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Forums - Sales Discussion - Japan Sales Week 45 Media Create/Famitsu/Dengeki - November 05- 11, 2018

Replicant said:

PS4 is so low. It needs a price cut and it needs to start receiving some of the upcoming and promising games.

Kingdom Hearts 3
Resident Evil 2
Devil May Cry V
Granblue Fantasy Project Re:Link
Lost Soul Aside
Code Vein
Edge of Eternity
Sekiro
Ghost of Tsushima
Judge Eyes
Left Alive
Ace Combat 7
Digimon Survive
Final Fantasy VII Remake (might not even launch on PS4)

Japan only accounts for 8% of total PS4 sales.  A better scenario would be for the games you listed to up their western sales potential.  Its easier for the PS4 to go from 79 million western PS4's to 115 million than Japan going from 7 million to 10 million.



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I'll be honest, even before the PSPro price cut, I did not think PS4 would be slipping after three big 100,000 games at this point, one of them being easily 500,000.



 

Megiddo said:
How many Switch units are people expecting in next week's MC numbers? I'm curious.

I'm guessing about 180,000 personally. Though the Switch has been pretty much always in the 40-60k range this year, so it's hard to get any sort of read on what a massive title release will do.

I expecting around 200k, more than 150k in any case.



Train wreck said:
Replicant said:

PS4 is so low. It needs a price cut and it needs to start receiving some of the upcoming and promising games.

Kingdom Hearts 3
Resident Evil 2
Devil May Cry V
Granblue Fantasy Project Re:Link
Lost Soul Aside
Code Vein
Edge of Eternity
Sekiro
Ghost of Tsushima
Judge Eyes
Left Alive
Ace Combat 7
Digimon Survive
Final Fantasy VII Remake (might not even launch on PS4)

Japan only accounts for 8% of total PS4 sales. A better scenario would be for the games you listed to up their western sales potential. Its easier for the PS4 to go from 79 million western PS4's to 115 million than Japan going from 7 million to 10 million.

That's true and hopefully these games will do good in the West.

However, I'd still like to see PS4 improving and keeping its lead over PS3 in Japan.



nero said:
Mbolibombo said:

If we compared to last holiday dates and releases.

Odyssey week launched with ~127k units and week 47 was at ~145k units. Releasing this week is:

 

  • Pokemon LG
  • Pokemon Bundles
  • Smash Bundle
  • SMP Joy con bundle
  • 4 minor games that wont drive any sales what so ever.
I think 180k should easily be achieveable... and quite frankly, it really should be a lot higher than that. But I wont guess a number. But who the heck knows hehe... it's a very weird year in terms of sales. It's been steady as you mention, I believe this week was the third highest for the entire year. It's been close static to 40-50+k for almost the entire year.

 

Can we have 200k+? It may be possible as you said it's been stable this year. And this will be the fourth highest week

# W Sales
1 1 146006
2 33 54647
3 11 54342
4 45 54235
5 29 53745
6 18 53113
7 31 50799
8 26 50762
9 12 50412
10 28 50239

top 2-4 are definately super close :O

I'd be surprised if it didnt reach 200k+.  But i've been surprised a lot of times this year ;P



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Megiddo said:
tbone51 said:

Has to do 400k? Huh lol. If it did 400k next week it would mean itll be closer to 5mil than 4mil by years end. Have you seen best HW weeks outside of launch? I mean "400k" xD

It needs 275k each week xD.

If it can't eat into its AWN with Pokemon launch + Pokemon/Smash bundles then the Math will become impossible xD

For instance if it's 150k next week then it will need 295k the remaining weeks xD

400k will lower it to 250k the remaining weeks xD

It has to actually hit and surpass its AWN eventually if it wants to hit 4 million xD

That said the Nintendo Switch will always have it's peak holiday sales week in December of the year rather than November in Japan regardless of big titles releasing prior as is the traditional trend of Nintendo consoles. What ever Switch does in sales next week, is very likely not going to be it's best performing week of the year. If it does somehow out do it's AWN (which won't happen) next week despite being a traditionally less performing month, then December must have some record breaking sales ahead for Switch.



KH HD 1.5 + 2.5 returns to the top 20 and is so close to 200k 

Spider-Man above 300k

NoCtiS_NoX said: 

Switch Pac-Man 



Acevil said:
I'll be honest, even before the PSPro price cut, I did not think PS4 would be slipping after three big 100,000 games at this point, one of them being easily 500,000.

You thought bo4 would push hardware? How many cods has the ps4 had this gen? A lot. 



I'm thinking the last 10 weeks of the year will be similar to 3DS in 2011 or 2012

2011
Week 43-65k
Week 44-145k (Super Mario 3D Land, 343k)
Week 45-104k
Week 46-96k
Week 47-121k
Week 48-206k (Mario Kart 7, 423k)
Week 49-350k (Monster Hunter 3G, 522k)
Week 50-368k (Inazuma Eleven Go, 135k)
Week 51-482k
Week 52-198k
Total-2135k

2012
Week 43-61k
Week 44-94k
Week 45-187k (Animal Crossing, 603k)
Week 46-169k
Week 47-162k (Pokemon Mystery Dungeon, 121k)
Week 48-167k (Layton vs Ace Attorney, 129k)
Week 49-211k (Paper Mario Sticker Star, 129k)
Week 50-319k (Inazuma Eleven Go 2-168k)
Week 51-411k
Week 52-250k (Fantasy Life, 117k)
Total-2030k

 

Edit: Switch 2017 for reference

Week 43-127k (Super Mario Odyssey, 462k)

Week 44-64k

 Week 45-80k

Week 46-87k

Week 47-145k

Week 48-125k (Xenoblade 2, 98k)

Week 49-165k

Week 50-221k

Week 51-270k

Week 52-135k

Total-1420k

Last edited by zorg1000 - on 14 November 2018

When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.

zorg1000 said:
I'm thinking the last 10 weeks of the year will be similar to 3DS in 2011 or 2012

2011
Week 43-65k
Week 44-145k (Super Mario 3D Land, 343k)
Week 45-104k
Week 46-96k
Week 47-121k
Week 48-206k (Mario Kart 7, 423k)
Week 49-350k (Monster Hunter 3G, 522k)
Week 50-368k (Inazuma Eleven Go, 135k)
Week 51-482k
Week 52-198k
Total-2135k

2012
Week 43-61k
Week 44-94k
Week 45-187k (Animal Crossing, 603k)
Week 46-169k
Week 47-162k (Pokemon Mystery Dungeon, 121k)
Week 48-167k (Layton vs Ace Attorney, 129k)
Week 49-211k (Paper Mario Sticker Star, 129k)
Week 50-319k (Inazuma Eleven Go 2-168k)
Week 51-411k
Week 52-250k (Fantasy Life, 117k)
Total-2030k

I dare you to specify that 'similar' ...