I voted 96-110m in Machina's poll two years ago and upgraded to 120-129.9m. I expect Switch to end up very close to PS4 either under or over and my prediction for PS4 is around 130m lifetime.
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Nintendo Switch shipped 55.77m by March 31st. Lifetime sales expectations? | |||
Less than 80 million | 71 | 5.77% | |
80.0 - 89.9 million | 87 | 7.07% | |
90.0 - 99.9 million | 148 | 12.02% | |
100.0 - 109.9 million | 322 | 26.16% | |
110.0 - 119.9 million | 228 | 18.52% | |
120.0 - 129.9 million | 191 | 15.52% | |
130.0 - 139.9 million | 60 | 4.87% | |
140.0 - 149.9 million | 28 | 2.27% | |
150.0 - 160.0 million | 21 | 1.71% | |
More than 160 million | 75 | 6.09% | |
Total: | 1,231 |
I voted 96-110m in Machina's poll two years ago and upgraded to 120-129.9m. I expect Switch to end up very close to PS4 either under or over and my prediction for PS4 is around 130m lifetime.
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tbone51 said: I’m going for the Big 150mil mark as I’m a person that believes Nintendo doesn’t need a replacement and can keep pumping out a ton of software and not waste NSW potential. along these opti lines... Fiscal Year 2020 - 77.7mil |
tbone says 150M? Damn, I need to up my prediction, even though I was already at 130M+
The Nintendo eShop rating Thread: http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread.php?id=237454 List as Google Doc: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1aW2hXQT1TheElVS7z-F3pP-7nbqdrDqWNTxl6JoJWBY/edit?usp=sharing
The Steam/GOG key gifting thread: https://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread/242024/the-steamgog-key-gifting-thread/1/
Free Pc Games thread: https://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread/248138/free-pc-games/1/
So only 21% of voters now say it won't reach 100 million, down from over 70% of voters in the 2018 poll. Progress.
To be honest, I voted for 90-99m units, but at the same time I haven't been very invested in gaming news like this until this generation, and it's also a hybrid console (additionally w/ a handheld only model) so I'm struggling to predict how much the Switch will sell. In its current state I could see the Switch selling extremely close to 100m units by the end of its life. I've heard that game consoles generally sell less in the second half of their life, but at the same time the Switch is doing really weird things and seemingly breaks a new record every time I blink, so really I guess anything could happen. From what I've heard, Nintendo had squeezed their suppliers in order to get the Switch Lite's parts cheap enough for it to sell at 200$, so I don't think it could get a price cut, but I think potentially, to keep sales going at the same or a similar rate, the base model could get a price cut to 250$, or at least it will get a bundle that comes with a game or two to keep the base model from looking as intimidating as it does.
around 100-105m, perhaps less. I think it will have similar fate to Wii, meaning it will have a massive fall in sales and will be at 100M or less.
Voted 120-130M
Looks like I voted in the 96-110M range two years ago. That's the low bar right now
Manlytears said: around 100-105m, perhaps less. I think it will have similar fate to Wii, meaning it will have a massive fall in sales and will be at 100M or less. |
why? Nintendo Switch is a hybrid. Heir of Wiiu + 3Ds+ Psvita. He has all portable dedicated market for themselves and arcade consoles games. I see this cliff only Nintendo screw big time and appearance of portable dedicated machine powerhouse, likewise psone.
I thin it has a good chance to reach 120M globally, it may even beat that if Nintendo is willing to back it till the end, Personally I will end up at least with 2 machines cos I would like a standard handheld so I think I am gonna get me a lite one soon
I really don't see a scenario at this point where the Switch sells less than Gameboy but I think it will go quite a bit higher actually. Voted for 130m - 139m.
I think it'll be the 3rd best selling console for sure after NDS and PS2. And if any console is gonna outsell either or both of them, I sincerely believe it's this one but that's like the perfect scenario of Nintendo bringing out just the right games at the right times along with enough stock.
Just a guy who doesn't want to be bored. Also