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Forums - Sales Discussion - VGC estimates that the Xbox Series X|S sold through 7.6m by the end of September. Lifetime sales expectations?

 

VGC estimates that the Xbox Series X|S sold through 7.6m by the end of September. Lifetime sales expectations?

Less than 30 million 47 5.84%
 
30.0 - 39.9 million 28 3.48%
 
40.0 - 49.9 million 34 4.22%
 
50.0 - 59.9 million 107 13.29%
 
60.0 - 69.9 million 188 23.35%
 
70.0 - 79.9 million 171 21.24%
 
80.0 - 89.9 million 153 19.01%
 
90.0 - 99.9 million 33 4.10%
 
100.0 - 110.0 million 22 2.73%
 
More than 110 million 22 2.73%
 
Total:805
Kakadu18 on 17 November 2021
The_Liquid_Laser said:
curl-6 said:

30m for XS would mean it's sold over a quarter of its lifetime sales in its first 11 months, all while being supply constrained, and before any of its big games arrive. That is highly unlikely.

Generation 9 is very different from Generation 8.  Generation 8 was extremely predictable.  Anyone could have predicted the outcome before PS4 and XB1 were ever released.  Sony basically won the generation the moment they made this video.

Generation 9 is not so easy to predict.  It is a generation where the gaming landscape will radically change.  It is more like Generation 5.  Both the CD-Rom and Sony's entrance changed the gaming landscape quite a bit, especially on the business side.  This would have been very hard to predict back in the day, because Sega CD and Phillips CDi were both big missteps.  Also, Nintendo was undefeated and was sticking with cartridges.  None of that changed the fact that disc based gaming was going to become the new norm.

We are now at the point where disc based gaming is on its way out.  When Generation 10 starts, a high powered disc based console is going to look like a dinosaur.  It's going extinct.  It's being replaced by hybrid consoles and subscription services.  Both of these formats are fighting hard to be the new norm.  At least one of them will be the new norm, with a good chance that both will become the new norm.

All of the console sales happening this year are misleading.  Generation 9 will not progress like Generation 8 did.  Things are being massively shook up.  Eventually, the data is going to show that gamers' tastes are changing.  These powerful disc based consoles are on the way out.

In what timeframe are expecting the XBS to sell 30mil?

I would be willing to bet that it'll reach that before the end of 2023.



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The_Liquid_Laser on 17 November 2021
Kakadu18 said:
The_Liquid_Laser said:

Generation 9 is very different from Generation 8.  Generation 8 was extremely predictable.  Anyone could have predicted the outcome before PS4 and XB1 were ever released.  Sony basically won the generation the moment they made this video.

Generation 9 is not so easy to predict.  It is a generation where the gaming landscape will radically change.  It is more like Generation 5.  Both the CD-Rom and Sony's entrance changed the gaming landscape quite a bit, especially on the business side.  This would have been very hard to predict back in the day, because Sega CD and Phillips CDi were both big missteps.  Also, Nintendo was undefeated and was sticking with cartridges.  None of that changed the fact that disc based gaming was going to become the new norm.

We are now at the point where disc based gaming is on its way out.  When Generation 10 starts, a high powered disc based console is going to look like a dinosaur.  It's going extinct.  It's being replaced by hybrid consoles and subscription services.  Both of these formats are fighting hard to be the new norm.  At least one of them will be the new norm, with a good chance that both will become the new norm.

All of the console sales happening this year are misleading.  Generation 9 will not progress like Generation 8 did.  Things are being massively shook up.  Eventually, the data is going to show that gamers' tastes are changing.  These powerful disc based consoles are on the way out.

In what timeframe are expecting the XBS to sell 30mil?

I would be willing to bet that it'll reach that before the end of 2023.

No one is predicting 30m.  I said that I wouldn't be surprised if X|S sold 30m or 70m.  People are jumping on the 30m number like it's a prediction.



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Oneeee-Chan!!! on 18 November 2021
src said:



PS5 outselling XS 2:1 already bodes for another repeat of outselling xbox 5:2. Whats curious is Sony expecting 23M next year, far higher than the PS4 and expecting to take a further 5% marketshare this gen (total console revenue). Either Xbox has to sell more than XB1 so the ratio does not skew further to PS5, or Sony is expecting to beat XSX even more than they did XB1.

Oh, wait. I did not know these were numbers from SONY. It had already been reported in the gaming media. So Sony themselves are convinced that they are selling twice as much as Xbox as of September.

This deserves a new thread lol.

THE PS5 FAMILY HAS SOLD ROUGHLY DOUBLE THAT OF THE XBOX SERIES CONSOLES.

https://www.videogameschronicle.com/news/xbox-series-s-is-estimated-to-have-outsold-series-x-in-several-key-markets/

Last edited by Oneeee-Chan!!! - on 18 November 2021

Oneeee-Chan!!! on 18 November 2021
trunkswd said:
Oneeee-Chan!!! said:

Oh, wait. I did not know these were numbers from SONY. It had already been reported in the gaming media. So Sony themselves are convinced that they are selling twice as much as Xbox as of September.

This deserves a new thread lol.

THE PS5 FAMILY HAS SOLD ROUGHLY DOUBLE THAT OF THE XBOX SERIES CONSOLES.

https://www.videogameschronicle.com/news/xbox-series-s-is-estimated-to-have-outsold-series-x-in-several-key-markets/

Those aren't numbers from Sony, just estimates from Ampere. 

Yes, that was my mistake. I saw the confusing title in other media and jumped to conclusions.

By the way, is Ampere an unreliable survey?

If you're interested. Please use it as a reference for your VGC data estimates.

Last edited by Oneeee-Chan!!! - on 18 November 2021

Oneeee-Chan!!! on 18 November 2021

Well, the results of this survey seem to be mostly in line with my expectations.



