch - 89.7m
PS5 - 12.8m
Xbox Series - 6.7m pic.twitter.com/2DbsIy1bjw

— Piers Harding-Rolls (@PiersHR) November 17, 2021

Xbox 360 had a soft launch and really started a year later. Launch aligned it looks therefore weak, but had a lot going for it later on. So yes, I think XSX will have a hard time reaching XBox 360. But Xbox One and Xbox Series both have not a soft launch. They are much more comparable. And XBox Series iss tracking ahead of Xbox One as well. So if you expect Xbox Series to sell about the same as One, you expect it to be even more frontloaded, for which is no indication at all. On the contrary, as the machine is still supply constrained it seems that the early sales curve is too flat with stock restrictions compared to demand, so everything pointing towards Xbox Series pulling ahead of Xbox One even in the long run. You claiming it will sell about the same with disregarding the early sales data based on a comparison of XOne with X360 seems too weak.

You seem to base your prediction of Xbox sales on PS5. I don't think that is really relevant. X360 and PS3 were called HD twins and the same could be applied to Xbox One and PS4 to a degree, meaning both competitors catered to more or less the same userbase and therefore the combined sales are similar in both gens. But this seems to change this gen (and even started late last gen). Microsoft and Sony start to target more and more different userbases and show different strategies. Which mean they probably have less market overlap than before. With Microsoft focusing on Gamepass, offering a united gaming platform and showing strong support to keeping your old games alive, they probably reach a different audience. This means Xbox could really grow, even if PS5 is selling more than PS4. And the early sales data - as I showed - is pointing exactly in that direction. If you don't expect both consoles to be much more frontloaded than last gen, it seems the sales roof of Xbox is far less dependent on Playstation performance this gen. Which also seems the consensus here in the VGC community, according to the poll in this thread most see Xbox Series outperfom the One.

I think that you constantly try to pull Playstation into a thread about Xbox muddles your view and negatively impacts your ability to analyse Xbox sales.

The Xbox brand and Xbox in general was a disaster in the early xbox one era and the console fell off quickly and never recovered. I see no reason that the Xbox Series consoles should fall off as terribly as the Xbox One did. Xbox is in a much stronger place now then it was in 2014.

Currently Xbox Series is outselling Xbox One launch aligned by 22% (8.65m for Xbox Series, 7.1m for Xbox One) and the Xbox Series X has been constantly out of stock since it released, there is no way to truly determine how high demand is and how much potential there is for even higher sales.

I don't think 50m is a horrific guess but the 40-50m range makes it seem that much worse of a prediction because 40m is laughable.

Xbox First party in Xbox One era was a joke, this won't be repeated for Xbox Series.

His Switch number doesn't seem to make alot of sense. Over 3mil on shelves and in transit? Where does this dude get this from?