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Forums - Sales Discussion - VGC estimates that the Xbox Series X|S sold through 7.6m by the end of September. Lifetime sales expectations?

 

VGC estimates that the Xbox Series X|S sold through 7.6m by the end of September. Lifetime sales expectations?

Less than 30 million 47 5.84%
 
30.0 - 39.9 million 28 3.48%
 
40.0 - 49.9 million 34 4.22%
 
50.0 - 59.9 million 107 13.29%
 
60.0 - 69.9 million 188 23.35%
 
70.0 - 79.9 million 171 21.24%
 
80.0 - 89.9 million 153 19.01%
 
90.0 - 99.9 million 33 4.10%
 
100.0 - 110.0 million 22 2.73%
 
More than 110 million 22 2.73%
 
Total:805
src said:
Mnementh said:

Xbox Series tracks ahead of it's predecessors:

(Graph stolen from Zippy6)

1st year sales are small for consoles compared to their LTD. XB1 outpaced 360 in its first year as well, but was unable to come close to the 360 in year 3-5. PS4 for instance had 4 years close to 20M. The bulk of console sales were in those years.

Right now, the PS: XB split is same as PS4:XB1 for everything I have seen.

The TSMC estimates for each chip had PS5 at 16 million and XB at 8 million (estimates from chip die sizes).

Xbox 360 had a soft launch and really started a year later. Launch aligned it looks therefore weak, but had a lot going for it later on. So yes, I think XSX will have a hard time reaching XBox 360. But Xbox One and Xbox Series both have not a soft launch. They are much more comparable. And XBox Series iss tracking ahead of Xbox One as well. So if you expect Xbox Series to sell about the same as One, you expect it to be even more frontloaded, for which is no indication at all. On the contrary, as the machine is still supply constrained it seems that the early sales curve is too flat with stock restrictions compared to demand, so everything pointing towards Xbox Series pulling ahead of Xbox One even in the long run. You claiming it will sell about the same with disregarding the early sales data based on a comparison of XOne with X360 seems too weak.

src said:



PS5 outselling XS 2:1 already bodes for another repeat of outselling xbox 5:2. Whats curious is Sony expecting 23M next year, far higher than the PS4 and expecting to take a further 5% marketshare this gen (total console revenue). Either Xbox has to sell more than XB1 so the ratio does not skew further to PS5, or Sony is expecting to beat XSX even more than they did XB1.

You seem to base your prediction of Xbox sales on PS5. I don't think that is really relevant. X360 and PS3 were called HD twins and the same could be applied to Xbox One and PS4 to a degree, meaning both competitors catered to more or less the same userbase and therefore the combined sales are similar in both gens. But this seems to change this gen (and even started late last gen). Microsoft and Sony start to target more and more different userbases and show different strategies. Which mean they probably have less market overlap than before. With Microsoft focusing on Gamepass, offering a united gaming platform and showing strong support to keeping your old games alive, they probably reach a different audience. This means Xbox could really grow, even if PS5 is selling more than PS4. And the early sales data - as I showed - is pointing exactly in that direction. If you don't expect both consoles to be much more frontloaded than last gen, it seems the sales roof of Xbox is far less dependent on Playstation performance this gen. Which also seems the consensus here in the VGC community, according to the poll in this thread most see Xbox Series outperfom the One.

I think that you constantly try to pull Playstation into a thread about Xbox muddles your view and negatively impacts your ability to analyse Xbox sales.

Last edited by Mnementh - on 17 November 2021

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Oneeee-Chan!!! said:
curl-6 said:

If I recall correctly, your lifetime predictions for PS5 + Xbox Series was 130m, right? So 80-90m lifetime for PS5?

40 to 49 is not so unrealistic. And vgc also seems to have revised the Xbox numbers downward recently.

The Xbox brand and Xbox in general was a disaster in the early xbox one era and the console fell off quickly and never recovered. I see no reason that the Xbox Series consoles should fall off as terribly as the Xbox One did. Xbox is in a much stronger place now then it was in 2014.

Currently Xbox Series is outselling Xbox One launch aligned by 22% (8.65m for Xbox Series, 7.1m for Xbox One) and the Xbox Series X has been constantly out of stock since it released, there is no way to truly determine how high demand is and how much potential there is for even higher sales.

I don't think 50m is a horrific guess but the 40-50m range makes it seem that much worse of a prediction because 40m is laughable.

Xbox First party in Xbox One era was a joke, this won't be repeated for Xbox Series.



Gamerscore:20,000  -  Trophies:3,800 -  Nintendo Awards: -1

My Xbox Series S is my baby. It grew up into an X.

src said:



PS5 outselling XS 2:1 already bodes for another repeat of outselling xbox 5:2. Whats curious is Sony expecting 23M next year, far higher than the PS4 and expecting to take a further 5% marketshare this gen (total console revenue). Either Xbox has to sell more than XB1 so the ratio does not skew further to PS5, or Sony is expecting to beat XSX even more than they did XB1.

His Switch number doesn't seem to make alot of sense. Over 3mil on shelves and in transit? Where does this dude get this from?



Zippy6 said:
Oneeee-Chan!!! said:

40 to 49 is not so unrealistic. And vgc also seems to have revised the Xbox numbers downward recently.

The Xbox brand and Xbox in general was a disaster in the early xbox one era and the console fell off quickly and never recovered. I see no reason that the Xbox Series consoles should fall off as terribly as the Xbox One did. Xbox is in a much stronger place now then it was in 2014.

