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The_Liquid_Laser said:
curl-6 said:

30m for XS would mean it's sold over a quarter of its lifetime sales in its first 11 months, all while being supply constrained, and before any of its big games arrive. That is highly unlikely.

Generation 9 is very different from Generation 8.  Generation 8 was extremely predictable.  Anyone could have predicted the outcome before PS4 and XB1 were ever released.  Sony basically won the generation the moment they made this video.

Generation 9 is not so easy to predict.  It is a generation where the gaming landscape will radically change.  It is more like Generation 5.  Both the CD-Rom and Sony's entrance changed the gaming landscape quite a bit, especially on the business side.  This would have been very hard to predict back in the day, because Sega CD and Phillips CDi were both big missteps.  Also, Nintendo was undefeated and was sticking with cartridges.  None of that changed the fact that disc based gaming was going to become the new norm.

We are now at the point where disc based gaming is on its way out.  When Generation 10 starts, a high powered disc based console is going to look like a dinosaur.  It's going extinct.  It's being replaced by hybrid consoles and subscription services.  Both of these formats are fighting hard to be the new norm.  At least one of them will be the new norm, with a good chance that both will become the new norm.

All of the console sales happening this year are misleading.  Generation 9 will not progress like Generation 8 did.  Things are being massively shook up.  Eventually, the data is going to show that gamers' tastes are changing.  These powerful disc based consoles are on the way out.

In what timeframe are expecting the XBS to sell 30mil?

I would be willing to bet that it'll reach that before the end of 2023.