40 to 49 is not so unrealistic. And vgc also seems to have revised the Xbox numbers downward recently.

The Xbox brand and Xbox in general was a disaster in the early xbox one era and the console fell off quickly and never recovered. I see no reason that the Xbox Series consoles should fall off as terribly as the Xbox One did. Xbox is in a much stronger place now then it was in 2014.

Currently Xbox Series is outselling Xbox One launch aligned by 22% (8.65m for Xbox Series, 7.1m for Xbox One) and the Xbox Series X has been constantly out of stock since it released, there is no way to truly determine how high demand is and how much potential there is for even higher sales.

I don't think 50m is a horrific guess but the 40-50m range makes it seem that much worse of a prediction because 40m is laughable.

Xbox First party in Xbox One era was a joke, this won't be repeated for Xbox Series.

Hmmm...what is that 8.65 million number? Is it from vgc ?

Out of the big 3, I still find XBox to be the hardest to predict.  I think Gamepass will become fairly successful, but I am not sure how much it will help them on the console side.  Most of their gains may be on the PC/mobile platforms, or they might actually do well on console sales.  There are still many years left in generation 9, and 2021 is going to be seen as misleading as far as the data goes.  For now, I am saying this:

40m-49m

If I recall correctly, your lifetime predictions for PS5 + Xbox Series was 130m, right? So 80-90m lifetime for PS5?

This takes the installed base of the 3 families of consoles at the end of September to the following:

Switch - 89.7m
PS5 - 12.8m
Xbox Series - 6.7m pic.twitter.com/2DbsIy1bjw

— Piers Harding-Rolls (@PiersHR) November 17, 2021

His Switch number doesn't seem to make alot of sense. Over 3mil on shelves and in transit? Where does this dude get this from?

This takes the installed base of the 3 families of consoles at the end of September to the following:

Switch - 89.7m
PS5 - 12.8m
Xbox Series - 6.7m pic.twitter.com/2DbsIy1bjw

— Piers Harding-Rolls (@PiersHR) November 17, 2021

You can click on the link on my sig to go back to our original discussion.  I said 130m was the max for PS5 + X|S, IIRC.

Right now, I am not totally confident in my X|S prediction or even my PS5 prediction if you break them down separately..  That is why I bet PS5 + X|S numbers.  If X|S is higher than PS5 will be lower and vice versa.  At this point I wouldn't be terribly shocked if X|S goes 30m or 70m.  I could see either possibility.  But PS5 numbers will adjust to compensate.