Japan is going to Sony no matter what. US, EU, and the rest of the world are less certain currently.
Stock could determine who will win the launch season in the US especially. Both Series S | X and PS5 will sell through about as much stock as MS and Sony make I'd say, unless they make an absolute crap ton of them. Not sure who will actually manufacture more. MS supposedly began manufacturing sooner, in mid May, compared to early July for PS5 as I recall, and they have almost totally cancelled all XB1 production now, which may indicate heavy Xbox Series production instead. Not sure how much Sony intends to have ready this Holiday, I recall something about them aiming to manufacture 10m by the end of March though.
Europe could depend on rather or not PS5 will have a staggered release. MS supposedly intends to launch in all markets on November 10th, while there have been some rumors that PS5 will be staggered, with Japan in early November, US in late November, and EU in December. That late EU launch could allow MS to finish the Holiday season ahead of PS5 in Europe possibly.Last edited by shikamaru317 - on 09 September 2020