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Forums - Sales Discussion - Not even halfway through this generation, Japan's home console market clinches growth

 

Japan is...

Cool 2 4.26%
 
Fascinating 7 14.89%
 
Awesome 2 4.26%
 
Kawaii 13 27.66%
 
Games 23 48.94%
 
Total:47
B6a6es on 03 January 2021
RolStoppable said:
B6a6es said:

Pardon me but this is a Misleading thread

Switch is both a handheld & console, and its a true successor to the 3DS

So going by your metric, last gen should be 37.86 Million counting the 3DS &Wii U (not counting the Vita)

Also you didn’t differentiate between Switch and Switch lite despite the Lite being 100% Handheld

What's so hard to understand about home console market? The 3DS wasn't a home console, by the way.

Simple, the Switch is Unique gaming machine thats BOTH a handheld & a home console Hybrid, which helped its success in the Handheld/Mobile dominant Japanese market

Imo calling Switch a traditional home console in the same sense as PS/Xbox is no different than calling PCs with Steam Big Picture a Home console, or better yet hooking your iPad to a tv !!



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B6a6es on 03 January 2021
Mnementh said:
B6a6es said:

Also you didn’t differentiate between Switch and Switch lite despite the Lite being 100% Handheld

He did, read again.

My bad, should’ve mentioned it in the OP tho



Bofferbrauer2 on 03 January 2021
chakkra said:

Errr... Shouldn't 3DS numbers be up there as well? Or are you really just going to pretend that the Switch is replacing only the Wii U?

And the Vita while we're at it. After all, Switch is the only handheld option left now, even if using it as a handheld is optional outside if the lite version...



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Eagle367 on 03 January 2021
GoOnKid said:
Eagle367 said:

People here take everything too seriously. I made a blatantly sarcastic post and most people started giving me serious replies. Also the poll question is clearly missing the option of all of the above, japan is kawaii games and kakui games and is kawaii and kakui and awesome and is awesomely cute and cutely awesome.

That's clearly the motto of video gaming in the 21st century



Just a guy who doesn't want to be bored. Also

VideoGameAccountant on 03 January 2021
IcaroRibeiro said:
VideoGameAccountant said:

Generation will more consoles has more sales than generation with fewer consoles. More at 11.

Joking aside, the problem with this assessment is you're not comparing apples to apples. Sure, let's say total Gen 9 consoles sales are less than Gen 8. But Gen 8 has more systems. This means someone could own a Wii U, a 3DS and a Vita in Gen 8 but they would just own a Switch in Gen 9. So there really wasn't a decline since that customer is still in the market and still buys systems and games. The best comparison would be to remove the Vita and Wii U since you can assume those customers should be absorbed into another system (or try and come up with a factor to reduce them). Or, as you mentioned, look at software as this should remain consistent (someone may buy multiple systems but probably wouldn't have bought multiple of the same title). Otherwise, right now it's a flawed analysis because we should expect the sales of 5 systems is greater than the sales of 3 systems. 

However more consoles in the market means higher revenue from hardware units which means the market shrinking as far as hardware revenue is concerned 

I questioned whether having less systems in the market will lead to more software spending. If software revenue growth is big enough to cover the hardware loss, then the market is flat or growing. If it's not, then the market is declining

Ultimately, I don't think we can separate home and handled console markets anymore. Nintendo is the only company releasing dedicated handhelds, and their best selling model is a hybrid. What can be said however is home-exclusive consoles are failing to meet their past popularity, with Japanese customers choosing portable or hybrid models instead

That's a bit of a flawed thinking because if revenue was all that mattered, then these companies would have more consoles. The reason Sony's handhelds and Nintendo's console were phased out was because they weren't very profitable. The market didn't want 5 different systems. 

We're getting a little off the rails here. The main point of this thread was that Japan's game market wasn't as doomed as it appears. The success of the Switch shows Japan still cares about dedicated game systems. We can argue how to measure the growth, but I think to say it's not doom and gloom as some people predict. 



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IcaroRibeiro on 03 January 2021
VideoGameAccountant said:
IcaroRibeiro said:

However more consoles in the market means higher revenue from hardware units which means the market shrinking as far as hardware revenue is concerned 

I questioned whether having less systems in the market will lead to more software spending. If software revenue growth is big enough to cover the hardware loss, then the market is flat or growing. If it's not, then the market is declining

Ultimately, I don't think we can separate home and handled console markets anymore. Nintendo is the only company releasing dedicated handhelds, and their best selling model is a hybrid. What can be said however is home-exclusive consoles are failing to meet their past popularity, with Japanese customers choosing portable or hybrid models instead

That's a bit of a flawed thinking because if revenue was all that mattered, then these companies would have more consoles. The reason Sony's handhelds and Nintendo's console were phased out was because they weren't very profitable. The market didn't want 5 different systems. 

We're getting a little off the rails here. The main point of this thread was that Japan's game market wasn't as doomed as it appears. The success of the Switch shows Japan still cares about dedicated game systems. We can argue how to measure the growth, but I think to say it's not doom and gloom as some people predict. 

