Forums - Sales Discussion - PS5 Revises down production - *Update* Debunked

We went from 6-10-15-11. That’s weird that they can’t decide on a hard number. The news also gives me the impression the hardware team just isn’t on the ball.

PS4 did 7.4 million by Mar 2014 and that was them being cheaper and compared to a PR nightmare Xbox One launch. This is not 2013 and its weird they have a high bar when they don’t have the price nor power advantage.



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DonFerrari said:
This rumour doesn`t even know math for what it seems.
Sony original production plan was 5M, then they doubled it to 10M. So when they revise it down by 4M it ends up at 11M? That is pretty funny.

The way I understood it was that in July they were expecting to have 10M manufactured by end of 2020, the 15M was supposed to be the amount shipped by end of fiscal year (March 2021).  



sales2099 said:

We went from 6-10-15-11. That’s weird that they can’t decide on a hard number. The news also gives me the impression the hardware team just isn’t on the ball.

PS4 did 7.4 million by Mar 2014 and that was them being cheaper and compared to a PR nightmare Xbox One launch. This is not 2013 and its weird they have a high bar when they don’t have the price nor power advantage.

They may yet have price on the higher sku. 



thismeintiel said:
PAOerfulone said:

For comparison, the PS4 shipped 7.5 million units by March 2014.
So Sony was previously expecting to ship double that amount for PS5 units through March 2021, before lowering it to the point where they now expect to ship just an additional 3.5 million PS5 units for March 2021.

...I really think Sony is overestimating demand here.

Whatever Sony puts out there, it's going to sell out. Especially if it really is $399 for DE and $449 for the disk. When it comes to hype and mindshare, the PS5 has the vast majority of it compared to the XSS and XSX. MS has fumbled their launch again with the lack of compelling exclusive SW in the launch window. Their focus on cross-gen gaming. Two game reveal events that were mocked. And I still don't think we have seen anything but B/C games running on the actual HW. 

You may not think it's as bad as the XBO launch, which in a vacuum it's not. However, this isn't a vacuum. Xbox has never fully recovered from the XBO launch. MS didn't help when they slowed exclusive output to a crawl. Much that did come out was mediocre and didn't perform well. There's a reason the PS4 can still sell ~200K in NPD, which covers Xbox's strongest region, after being out almost 7 years, while XBO has been below 50K.

Yep it is pretty odd that Sony is having all these rumors of bad yield, consoles burning in manufacturing and last minute redesign when they already put up devkits for more than 1 year, have games running on PS5 every since the formal review... but MS is just "target HW".

Mandalore76 said:
DonFerrari said:
This rumour doesn`t even know math for what it seems.
Sony original production plan was 5M, then they doubled it to 10M. So when they revise it down by 4M it ends up at 11M? That is pretty funny.

The way I understood it was that in July they were expecting to have 10M manufactured by end of 2020, the 15M was supposed to be the amount shipped by end of fiscal year (March 2021).  

The one in July wasn`t really clear if it was year end or fiscal year end... but anyway the 15M is showing first time in this new rumor. The rumor mill for PS5 price, quantity, yield, redesign, etc have been running crazy because Sony is giving information in very specific shows and not really talking to reporters every day like MS been having news in VGC daily.

sales2099 said:

We went from 6-10-15-11. That’s weird that they can’t decide on a hard number. The news also gives me the impression the hardware team just isn’t on the ball.

PS4 did 7.4 million by Mar 2014 and that was them being cheaper and compared to a PR nightmare Xbox One launch. This is not 2013 and its weird they have a high bar when they don’t have the price nor power advantage.

Of course you would give credence on bad rumor for Sony. But what do you think of the fact that couple months away from launch we haven`t seem a single game really running on Xbox Series X (just "target hw"), while Sony have plenty, and only 20 titles "confirmed" to be optimized for Series X? This is official info from their events and the video that was going to be Series S announcement.



duduspace11 "Well, since we are estimating costs, Pokemon Red/Blue did cost Nintendo about $50m to make back in 1996"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=8808363

Mr Puggsly: "Hehe, I said good profit. You said big profit. Frankly, not losing money is what I meant by good. Don't get hung up on semantics"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=9008994

Otter said:

Production =/= shipped to retail, so it looks like theyre now aiming for numbers slightly above PS4

A 50% yield sounds expensive, I wonder why its so low. Is the chip more exotic than they've let on?

Exactly, production is not the same as shipments. Since PS4 shipped 7.5 million between Nov 2013 and March 2014, actual production was probably closer to 10 million as Daniel Ahmad stated.

