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Forums - Sales Discussion - Nintendo Switch shipped 55.77m by March 31st. Lifetime sales expectations?

 

Nintendo Switch shipped 55.77m by March 31st. Lifetime sales expectations?

Less than 80 million 71 5.77%
 
80.0 - 89.9 million 87 7.07%
 
90.0 - 99.9 million 148 12.02%
 
100.0 - 109.9 million 322 26.16%
 
110.0 - 119.9 million 228 18.52%
 
120.0 - 129.9 million 191 15.52%
 
130.0 - 139.9 million 60 4.87%
 
140.0 - 149.9 million 28 2.27%
 
150.0 - 160.0 million 21 1.71%
 
More than 160 million 75 6.09%
 
Total:1,231
Soren0079 on 03 June 2020

Did anyone see this:https://gonintendo.com/stories/362344-4-2-million-switch-units-were-sold-during-march-2020
4.2 million Switchs in March alone?



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Nautilus on 03 June 2020
Manlytears said:

around 100-105m, perhaps less. I think it will have similar fate to Wii, meaning it will have a massive fall in sales and will be at 100M or less.



My (locked) thread about how difficulty should be a decision for the developers, not the gamers.

https://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread.php?id=241866&page=1

xMetroid on 03 June 2020
Soren0079 said:
Did anyone see this:https://gonintendo.com/stories/362344-4-2-million-switch-units-were-sold-during-march-2020
4.2 million Switchs in March alone?

Yea that's pretty nuts. It means there was very little stock anywhere and the shipment number they gave is super close to the sell through.



TheLegendaryWolf on 03 June 2020

I have a feeling it'll outsell the Wii



Eagle367 on 03 June 2020
TheLegendaryWolf said:
I have a feeling it'll outsell the Wii

The Wii is easy though. It'll be 77mil at least by March 2021. At least 96mil by March 2021. And probably at least 110mil by March 2022. And this is at least in my opinion.



Just a guy who doesn't want to be bored. Also

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Pyro as Bill on 03 June 2020
Nautilus said:
As I said way back in October 2016, being the first one brave enough to declare so, it will do at least 100 million.

You had the 2nd highest estimate from the poll I remember. I intended to take the average at the end but it came out at ~40m so was a complete waste of time. I worked out I'd have to predict 3-4 billion to put the VGC average anywhere close to reality.

What's your prediction now?



Nov 2016 - NES outsells PS1 (JP)

Don't Play Stationary 4 ever. Switch!

Nautilus on 03 June 2020
Pyro as Bill said:
Nautilus said:
As I said way back in October 2016, being the first one brave enough to declare so, it will do at least 100 million.

You had the 2nd highest estimate from the poll I remember. I intended to take the average at the end but it came out at ~40m so was a complete waste of time. I worked out I'd have to predict 3-4 billion to put the VGC average anywhere close to reality.

What's your prediction now?

Really hard to say. I think 100 million is a lock at this point, and if it keeps this up, I guess the minimum should be 130 million.



My (locked) thread about how difficulty should be a decision for the developers, not the gamers.

https://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread.php?id=241866&page=1

Pyro as Bill on 03 June 2020
RolStoppable said:
curl-6 said:

So 20 people so far voted that it won't sell another 22.6 million more between now and it's discontinuation. Would any of these folks like to explain their reasoning?

They are trolling, same as the votes for the highest option (except The_Liquid_Laser who is convinced that Switch will sell more than 160 million). That's how you design a sales poll: The lowest and highest options aren't meant to be generally accepted as reasonable, rather their purpose is to filter out the troll votes.

The folks you have to be the most concerned about are those who voted 80-80.9m because they really mean it.

You should have gone midway to avoid the 100M round number effect (or attempt to reduce it).



Nov 2016 - NES outsells PS1 (JP)

Don't Play Stationary 4 ever. Switch!

Pyro as Bill on 03 June 2020
Nautilus said:
Pyro as Bill said:

You had the 2nd highest estimate from the poll I remember. I intended to take the average at the end but it came out at ~40m so was a complete waste of time. I worked out I'd have to predict 3-4 billion to put the VGC average anywhere close to reality.

What's your prediction now?

Really hard to say. I think 100 million is a lock at this point, and if it keeps this up, I guess the minimum should be 130 million.

Back when you said 100M+, were you sure it would pass Wii's 101M?

https://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread/221574/early-nintendo-switch-sales-predictions/1/



Nov 2016 - NES outsells PS1 (JP)

Don't Play Stationary 4 ever. Switch!

Nautilus on 03 June 2020
Pyro as Bill said:
Nautilus said:

Really hard to say. I think 100 million is a lock at this point, and if it keeps this up, I guess the minimum should be 130 million.

Back when you said 100M+, were you sure it would pass Wii's 101M?

https://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread/221574/early-nintendo-switch-sales-predictions/1/

Ahhhhhh, reading through these threads are always a pleasure.

I mean, sure. I expected it to pass the 100 million mark. It might have ended at 100.5 million, but it would certainly pass.

Man, I'm such a genius. XD



My (locked) thread about how difficulty should be a decision for the developers, not the gamers.

https://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread.php?id=241866&page=1