I said AS FAR AS HARDWARE REVENUE IS CONCERNED more hardware in the market will lead to more hardware revenue 

Sorry for the Caps

A big portion of console market revenue is from hardware (not really profit as hardware isn't that profitable). Profit comes mostly from software, that's why I pointed that when comparing gens we need to look if software sales has been steady, increasing or declining. I wasn't really making a point, rather opening a discussion and a reflection. Is Switch sucess enough to offset the fact Japan is buying less gaming systems than in the past generations? 

About the thread, it talks specifically about home console. As we don't have the limits of home console and handhelds console markets well outlined anymore this comparison with past gen is pointless. People treat Switch (standard version) as both home and handled, when in reality the answer is it's neither, Switch is on it's own category, is a new market sub-segment that so far only Nintendo explored 



chakkra on 03 January 2021
RolStoppable said:
chakkra said:

Errr... Shouldn't 3DS numbers be up there as well? Or are you really just going to pretend that the Switch is replacing only the Wii U?

In the home console market, Switch only replaced the Wii U.

Speaking more broadly, a big problem in the gaming community is that many have a hard time to accept that the following statements can all be true at the same time:

1. Switch replaced both the 3DS and Wii U.

2. Switch replaced the Wii U in the home console market. (The home console market is the topic of this thread.)

3. Switch replaced the 3DS in the handheld console market.

4. Switch is not a home console.

5. Switch is in the home console market.

6. Switch is not a handheld console. (Only Switch Lite is.)

7. Switch is in the handheld console market.

Despite this thread being about the home console market, there have already been gen over gen comparisons for all three options:

1. Home console market

2. Handheld console market

3. Console market as a whole

It's all done correctly, because Switch's 14m in the home console market and Switch's 17m in the handheld console market don't add up to 31m in the overall console market. It's somewhat comparable to a survey question where multiple answers are allowed, so the percentages of the given answers don't add up to 100% like in a poll where only a single answer can be given.

I actually agree with all your 7 points. The part where we disagree is that you think it is okay to use Switch numbers when talking about home console and handheld markets separately, but as many people have already pointed out, that will only give you a distorted perception of the market as a whole.

"How is the home-console market doing? Oh, it is doing great! We have sold 14m units so far."
"Cool! how is the handheld market doing? Oh, it is also doing great! We have sold 17m units so far."

Do you really not see what is wrong with that approach? Both statements make it sound like everything is going better than it really is.

Yes, Nintendo has nothing to worry about this generation but Sony and MS do, as it is quite evident that Japanese audiences are shifting away from traditional home consoles.



Ryng on 03 January 2021
Farsala said:

How's the handheld market doing?

Vita+3DS did around 30 million in Japan, Switch should end in this range so i would say pretty good considering Sony is out.



curl-6 on 03 January 2021
heavenmercenary01 said:
TheBraveGallade said:

nintendo basically checked sony by making the switch.

a dedicated handheld would either be too weak compared to the switch, or to expensive to justify being 'only' a handheld (last gen showed this, 250 is too expesive for a dedicated handheld to the point nintendo did an unprecidented year 1 MASSIVE price drop).

If they follow nintendo on the hybrid concept, thats leaving the power hungry western devs and users soly to microsoft.

So, the choice was to leave japan behind isn't it?

It was both. Nintendo trapped Sony between a rock and a hard place; the 8th gen showed no first party can maintain a strong supply of software to separate portable and home console lines any more, so Sony's options were:

(1) Continue to try to support two lines and have one, their handheld, be pretty much guaranteed to fail.

(2) Make just a hybrid like Nintendo but lose a huge chunk of the core Western home console audience in the process.

(3) Abandon the handheld sector.

They chose option 3, which while the least costly choice still put them at a significant disadvantage in Japan. They then compounded this disadvantage by shifting their first party software almost entirely towards Western tastes; not necessarily a bad decision considering the West is a bigger market than Japan, but it has worsened their decline in their home country.

Last edited by curl-6 - on 03 January 2021

Bet with Liquidlaser: I say PS5 and Xbox Series will sell more than 56 million combined by the end of 2023. (And over 130 million lifetime)

TheBraveGallade on 03 January 2021
curl-6 said:
heavenmercenary01 said:

So, the choice was to leave japan behind isn't it?

It was both. Nintendo trapped Sony between a rock and a hard place; the 8th gen showed no first party can maintain a strong supply of software to separate portable and home console lines any more, so Sony's options were:

(1) Continue to try to support two lines and have one, their handheld, be pretty much guaranteed to fail.

(2) Make just a hybrid like Nintendo but lose a huge chunk of the core Western home console audience in the process.

(3) Abandon the handheld sector.

They chose option 3, which while the least costly choice still put them at a significant disadvantage in Japan. They then compounded this disadvantage by shifting their first party software almost entirely towards Western tastes; not necessarily a bad decision considering the West is a bigger market than Japan, but it has worsened their decline in their home country.

pretty much.

the problem they now might face, going foward, is that by catering to western fans mostly, they'll lost a lot of the reason a pretty big chunk chose PS over xbox: japanese games.