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Forums - Sales Discussion - Famitsu Sales: Week 49, 2020 (Nov 30 - Dec 06)

Bofferbrauer2 said:
Eagle367 said:

Damn not even 1 PS5 title in the top 50. This holiday is pretty damn tragic for PS5 in Japan.

There are not yet enough PS5 in the open to even have enough install base to get on this list yet. There are 172k PS5 (I'm leaving out the discless version since those can't contribute to the software numbers) and you need ~65k sales for a game to appear on the top 50, which would ba an attach rate of over 30%. Even for Nintendo titles, 30% are a lot and very hard to reach, so it's even more difficult for any other brand of games.

I'd look again in 3 weeks, at the end of the year. By then, the install base should have increased to an amount where a PS5 title technically could show up - but it would still be very difficult considering how slow the PS5 software sales seem to be so far.

I cannot let this explanation stand as it is. Attach rate drops with higher install base. The reason for this is simply, that a higher install base comes from different people buying into the system. You only have platformer fans? You get a WiiU. But that also leads to pretty high attach rates, as most of the install base share the same preferences and if you get a good game for that, pretty much every one owning the system buys that.

Every system goes through a phase like that. And that is launch. At launch you don't have a broad diverse spectrum of games, you have only so much. That leads to Breath of the Wild having nearly a 100% attach rate at the beginning. That dropped as the Switch base diversified.

PS5 not having this (in Japan) probably means that no title is a system seller there. Which is in line with the bad sales.



3DS-FC: 4511-1768-7903 (Mii-Name: Mnementh), Nintendo-Network-ID: Mnementh, Switch: SW-7706-3819-9381 (Mnementh)

my greatest games: 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022 

10 years greatest game event!

bets: [peak year] [+], [1], [2], [3], [4]

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Mnementh said:
Bofferbrauer2 said:

There are not yet enough PS5 in the open to even have enough install base to get on this list yet. There are 172k PS5 (I'm leaving out the discless version since those can't contribute to the software numbers) and you need ~65k sales for a game to appear on the top 50, which would ba an attach rate of over 30%. Even for Nintendo titles, 30% are a lot and very hard to reach, so it's even more difficult for any other brand of games.

I'd look again in 3 weeks, at the end of the year. By then, the install base should have increased to an amount where a PS5 title technically could show up - but it would still be very difficult considering how slow the PS5 software sales seem to be so far.

I cannot let this explanation stand as it is. Attach rate drops with higher install base. The reason for this is simply, that a higher install base comes from different people buying into the system. You only have platformer fans? You get a WiiU. But that also leads to pretty high attach rates, as most of the install base share the same preferences and if you get a good game for that, pretty much every one owning the system buys that.

Every system goes through a phase like that. And that is launch. At launch you don't have a broad diverse spectrum of games, you have only so much. That leads to Breath of the Wild having nearly a 100% attach rate at the beginning. That dropped as the Switch base diversified.

PS5 not having this (in Japan) probably means that no title is a system seller there. Which is in line with the bad sales.

I thought I mentioned it, but after re-reading, that bit seemingly got lost during editing. So yeah at launch a system seller often has a huge attach rate (remember BotW reaching over 100% attach rate?), and there simply seemingly ain't anything big enough that launch.

That being said, even then reaching over 30% attach rate is very difficult even at launch. I did take the launch into account, but that part went poof. Both Sony and Microsoft tend to lack a true system seller at launch and rather launch with lots of fancy third party titles and smaller exclusives. As a result of this, unless one of the third party launch titles is a huge hit (think FF7R, a Dragon Quest or Monster Hunter title, for example), they simply can't reach high enough to chart.



Looks like Fitness Boxing 2 didn't even chart after releasing on Dec 3rd. The first game was a million seller and a big part of that was the Japanese sales



Do we see the first signs of market saturation of Switch in Japan? There's no growth YoY in weekly numbers the last 10 weeks.



Bofferbrauer2 said:
Mnementh said:

I cannot let this explanation stand as it is. Attach rate drops with higher install base. The reason for this is simply, that a higher install base comes from different people buying into the system. You only have platformer fans? You get a WiiU. But that also leads to pretty high attach rates, as most of the install base share the same preferences and if you get a good game for that, pretty much every one owning the system buys that.

Every system goes through a phase like that. And that is launch. At launch you don't have a broad diverse spectrum of games, you have only so much. That leads to Breath of the Wild having nearly a 100% attach rate at the beginning. That dropped as the Switch base diversified.