Another factor that I don't think anyone here has mentioned yet is regions. PS4 launched on Nov 15 in North America; Nov 29 in Europe; and Feb 22, 2014 in Japan. I'm thinking we will get the PS5 details tomorrow, but Sony last said that they were aiming for an actual worldwide launch. That wouldn't mean the same day of course, but to me that at least implies all major territories (NA, Europe, Japan) launching in 2020 within a month or so of each other.



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RolStoppable said:
The biggest problem I have with this kind of news reporting is that it's too common for people to run with it and regard it as official numbers for Sony or Nintendo. You have anonymous sources of whom you don't know if they really have the whole picture in front of them or if they are filling out blanks themselves.

What's official is that Sony didn't provide a forecast for PS5 shipments which is an odd thing when they've been allegedly planning with higher than PS4 shipments in any case. If they had made a forecast of 8m by March 2021, nobody would seriously consider that weak because it would be a new record for the given time period from launch; and at the same time it wouldn't have been too hard to meet that number production-wise. But perhaps the actual catch is that Sony has been uncertain about actual demand for the PS5, hence no forecast. I am sure we'll get a forecast with Sony's next financial report because by then almost all factors that were cause for uncertainty won't be relevant anymore. In particular, Sony now knows Microsoft's SKUs and their pricing.

Well said. And that echos my thoughts exactly.

sales2099 said:

We went from 6-10-15-11. That’s weird that they can’t decide on a hard number. The news also gives me the impression the hardware team just isn’t on the ball.

PS4 did 7.4 million by Mar 2014 and that was them being cheaper and compared to a PR nightmare Xbox One launch. This is not 2013 and its weird they have a high bar when they don’t have the price nor power advantage.

You seem to think that power determines how well something sells. You should look at the switch. You also seem to think that sony and MS are on level footing. They simply are not. 

Besides, what this report confirms is just that it shouldn't be taken seriously. As Rol said above, Sony has not announced any official guidance with regards to their shipment totals for the year for the PS5. Mind you, they have done so for the PS4. This is like saying something is delayed when a date was never announced to begin with.

Also, potential shipments is a moving target. And has absolutely nothing to do with any hardware team. It's derivative of a number of factors, component availability, competition, price...etc. Sony could have started off with a conservative 6M knowing that would be an easy target to hit, readjusted it to 15M when they were informed that yields are better and that prices of DRAM and NAND flash have fallen, then readjusted it again when told that yields aren't as good as promised. Nothing they could do about that. They aren't the ones making the APU at all. They have lofty goals and expectations, that's the only reason stuff like this is even making the rounds. 

If sony manages to ship 11Munits by March 2021 and sells through that lot around the same time or in April and MS only manages to ship and sell 5M, would you still see this as sony not being on the ball?

DonFerrari said:
The speculation that Sony may have gone for 38 CUs instead of 36 thus making yield go lower would mean 5.5% increase in power or going 10.28 to 10.85 Tflop. Not sure the gain is really that good to justify lower yields.

That 38CUs thing is bullshit on borderline impossible lol. GPUs (especially AMD stuff doesn't work that way. You can't have 10 WGPs active workgroups in one shader engine then have 9 active in the other.

You hear anyone peddling rumors like that and you know its just nonsense. 

Last edited by Intrinsic - 5 days ago

Intrinsic said:
RolStoppable said:
The biggest problem I have with this kind of news reporting is that it's too common for people to run with it and regard it as official numbers for Sony or Nintendo. You have anonymous sources of whom you don't know if they really have the whole picture in front of them or if they are filling out blanks themselves.

What's official is that Sony didn't provide a forecast for PS5 shipments which is an odd thing when they've been allegedly planning with higher than PS4 shipments in any case. If they had made a forecast of 8m by March 2021, nobody would seriously consider that weak because it would be a new record for the given time period from launch; and at the same time it wouldn't have been too hard to meet that number production-wise. But perhaps the actual catch is that Sony has been uncertain about actual demand for the PS5, hence no forecast. I am sure we'll get a forecast with Sony's next financial report because by then almost all factors that were cause for uncertainty won't be relevant anymore. In particular, Sony now knows Microsoft's SKUs and their pricing.

Well said. And that echos my thoughts exactly.

sales2099 said:

We went from 6-10-15-11. That’s weird that they can’t decide on a hard number. The news also gives me the impression the hardware team just isn’t on the ball.

PS4 did 7.4 million by Mar 2014 and that was them being cheaper and compared to a PR nightmare Xbox One launch. This is not 2013 and its weird they have a high bar when they don’t have the price nor power advantage.

You seem to think that power determines how well something sells. You should look at the switch. You also sem t think that sony and MSareon level footing. They simply are not. 

