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Forums - Sales Discussion - Japan Sales Week 45 Media Create/Famitsu/Dengeki - November 05- 11, 2018

Nothing really happening this week.



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Mnementh said:
nero said:

From now on, I'll do a 52 weeks chart so that it can be compared to last years numbers in the same period of week. Week 45 saw an increase from previous week by 10k+ but down from last year's week by 10k+.


Thanks for the work. It is incredible how big Christmas is for Switch compared to PS4. And more incredible that the MonHun World peak is higher than Christmas for PS4.

That's exactly what I was going to say.  I wonder how many times that has ever happened.  I've never known a game to cause a larger hardware spike than the holiday seasons itself.



Massimus - "Trump already has democrat support."

Megiddo said:

Here is the week 45 update in terms of the two big consoles in Japan's path to be able to reach the commonly stated (in these sales threads) estimates for 2018 sales (2 mil for PS4, 4 mil for Switch) .

  TWS GD YTD % Goal AWN (Change)
PS4 16,081 -66,034 1,359,155 68.0% (+0.8) 91,549 (+9434)
Switch 54,235 -191,483 2,088,488 52.2% (+2.1) 273,355 (+27,355)

TWS - This week's sales
GD - Goal differential, the difference between the average week needed from last week compared to this week's sales
YTD - Units sold in 2018 so far including this week's sales
AWN - Average weekly sales needed to reach the estimate for the console.

At this point, it looks like it's merely a race to see who can get closest to the goal. The Switch would have to sell 400k+ with the Smash/Pokemon bundles in next week's numbers to convince me it has a prayer of reaching its goal. The PS4 has no chance at all. So who can get closest? We'll have a very good idea of Pokemon and Smash's holiday power next week.

Has to do 400k? Huh lol. If it did 400k next week it would mean itll be closer to 5mil than 4mil by years end. Have you seen best HW weeks outside of launch? I mean "400k" xD



Mbolibombo said:
Megiddo said:
How many Switch units are people expecting in next week's MC numbers? I'm curious.

I'm guessing about 180,000 personally. Though the Switch has been pretty much always in the 40-60k range this year, so it's hard to get any sort of read on what a massive title release will do.

If we compared to last holiday dates and releases.

Odyssey week launched with ~127k units and week 47 was at ~145k units. Releasing this week is:

 

  • Pokemon LG
  • Pokemon Bundles
  • Smash Bundle
  • SMP Joy con bundle
  • 4 minor games that wont drive any sales what so ever.
I think 180k should easily be achieveable... and quite frankly, it really should be a lot higher than that. But I wont guess a number. But who the heck knows hehe... it's a very weird year in terms of sales. It's been steady as you mention, I believe this week was the third highest for the entire year. It's been close static to 40-50+k for almost the entire year.

 

Can we have 200k+? It may be possible as you said it's been stable this year. And this will be the fourth highest week

# W Sales
1 1 146006
2 33 54647
3 11 54342
4 45 54235
5 29 53745
6 18 53113
7 31 50799
8 26 50762
9 12 50412
10 28 50239


tbone51 said:
Megiddo said:

Here is the week 45 update in terms of the two big consoles in Japan's path to be able to reach the commonly stated (in these sales threads) estimates for 2018 sales (2 mil for PS4, 4 mil for Switch) .

  TWS GD YTD % Goal AWN (Change)
PS4 16,081 -66,034 1,359,155 68.0% (+0.8) 91,549 (+9434)
Switch 54,235 -191,483 2,088,488 52.2% (+2.1) 273,355 (+27,355)

TWS - This week's sales
GD - Goal differential, the difference between the average week needed from last week compared to this week's sales
YTD - Units sold in 2018 so far including this week's sales
AWN - Average weekly sales needed to reach the estimate for the console.

At this point, it looks like it's merely a race to see who can get closest to the goal. The Switch would have to sell 400k+ with the Smash/Pokemon bundles in next week's numbers to convince me it has a prayer of reaching its goal. The PS4 has no chance at all. So who can get closest? We'll have a very good idea of Pokemon and Smash's holiday power next week.

Has to do 400k? Huh lol. If it did 400k next week it would mean itll be closer to 5mil than 4mil by years end. Have you seen best HW weeks outside of launch? I mean "400k" xD

It needs 275k each week xD.

If it can't eat into its AWN with Pokemon launch + Pokemon/Smash bundles then the Math will become impossible xD

For instance if it's 150k next week then it will need 295k the remaining weeks xD

400k will lower it to 250k the remaining weeks xD

It has to actually hit and surpass its AWN eventually if it wants to hit 4 million xD

Last edited by Megiddo - on 14 November 2018

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I do believe with the power of bundles and Pokémon, the Switch could make it to 200K next week but since we're still talking about another type of experience more aimed at casual players, it might seem that it's effect would be better during december while people's on Christmas shopping.



Switch Friend Code : 3905-6122-2909 

The calm before the storm. Things will get interesting again soon. The bump in Switch sales is nice to see with nothing of note releasing this week.



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I saw (here or on another website, can't remember) that some Japanese stores warned their customers about possible shortages of Switch. Could explain the bump before the big releases, some worried parents securing the Christmas gifts?



Faelco said:

I saw (here or on another website, can't remember) that some Japanese stores warned their customers about possible shortages of Switch. Could explain the bump before the big releases, some worried parents securing the Christmas gifts?

It will be shortages all over again.. Damn NS if it's true



PS4 is so low. It needs a price cut and it needs to start receiving some of the upcoming and promising games.

Kingdom Hearts 3
Resident Evil 2
Devil May Cry V
Granblue Fantasy Project Re:Link
Lost Soul Aside
Code Vein
Edge of Eternity
Sekiro
Ghost of Tsushima
Judge Eyes
Left Alive
Ace Combat 7
Digimon Survive
Final Fantasy VII Remake (might not even launch on PS4)