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Oneeee-Chan!!! on 18 November 2021
Evilms said:

Yeah, they seem pretty trustworthy.thank you.



Oneeee-Chan!!! on 18 November 2021
RolStoppable said:

VGC's estimate for Xbox Series X|S sell-through by the end of September is 7.6m. This cutoff date was used to be at least somewhat comparable to the most recent official Sony and Nintendo shipment data. Of course sell-through and shipments isn't the same, but you get the idea. What are your lifetime sales expectations?

A year ago the same question was asked, results below. Ignoring the lowest and highest poll options due to high likelihood of lacking sincerity of the voters, ~17% voted for lower lifetime sales than the Xbox One, ~18% for similar sales as the Xbox One and ~51% expected the new Xbox to sell more than its predecessor. So far the Xbox Series X|S is on pace to do better than the Xbox One (about 2m units ahead launch-aligned).

 

Your lifetime sales expectations for Xbox Series X|S?

Less than 30 million1018.40%
 
30.0 - 39.9 million857.07%
 
40.0 - 49.9 million12610.47%
 
50.0 - 59.9 million22418.62%
 
60.0 - 69.9 million25521.20%
 
70.0 - 79.9 million18615.46%
 
80.0 - 89.9 million13010.81%
 
90.0 - 99.9 million231.91%
 
100.0 - 110.0 million272.24%
 
More than 110 million463.82%
 
Total:1,203

Bonus question: What is your favorite Xbox Series X|S release up till now?

How come there are no bets in this year's thread? Is it not possible for op to set them?



src on 18 November 2021
Evilms said:

Well there you go.

derpysquirtle64 said:
src said:

1st year sales are small for consoles compared to their LTD. XB1 outpaced 360 in its first year as well, but was unable to come close to the 360 in year 3-5. PS4 for instance had 4 years close to 20M. The bulk of console sales were in those years.

Right now, the PS: XB split is same as PS4:XB1 for everything I have seen.

The TSMC estimates for each chip had PS5 at 16 million and XB at 8 million (estimates from chip die sizes).

Why do you use PS:XB split as a base to predict how Series X|S will perform? Especially considering that right now both Sony and Microsoft sell everything they produce and at least Series X and PS5 both go out of stock the minute they become available. Using this split will not say anything about the demand for both consoles. Why not compare Xbox One vs Xbox Series X|S launch aligned, especially considering that this forum has a dedicated thread that has this data updated weekly and it definitely says way more about real state of things than some vague PS:XB split.

Because PS and XB are the with sets with the least overlap (largely due to their third party support).

PS2+XB = 175M

PS3+360 = 170-180M

PS4+XB1 = 170M

If Playstation makes gains, it usually means Xbox loses out.

Its far more likely that's the case than the overall set for both growing substantially.

What people do not understand about stock. The stock they get from TSMC is decided on their sales potential. There's a reason Sony was given 16M chips and XB 8M. That's the sales expectations. Furthemore, PS5 is stock constrained while selling 16M. XB is stock constrained while selling 8M. All while PS5's have higher resale value. This tells you about expected and received demand.



Mnementh on 18 November 2021
src said:
derpysquirtle64 said:

Why do you use PS:XB split as a base to predict how Series X|S will perform? Especially considering that right now both Sony and Microsoft sell everything they produce and at least Series X and PS5 both go out of stock the minute they become available. Using this split will not say anything about the demand for both consoles. Why not compare Xbox One vs Xbox Series X|S launch aligned, especially considering that this forum has a dedicated thread that has this data updated weekly and it definitely says way more about real state of things than some vague PS:XB split.

Because PS and XB are the with sets with the least overlap (largely due to their third party support).

PS2+XB = 175M

PS3+360 = 170-180M

PS4+XB1 = 170M

If Playstation makes gains, it usually means Xbox loses out.

Its far more likely that's the case than the overall set for both growing substantially.

What people do not understand about stock. The stock they get from TSMC is decided on their sales potential. There's a reason Sony was given 16M chips and XB 8M. That's the sales expectations. Furthemore, PS5 is stock constrained while selling 16M. XB is stock constrained while selling 8M. All while PS5's have higher resale value. This tells you about expected and received demand.

See, there you lose me. As Xbox Series is selling better than XBox One at the moment, based on your logic I should conclude that PS5 will do worse than PS4. That is not denying PS5 will do better overall, but you recognize PS5 performance compared to PS4, but completely ignore Xbox. I would just keep PS out of the Xbox thread though, because all indications point towards Xbox series selling better than One, despite what PS5 does.



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derpysquirtle64 on 19 November 2021
src said:
Evilms said:

Well there you go.

Because PS and XB are the with sets with the least overlap (largely due to their third party support).

PS2+XB = 175M

PS3+360 = 170-180M

PS4+XB1 = 170M

If Playstation makes gains, it usually means Xbox loses out.

Its far more likely that's the case than the overall set for both growing substantially.

What people do not understand about stock. The stock they get from TSMC is decided on their sales potential. There's a reason Sony was given 16M chips and XB 8M. That's the sales expectations. Furthemore, PS5 is stock constrained while selling 16M. XB is stock constrained while selling 8M. All while PS5's have higher resale value. This tells you about expected and received demand.

As mnementh said, following your logic, PS5 should sell worse than PS4. Because even if these numbers provided by Ampere are correct (Xbox selling 6.7m), it still is ahead of what Xbox One did at the same point in time. According to VGC it was at 6m by the end of September 2014. And you seem to contradict yourself by the end of your post by mentioning stock, claiming that both consoles sell as much as the manufacturers can produce. What's the point to evaluate demand based on sales at this point, then?