Forums - Sales Discussion - Nintendo Switch shipped 55.77m by March 31st. Lifetime sales expectations?

Nintendo Switch shipped 55.77m by March 31st. Lifetime sales expectations?

Less than 80 million 71 5.77%
80.0 - 89.9 million 87 7.07%
90.0 - 99.9 million 148 12.02%
100.0 - 109.9 million 322 26.16%
110.0 - 119.9 million 228 18.52%
120.0 - 129.9 million 191 15.52%
130.0 - 139.9 million 60 4.87%
140.0 - 149.9 million 28 2.27%
150.0 - 160.0 million 21 1.71%
More than 160 million 75 6.09%

More than the PS4, so 130M-150M.

I don't understand all those who say 110M or less. There's simply no reason for the Switch to crash like the Wii did, sales are way up and don't look like they will come down anytime soon, so most probably this year's sales will be up from last year. This would put the console already at over 75M, and over 10M more than the Wii had at the end of 2009. The Switch would need to crash even harder than the Wii did just to be able to stay below 110M at that point, and that simply won't happen. The reasons for why the Wii crashed so hard are simply not given for the Switch.

Bonus Question: Just one, though I possibly buy a new one when a more powerful model comes out, giving mine either to my cousin or my wife.

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Around 85 million

100-120 miilion.

Bonus question: I have one Switch.
Bonus info: I am one of the few persons that only plays in docked mode.

I said 81-95 back in Machina's poll (thank you for the reminder), and went for the 110-120 spot in this poll. I'm not sure how many system sellers Nintendo still has planned for the Switch, and I tend to predict conservatively anyway. As for the second question, just one and I don't plan on getting another unless Nintendo announces a 'Switch Pro'.

118 exactly. I can’t see the system having the super soft fall that many people think. I own two systems so far

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2017 - 14.86m / 14.86m
2018 - 17.42m / 32.28m
2019 - 20.20m / 52.48m
2020 - 21.50m / 73.98m
2021 - 19.00m / 92.98m
2022 - 16.00m / 108.98m
2023 - 9.50m / 118.48m <---- Switch 2 November 2023
2024 - 5.50m / 123.98m
2025 - 2.50m / 126.48m
Lifetime - a bit under 130 million

Going by 120-130 million then. If Switch 2 is 2024 then 130-140 million.

Bonus; Only one, i see no reason to buy another one.

2020 predictions: NSW 25m, PS5 6m, XSX 4.5m, PS4 9m, XB1 3m

In December 2019 i predicted 21m Switch, but that was before COVID, obvius increased my predictions.

110 million. I'd love for it to do way more though.

There are 2 units in my home. One for me and one for the wife! My kids are too young for their own this time around, but I can see us getting more of its successor, but thats way down the road. 


Machina said:

Good time to ask this again. It's almost 2 years since I did the first Switch sales total poll of the week -

That time around the 66-80 million mark was the most popular option, with 81-95 a very close second. Both now seem very under-optimistic, but that's with the benefit of hindsight.

I went with 96-110 at the time and I think that's still looking pretty reasonable tbh. 

Since we're at the console's peak right now I'm expecting this poll's results to end up being over-optimistic, in contrast to last time, as people get carried away with the figures it's currently posting and feel like the days of summer will never end (or be a longer way off than they in fact are).

Holy fuck. So much people said below 96million. 

Pocky Lover Boy! 

Less than WiiU




130m - best selling system ever

BQ - One system for now but with 4 joycons and 2 docks so only a tablet away from 2 systems. We'll have 3-4 eventually. 

Nov 2016 - NES outsells PS1 (JP)

Don't Play Stationary 4 ever. Switch!

I think 120 million is a pretty safe bet at this point.

I can see the Switch doing more, but I don't fully trust Nintendo yet. Latest case in point: Clubhouse games only lets you play with two players in most games, even games that require more than two people to play (the missing people are replaced with CPUs lol). Even Bowling can't be played with four people, and literally the only reasons I can think of for this is either laziness or the fear that customers are loudly going to demand another Wii Sports like title once they've gotten a taste of it. Clubhouse games could have been huge, but Nintendo decided to gimp it. And we'll see how they handled the latest Paper Mario in a few weeks... If Nintendo release the right games the system should easily sell more than 130m units.

Right now we have one Switch in our household. We won't buy a Switch Lite, but a "nicer" Switch (either a redesign with the better battery life of the latest model, or a beefier version of the hardware) would be a potential buy.