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Forums - Sales Discussion - Japan Sales Week 45 Media Create/Famitsu/Dengeki - November 05- 11, 2018

Mnementh said:
Megiddo said:
How many Switch units are people expecting in next week's MC numbers? I'm curious.

I'm guessing about 180,000 personally. Though the Switch has been pretty much always in the 40-60k range this year, so it's hard to get any sort of read on what a massive title release will do.

Probably Switches could be sold out next week again. I just can't see that retailers have so much room for this big a game release and as Switch is still early many who want Pokemon still don't have a Switch. So probably what retailers have in stock, which could be 100K-150K. The sold out situation will be kept for only a few days though. So the week after hardware sales should still be elevated.

We've already got Chris on Era saying that the bundles are not at all supply limited. Whoever wants to buy a bundle will be able to.

https://www.resetera.com/posts/14966618/



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Jranation said:
Switch eating that shit with 50k+ Next week is going to be Amazing! I wonder how the Pacman will look like......

And what is up with the PS4? Stock issues? Another price drop incoming?

No, that is basically the PS4 baseline. PS4 dropped to 16K multiple times this year if nothing happened. The only surprising thing is, that this close to the holidays and shortly after RDR2 (which already sells below Call of Duty anyways) it is back to baseline.



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Wyrdness said:
Wtf happened to the PS4 this week?

It dropped ~1.5k units. About a ~8% drop. Is that so surprising to you to say the above quote?



From now on, I'll do a 52 weeks chart so that it can be compared to last years numbers in the same period of week. Week 45 saw an increase from previous week by 10k+ but down from last year's week by 10k+.

Week 45 from PS4 saw a decrease by 1k+ and from last years' by 12k+

Switch is gaining momentum towards Pokemon and SSMBU games are soon to be released. The baseline from SW is @39500 (above tw) while the PS4 is @17568 (below tw)

Update: had numbers wrong in last years week

Last edited by nero - on 14 November 2018

Megiddo said:
Mnementh said:

Probably Switches could be sold out next week again. I just can't see that retailers have so much room for this big a game release and as Switch is still early many who want Pokemon still don't have a Switch. So probably what retailers have in stock, which could be 100K-150K. The sold out situation will be kept for only a few days though. So the week after hardware sales should still be elevated.

We've already got Chris on Era saying that the bundles are not at all supply limited. Whoever wants to buy a bundle will be able to.

https://www.resetera.com/posts/14966618/

Uh, nice. Well, maybe I'm too conservative, but probably more than 150K is a bit much too, this early before Christmas.

 

EDIT: Seeing Neros graph reinforces my opinion. Outside of direct christmas Nintendo didn't have > 150K weeks and even MonHun release for PS4 left the hardware below 150K. So going above 150K would be pretty enormous.

Last edited by Mnementh - on 14 November 2018

3DS-FC: 4511-1768-7903 (Mii-Name: Mnementh), Nintendo-Network-ID: Mnementh, Switch: SW-7706-3819-9381 (Mnementh)

my greatest games: 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020

10 years greatest game event!

bets: [peak year] [+], [1], [2], [3], [4]

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nero said:

From now on, I'll do a 52 weeks chart so that it can be compared to last years numbers in the same period of week. Week 45 saw an increase from previous week by 10k+ but down from last year's week by 10k+.


Thanks for the work. It is incredible how big Christmas is for Switch compared to PS4. And more incredible that the MonHun World peak is higher than Christmas for PS4.



3DS-FC: 4511-1768-7903 (Mii-Name: Mnementh), Nintendo-Network-ID: Mnementh, Switch: SW-7706-3819-9381 (Mnementh)

my greatest games: 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020

10 years greatest game event!

bets: [peak year] [+], [1], [2], [3], [4]

Mnementh said:
Megiddo said:

We've already got Chris on Era saying that the bundles are not at all supply limited. Whoever wants to buy a bundle will be able to.

https://www.resetera.com/posts/14966618/

Uh, nice. Well, maybe I'm too conservative, but probably more than 150K is a bit much too, this early before Christmas.

Nah. This is the week with both Smash and Pokemon bundles. It's the release of Pokemon. Gotta have huge numbers if it hopes to have a good December. If it's less than 2x what it was last year (86,999) where the only thing it had was the 3rd week since SMO's release that would be just awful.



Megiddo said:
Mnementh said:

Uh, nice. Well, maybe I'm too conservative, but probably more than 150K is a bit much too, this early before Christmas.

Nah. This is the week with both Smash and Pokemon bundles. It's the release of Pokemon. Gotta have huge numbers if it hopes to have a good December. If it's less than 2x what it was last year (86,999) where the only thing it had was the 3rd week since SMO's release that would be just awful.

Well, either way, next week and ongoing will be very interesting.



3DS-FC: 4511-1768-7903 (Mii-Name: Mnementh), Nintendo-Network-ID: Mnementh, Switch: SW-7706-3819-9381 (Mnementh)

my greatest games: 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020

10 years greatest game event!

bets: [peak year] [+], [1], [2], [3], [4]

Megiddo said:
How many Switch units are people expecting in next week's MC numbers? I'm curious.

I'm guessing about 180,000 personally. Though the Switch has been pretty much always in the 40-60k range this year, so it's hard to get any sort of read on what a massive title release will do.

If we compared to last holiday dates and releases.

Odyssey week launched with ~127k units and week 47 was at ~145k units. Releasing this week is:

  • Pokemon LG
  • Pokemon Bundles
  • Smash Bundle
  • SMP Joy con bundle
  • 4 minor games that wont drive any sales what so ever.
I think 180k should easily be achieveable... and quite frankly, it really should be a lot higher than that. But I wont guess a number. But who the heck knows hehe... it's a very weird year in terms of sales. It's been steady as you mention, I believe this week was the third highest for the entire year. It's been close static to 40-50+k for almost the entire year.


Pretty excited to see the impact that Pokemon will have.

Call of Duty is also doing super well.



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