Nintendo Switch shipped 55.77m by March 31st. Lifetime sales expectations?

[The_Liquid_Laser]

Agente42 said:

Zero_Revolution said:

It seems very unlikely that sales will fall off so much and so suddenly in this case, but even if it did have a "Wii cliff," that would still put it at over 90m lifetime. Regardless, it's on track to sell that next 22m by 2021 so really there is no argument for that option.

Wii cliff: Nintendo Wii expanded market last game is Donkey Kong Returns in 2010. Thirds party only remains Ubisoft`s Just Dance with the last thrids big seller. Nintendo needs to focus on developing the next big portable, 3DS. Nintendo has three big games failed: Wii Music, Metroid Other M, and Skyward Sword. Also, Nintendo reluctant to bring three RPG games may help the Dry: Xenoblade, Last Story, Pandora Tower. Nintendo doesn't make localization Dragon Quest X. Wii's last fuel in Japan, a great piece of thrids focus in Ps3, PSP, and DS.  Nintendo supports Wii and DS at same time, development 3ds. Macroeconomics trends downhill.

Switch cliff: only macroeconomics trends are equal. Nintendo needs make to many missteps to simulate Wii Cliff. a new portable and new stationary console in development at same time? Only Wiiu ports now? 

Very true.  I'd just like to add this to what you said.

Wii sales peaked during it's second full fiscal year on the market, ending March 2009.  Total shipments at this time were 50.4m.  Lifetime shipments were 101.65m which is about double.  These sales curves have a rough kind of symmetry to them.  Wii sales rocketed up early, but they also fell quickly to go with that.  Wii momentum was really based on a very small group of very popular games like Wii Sports and Wii Fit (especially Wii Sports).  It's impossible to sustain this kind of momentum for long, because eventually people will get tired of this very small group of games and move on.

On the other hand Switch has already posted it's third fiscal year, ending March 2020, and it's the highest so far.  Total shipments as of March 2020 are 55.78m.  Worst case scenario for lifetime shipments at this point is basically 110m.  This is assuming the past fiscal year was the peak year.  Switch is growing slower than the Wii, but that also means it's descent will be slower than the Wii.  It isn't relying on one big 80m selling title to move hardware.  On the other hand Switch is going to have a lot more 10m+ sellers than the Wii had.  Switch sales are based on a much bigger library of titles.  This gives a more gradual and steady growth and descent to the sales curve.  This also happens to be how Nintendo sales have gone for all of Nintendo's handheld systems which have many big titles instead of some huge 80m+ seller.

Basically, the Switch isn't going to have a cliff, because that's just not how sales happen.  Every system that has a steady growth also has a steady decline.  People don't look at Nintendo's handheld sales, so they aren't used to seeing sustained high sales from them.  There is this myth that Nintendo has only had one successful system since the 90's, the Wii, so the Switch must sell this way too.  The reality is that Nintendo has always been at the top of the handheld market, and getting sustained high sales is normal for them.

Last edited by The_Liquid_Laser - on 02 June 2020