Besides, what this report confirms is just that it shouldn't be taken seriously. As Rol said above, Sony has not announced any official guidance with regards to their shipment totals for the year for the PS5. Mind you, they have done so for the PS4. This is like saying something is delayed when a date was never announced to begin with.

Also, potential shipments is a moving target. And has absolutely nothing to do with any hardware team. It's derivative of a number of factors, component availability, competition, price...etc. Sony could have started ff with a conservative 6M knowing that would b an easy target to hit, readjusted it to 15M when they were informed that yields ar better and that pricesofRAMand NAND flash has fallen, then readjusted it again when told that yields aren't as good as promised. Nothing they could do about that. They aren't the ones making the APU at all. They have loft goals and expectations, that's the only reason stuff like this is even making he rounds. 

DonFerrari said:
The speculation that Sony may have gone for 38 CUs instead of 36 thus making yield go lower would mean 5.5% increase in power or going 10.28 to 10.85 Tflop. Not sure the gain is really that good to justify lower yields.

That 38CUs thing is bullshit on borderline impossible lol. GPUs (especially AMD stuff doesn't work that way. You can't have 10 WGPs active workgroups in one shader engine then have 9 active in the other.

You hear anyone peddling rumors like that and you know its just nonsense. 

That is the great pleasure of rumor mill, they enjoy the fact that there is no official information and may cook whatever they want. And if Sony for any reason give a forecast of units on the 16th the rumor mill will say that was adjusted because of X or Z. Same with price or anything else. And the rumor guys seem to have taken a special pleasure of making all rumor negative.



duduspace11 "Well, since we are estimating costs, Pokemon Red/Blue did cost Nintendo about $50m to make back in 1996"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=8808363

Mr Puggsly: "Hehe, I said good profit. You said big profit. Frankly, not losing money is what I meant by good. Don't get hung up on semantics"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=9008994

DonFerrari said:

That is the great pleasure of rumor mill, they enjoy the fact that there is no official information and may cook whatever they want. And if Sony for any reason give a forecast of units on the 16th the rumor mill will say that was adjusted because of X or Z. Same with price or anything else. And the rumor guys seem to have taken a special pleasure of making all rumor negative.

Give this is a shot...hell,do it on this forum :). Create two threads.

  1. PS5 APU and SSD expected to perform above expectations.
  2. PS5 APU and SSD rumored to be causing problems.

See which of those two threads generates more traffic. :)



Intrinsic said:
DonFerrari said:

That is the great pleasure of rumor mill, they enjoy the fact that there is no official information and may cook whatever they want. And if Sony for any reason give a forecast of units on the 16th the rumor mill will say that was adjusted because of X or Z. Same with price or anything else. And the rumor guys seem to have taken a special pleasure of making all rumor negative.

Give this is a shot...hell,do it on this forum :). Create two threads.

  1. PS5 APU and SSD expected to perform above expectations.
  2. PS5 APU and SSD rumored to be causing problems.

See which of those two threads generates more traffic. :)

I do remember creating some rumor threads like that to verify it. Most certainly we would see some very know users jumping around on the 2.

We do know that every positive SSD news had people complaining that only Sony was being praised by it and that it would only mean 2s faster loading compared to MS.



duduspace11 "Well, since we are estimating costs, Pokemon Red/Blue did cost Nintendo about $50m to make back in 1996"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=8808363

Mr Puggsly: "Hehe, I said good profit. You said big profit. Frankly, not losing money is what I meant by good. Don't get hung up on semantics"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=9008994

DonFerrari said:

I do remember creating some rumor threads like that to verify it. Most certainly we would see some very know users jumping around on the 2.

We do know that every positive SSD news had people complaining that only Sony was being praised by it and that it would only mean 2s faster loading compared to MS.

Oh that SSDthing lol... another way o pick ut who knows what they are talking about and who is just being an echo chamber.

Anyone that says PS5 SSD would just bring 2x faster load times has no idea what they are saying. Its just like with MSDX12 sampler feedback that's a component of the XSX/S velocity architecture. Its how MS can make their claim that having an SSD dislike having more RAM. What it does basically reduces how many textures need to be flushed or pulled into RAM, basically allowing for more efficient use of RAM and a reduced need for storage bandwidth. This is something that the PS5 also does with its GPU scrubbers.

Truth is, the PS5 SSD actually has other specialized hardware that makes it act more like RAM than an SSD. And if anyone knows what that means they would know that it means a lot more than just faster loading times. Its kinda like the extra GPU grunt on the XSX, its not something that you can't use. They don't get that's the same with the PS5 and IO tech, its not something you can't use. It would literally make developing your game easier on the PS5.