src said:
1st year sales are small for consoles compared to their LTD. XB1 outpaced 360 in its first year as well, but was unable to come close to the 360 in year 3-5. PS4 for instance had 4 years close to 20M. The bulk of console sales were in those years. Right now, the PS: XB split is same as PS4:XB1 for everything I have seen. The TSMC estimates for each chip had PS5 at 16 million and XB at 8 million (estimates from chip die sizes). |
Xbox 360 had a soft launch and really started a year later. Launch aligned it looks therefore weak, but had a lot going for it later on. So yes, I think XSX will have a hard time reaching XBox 360. But Xbox One and Xbox Series both have not a soft launch. They are much more comparable. And XBox Series iss tracking ahead of Xbox One as well. So if you expect Xbox Series to sell about the same as One, you expect it to be even more frontloaded, for which is no indication at all. On the contrary, as the machine is still supply constrained it seems that the early sales curve is too flat with stock restrictions compared to demand, so everything pointing towards Xbox Series pulling ahead of Xbox One even in the long run. You claiming it will sell about the same with disregarding the early sales data based on a comparison of XOne with X360 seems too weak.
src said:PS5 outselling XS 2:1 already bodes for another repeat of outselling xbox 5:2. Whats curious is Sony expecting 23M next year, far higher than the PS4 and expecting to take a further 5% marketshare this gen (total console revenue). Either Xbox has to sell more than XB1 so the ratio does not skew further to PS5, or Sony is expecting to beat XSX even more than they did XB1. |
You seem to base your prediction of Xbox sales on PS5. I don't think that is really relevant. X360 and PS3 were called HD twins and the same could be applied to Xbox One and PS4 to a degree, meaning both competitors catered to more or less the same userbase and therefore the combined sales are similar in both gens. But this seems to change this gen (and even started late last gen). Microsoft and Sony start to target more and more different userbases and show different strategies. Which mean they probably have less market overlap than before. With Microsoft focusing on Gamepass, offering a united gaming platform and showing strong support to keeping your old games alive, they probably reach a different audience. This means Xbox could really grow, even if PS5 is selling more than PS4. And the early sales data - as I showed - is pointing exactly in that direction. If you don't expect both consoles to be much more frontloaded than last gen, it seems the sales roof of Xbox is far less dependent on Playstation performance this gen. Which also seems the consensus here in the VGC community, according to the poll in this thread most see Xbox Series outperfom the One.
I think that you constantly try to pull Playstation into a thread about Xbox muddles your view and negatively impacts your ability to analyse Xbox sales.
Last edited by Mnementh - on 17 November 2021
