136-140

It seems very unlikely that sales will fall off so much and so suddenly in this case, but even if it did have a "Wii cliff," that would still put it at over 90m lifetime. Regardless, it's on track to sell that next 22m by 2021 so really there is no argument for that option.

Wii cliff: Nintendo Wii expanded market last game is Donkey Kong Returns in 2010. Thirds party only remains Ubisoft`s Just Dance with the last thrids big seller. Nintendo needs to focus on developing the next big portable, 3DS. Nintendo has three big games failed: Wii Music, Metroid Other M, and Skyward Sword. Also, Nintendo reluctant to bring three RPG games may help the Dry: Xenoblade, Last Story, Pandora Tower. Nintendo doesn't make localization Dragon Quest X. Wii's last fuel in Japan, a great piece of thrids focus in Ps3, PSP, and DS.  Nintendo supports Wii and DS at same time, development 3ds. Macroeconomics trends downhill.

Switch cliff: only macroeconomics trends are equal. Nintendo needs make to many missteps to simulate Wii Cliff. a new portable and new stationary console in development at same time? Only Wiiu ports now? 

135m-140m if a Switch 2 doesn't release until late 2023 at the earliest and I expect Europe to pick up considerably once the Switch gets its first formal price-drop.

True. Just thought it might be interesting to see them try to justify it.

Maybe they misread it and think it says sell another 80mil? Makes more sense that way lol

 No console imo Has every been in such a good position during its 4th year. Even including Sony consoles with the exception of maybe ps2? People even thinking about Wii and making comparisons because of its huge decline to NSW don’t know what they are talking about. Nintendo has no need to bring out its successor anytime soon. It has a unified install base, why cut that when Nintendo can easily build upon that with waves of new releases and evergreens that keep the system afloat

I'm flexible; I've adjusted my estimate up and will do so again if it keeps going the way its going.

I have always been satisfied with the Switch outselling 3DS+ Wii U combined, but the 3ds sold less than I thought.Now I have no clue how much the Switch will sell, because it depends heavily on Nintendo and next gen. Nintendo was willing to give up on perfectly successful consoles in the past, and they may be inclined to do that again if nothing else but to relieve their developers of boredom.

I don't think the PS5 or XB or will make an impact if they are too high in price, so I will have to wait and see.

Very true.  I'd just like to add this to what you said.

Wii sales peaked during it's second full fiscal year on the market, ending March 2009.  Total shipments at this time were 50.4m.  Lifetime shipments were 101.65m which is about double.  These sales curves have a rough kind of symmetry to them.  Wii sales rocketed up early, but they also fell quickly to go with that.  Wii momentum was really based on a very small group of very popular games like Wii Sports and Wii Fit (especially Wii Sports).  It's impossible to sustain this kind of momentum for long, because eventually people will get tired of this very small group of games and move on.

On the other hand Switch has already posted it's third fiscal year, ending March 2020, and it's the highest so far.  Total shipments as of March 2020 are 55.78m.  Worst case scenario for lifetime shipments at this point is basically 110m.  This is assuming the past fiscal year was the peak year.  Switch is growing slower than the Wii, but that also means it's descent will be slower than the Wii.  It isn't relying on one big 80m selling title to move hardware.  On the other hand Switch is going to have a lot more 10m+ sellers than the Wii had.  Switch sales are based on a much bigger library of titles.  This gives a more gradual and steady growth and descent to the sales curve.  This also happens to be how Nintendo sales have gone for all of Nintendo's handheld systems which have many big titles instead of some huge 80m+ seller.

Basically, the Switch isn't going to have a cliff, because that's just not how sales happen.  Every system that has a steady growth also has a steady decline.  People don't look at Nintendo's handheld sales, so they aren't used to seeing sustained high sales from them.  There is this myth that Nintendo has only had one successful system since the 90's, the Wii, so the Switch must sell this way too.  The reality is that Nintendo has always been at the top of the handheld market, and getting sustained high sales is normal for them.