PS5 not having this (in Japan) probably means that no title is a system seller there. Which is in line with the bad sales.

I thought I mentioned it, but after re-reading, that bit seemingly got lost during editing. So yeah at launch a system seller often has a huge attach rate (remember BotW reaching over 100% attach rate?), and there simply seemingly ain't anything big enough that launch.

That being said, even then reaching over 30% attach rate is very difficult even at launch. I did take the launch into account, but that part went poof. Both Sony and Microsoft tend to lack a true system seller at launch and rather launch with lots of fancy third party titles and smaller exclusives. As a result of this, unless one of the third party launch titles is a huge hit (think FF7R, a Dragon Quest or Monster Hunter title, for example), they simply can't reach high enough to chart.

I have been tough on Sony but the fact that their system seller is a pack-in title also does them no favors in conversations like this one.



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GhaudePhaede010 said:
Bofferbrauer2 said:

I thought I mentioned it, but after re-reading, that bit seemingly got lost during editing. So yeah at launch a system seller often has a huge attach rate (remember BotW reaching over 100% attach rate?), and there simply seemingly ain't anything big enough that launch.

That being said, even then reaching over 30% attach rate is very difficult even at launch. I did take the launch into account, but that part went poof. Both Sony and Microsoft tend to lack a true system seller at launch and rather launch with lots of fancy third party titles and smaller exclusives. As a result of this, unless one of the third party launch titles is a huge hit (think FF7R, a Dragon Quest or Monster Hunter title, for example), they simply can't reach high enough to chart.

I have been tough on Sony but the fact that their system seller is a pack-in title also does them no favors in conversations like this one.

Yeah, I heard good things about Astros Playroom. Although I kinda doubt many people are buying a PS5 just for that. But apparently the people thta got one have good words for it.



3DS-FC: 4511-1768-7903 (Mii-Name: Mnementh), Nintendo-Network-ID: Mnementh, Switch: SW-7706-3819-9381 (Mnementh)

my greatest games: 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022 

10 years greatest game event!

bets: [peak year] [+], [1], [2], [3], [4]

Soren0079 said:

Looks like Fitness Boxing 2 didn't even chart after releasing on Dec 3rd. The first game was a million seller and a big part of that was the Japanese sales

It did chart with 15k. Didn't make the top 10 though.



Major Switch Titles Launch Aligned

Multiplat 2023 Opencritic Prediction League

2022 predictions:

  • Switch - 24m
  • PS5 - 15.5m
  • Xbox Series - 10m

https://blog.ja.playstation.com/2020/12/10/20201210-downloadranking/?emcid=so-st-269399&utm_medium=&utm_campaign=&utm_source=&utm_term=so-st-269399&utm_content=

These are actually just pictures as no one in Japan downloads games, especially for Playstation consoles. :-/



Hardware: 204.622

Top 5 Week 49, 2020: 

  1. Momotaro Dentetsu - 115.884 (-9%)
  2. Derby Stallion - 74.244 / NEW
  3. Animal Crossing: New Horizons - 57.104(+61%)
  4. Ring Fit Adventure - 40.176 (+12%)
  5. Atelier Ryza 2: Lost Legends & the Secret Fairy - 30.643 / NEW

TOTAL: 318.051

Previous Holiday Weeks:

  • Week 49: 188.501
  • Week 50: 236.625
  • Week 51: 291.485
  • Week 52: 234.268
  • Week 1: 284.827

Top 5 Week 49:

  1. Pokemon Sword / Shield - 201.838 (-27%)
  2. Luigi's Mansion 3 - 34.122 (+30%)
  3. Ring Fit Adventure - 16.128 (-28%)
  4. Minecraft - 15.335(+38%)
  5. Mario & Sonic at the Olympic Games: Tokyo 2020 - 15.159 (+45%)

TOTAL: 282.582

Top 5 Week 50:

  1. Pokemon Sword / Shield - 231.578 (+15%)
  2. Ring Fit Adventure - 57.746 (+258%)
  3. Luigi's Mansion 3 - 48.449 (+42%)
  4. Mario & Sonic at the Olympic Games: Tokyo 2020 - 26.677 (+76%)
  5. Minecraft - 25.036 (+63%)

TOTAL: 389.486

Top 5 Week 51:

  1. Pokemon Sword / Shield - 288.199 (+24%)
  2. Luigi's Mansion 3 - 78.903 (+63%)
  3. Ring Fit Adventure - 56.861 (-2%)
  4. Mario & Sonic at the Olympic Games: Tokyo 2020 - 50.405 (+89%)
  5. Minecraft - 41.907 (+67%)

TOTAL: 516.275

Top 5 Week 52:

  1. Pokemon Sword / Shield - 243.476 (-16%)
  2. Luigi's Mansion 3 - 59.349 (-25%)
  3. Ring Fit Adventure - 52.521 (-8%)
  4. Minecraft - 40.905 (-2%)
  5. Mario Kart 8 Deluxe - 40.883 (+8%)

TOTAL: 437.134

Top 5 Week 1:

  1. Pokemon Sword / Shield - 196.925 (-19%)
  2. Luigi's Mansion 3 - 52.434 (-12%)
  3. Mario Kart 8 Deluxe - 52.195 (+28%)
  4. Minecraft - 46.963 (+15%)
  5. Mario & Sonic at the Olympic Games: Tokyo 2020 - 44.605 (+9%)

TOTAL: 393.122

TOP 10 Holidays 2019:

  1. Pokemon Sword / Shield - 1.162.016
  2. Luigi's Mansion 3 - 273.257
  3. Ring Fit Adventure - 213.688
  4. Mario & Sonic at the Olympic Games (Sega)- 177.712
  5. Minecraft (Microsoft) - 170.146
  6. Mario Kart 8 Deluxe - 167.912
  7. Smash Ultimate - 147.838
  8. Super Mario Party - 137.835
  9. Fishing Spirits (Bandai Namco) - 135.308
  10. Super Mario Maker 2 - 119.838

TOTAL: 2.705.550

Top 5 Holidays 2020:

  1. Momotaro Dentetsu (Konami) - 115.884 (-9%)
  2. Derby Stallion (Game Addict) - 74.244 / NEW
  3. Animal Crossing: New Horizon - 57.104 (+61%)
  4. Ring Fit Adventure - 40.176 (+12%)
  5. Atelier Ryza 2: Lost Legends & the Secret Fairy (Koei Tecmo) - 30.643 / NEW
  6. Pokemon Sword / Shield - 15.543 (+26%) +  8.827 (+35%)
  7. Hyrule Warriors: Age of Calamity (Koei Tecmo) - 23.276 (-43%)
  8. Mario Kart 8 Deluxe  - 23.180 (+58%)
  9. Pikmin 3 Deluxe - 21.280 (+0%)
  10. Shiren the Wanderer (Spike Chunsoft) - 19.594 / NEW

TOTAL: 429.751

Switch will be YOY in the next few weeks in both Software and Hardware, it's already started the trend this week. Ring Fit, Momotaro and New Horizon and a bunch of other evergreens and new games will actually end up driving higher sales than Pokemon Sword / Shield did last year. Minecraft for example sold the same amount it did last year, Mario Kart 8 Deluxe is already way ahead of what the game was doing last year. The next few weeks hardware can definitely be higher than 2019.

I mean just think about all the sales outside of the covered 30 list, this holiday will be much larger than 2019 for Nintendo and 3rd Parties. And in terms of hardware it might be only slightly up 25-50%, But I expect far more growth in terms of software sales in the next 4 weeks. Last year was weak for software outside of Pokemon Sword / Shield

Last edited by noshten - on 11 December 2020

theDX said:

PlayStation 5 Top 5 Software

1. Marvel's Spider-Man: Miles Morales (SIE) - 24,805
2. Demon's Souls (SIE) - 21,489
3. Call of Duty: Black Ops - Cold War (SIE) - 6,045
4. Godfall (Playism) - 5,342
5. Assassin's Creed: Valhalla (Ubisoft) - 4,227

PlayStation 5 Top 3 Publishers

1. Sony Interactive Entertainment - 52,339 (85%)
2. Playism - 5,342 (9%)
3. Ubisoft - 4,227 (7%)
.. All - 61,908 (100%)

Only Sony can sell Software on PS5?



3DS-FC: 4511-1768-7903 (Mii-Name: Mnementh), Nintendo-Network-ID: Mnementh, Switch: SW-7706-3819-9381 (Mnementh)

my greatest games: 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022 

10 years greatest game event!

bets: [peak year] [+], [1], [2], [3], [4]