Currently Xbox Series is outselling Xbox One launch aligned by 22% (8.65m for Xbox Series, 7.1m for Xbox One) and the Xbox Series X has been constantly out of stock since it released, there is no way to truly determine how high demand is and how much potential there is for even higher sales.

I don't think 50m is a horrific guess but the 40-50m range makes it seem that much worse of a prediction because 40m is laughable.

Xbox First party in Xbox One era was a joke, this won't be repeated for Xbox Series.

Hmmm...what is that 8.65 million number? Is it from vgc ?



My prediction in 2021.

SW: 30m

PS5 16m

XBS: 7.5m

Oneeee-Chan!!! said:
Zippy6 said:

The Xbox brand and Xbox in general was a disaster in the early xbox one era and the console fell off quickly and never recovered. I see no reason that the Xbox Series consoles should fall off as terribly as the Xbox One did. Xbox is in a much stronger place now then it was in 2014.

Currently Xbox Series is outselling Xbox One launch aligned by 22% (8.65m for Xbox Series, 7.1m for Xbox One) and the Xbox Series X has been constantly out of stock since it released, there is no way to truly determine how high demand is and how much potential there is for even higher sales.

I don't think 50m is a horrific guess but the 40-50m range makes it seem that much worse of a prediction because 40m is laughable.

Xbox First party in Xbox One era was a joke, this won't be repeated for Xbox Series.

Hmmm...what is that 8.65 million number? Is it from vgc ?

Yes it's VGC's figure for Nov 6th.



Gamerscore:20,000  -  Trophies:3,800 -  Nintendo Awards: -1

My Xbox Series S is my baby. It grew up into an X.

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Zippy6 said:
Oneeee-Chan!!! said:

Hmmm...what is that 8.65 million number? Is it from vgc ?

Yes it's VGC's figure for Nov 6th.

LoL thank you.



My prediction in 2021.

SW: 30m

PS5 16m

XBS: 7.5m

curl-6 said:
The_Liquid_Laser said:

Out of the big 3, I still find XBox to be the hardest to predict.  I think Gamepass will become fairly successful, but I am not sure how much it will help them on the console side.  Most of their gains may be on the PC/mobile platforms, or they might actually do well on console sales.  There are still many years left in generation 9, and 2021 is going to be seen as misleading as far as the data goes.  For now, I am saying this:

40m-49m

If I recall correctly, your lifetime predictions for PS5 + Xbox Series was 130m, right? So 80-90m lifetime for PS5?

You can click on the link on my sig to go back to our original discussion.  I said 130m was the max for PS5 + X|S, IIRC.

Right now, I am not totally confident in my X|S prediction or even my PS5 prediction if you break them down separately..  That is why I bet PS5 + X|S numbers.  If X|S is higher than PS5 will be lower and vice versa.  At this point I wouldn't be terribly shocked if X|S goes 30m or 70m.  I could see either possibility.  But PS5 numbers will adjust to compensate.



Kakadu18 said:
src said:



PS5 outselling XS 2:1 already bodes for another repeat of outselling xbox 5:2. Whats curious is Sony expecting 23M next year, far higher than the PS4 and expecting to take a further 5% marketshare this gen (total console revenue). Either Xbox has to sell more than XB1 so the ratio does not skew further to PS5, or Sony is expecting to beat XSX even more than they did XB1.

His Switch number doesn't seem to make alot of sense. Over 3mil on shelves and in transit? Where does this dude get this from?

The shipment figures included the first wave of OLED models which were stockpiled for October. Nintendo confirmed passing 90 million sell through in (or by?) October. May not tell us exactly when it happened but Ampere Analysis probably used this figure:

https://mobile.twitter.com/ZhugeEX/status/1456537814330449928

Last edited by Kyuu - on 17 November 2021

Zippy6 said:
curl-6 said:

If I recall correctly, your lifetime predictions for PS5 + Xbox Series was 130m, right? So 80-90m lifetime for PS5?

The PlayStation 5 shipped 13.4m units by September 30th. Lifetime sales expectations? (vgchartz.com)

He said 70-79.9m in the PS5 equivalent thread. It seems he expects higher switch sales than 95% of the site and lower PS+Xbox sales than 95% of the site, interesting stuff. (He predicted 170-180m in the Switch one, which excluding the troll votes on the highest option puts him in the top 2% for that lol.)

I've been predicting high numbers for the Switch for almost 4 years now.  So far I've been seeing everyone else adjust their forecasts up on the Switch.  I haven't had to adjust down.  Perhaps your post was meant as a compliment?



Kakadu18 said:
src said:



PS5 outselling XS 2:1 already bodes for another repeat of outselling xbox 5:2. Whats curious is Sony expecting 23M next year, far higher than the PS4 and expecting to take a further 5% marketshare this gen (total console revenue). Either Xbox has to sell more than XB1 so the ratio does not skew further to PS5, or Sony is expecting to beat XSX even more than they did XB1.

His Switch number doesn't seem to make alot of sense. Over 3mil on shelves and in transit? Where does this dude get this from?

All the numbers are coming from this site: Ampere Analysis Home and none of them should be taken seriously. The Switch numbers alone show they have no idea what they're talking about.

92.87m (Nintendo Shipments Sept 30th)

91.56m (VGC Oct 2nd)

89.7m (Ampere Sept 30th)



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My Xbox Series S is my baby. It grew up into an X.