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Forums - Sales Discussion - Japan Sales Week 39 Media Create/Famitsu/Dengeki - September 24-30, 2018

Megiddo on 03 October 2018
RolStoppable said:
Megiddo said:

I mean, do you understand what 'this calendar year' means? It's not some arbitrary range as you seem to have selected.

This has to be your weakest argument I've read yet. Yes, tentpole games will raise sales. That's not some amazing secret. It's not Sony's fault that Nintendo didn't have a tentpole game in the first 10 months of this calendar year.

I remember your prediction for PS4 and Switch sales for calendar year 2018 in Japan. Do you want to say what it was or shall I do it?

2.8m for PS4, 3.6m for Switch.

Expected a summer price drop for PS4 that never came sadly. Some big games are in January instead of Nov/Dec as I thought they'd be.  Looks like I'll be right around on point for Switch at least. But yeah, Sony really befuddles me with how highly priced they're keeping the base PS4 in Japan in its 5th year.

So yeah, this has been an awful year for the PS4 in Japan, even with MHW.

Last edited by Megiddo - on 03 October 2018

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Megiddo on 03 October 2018
RolStoppable said:
Megiddo said:

2.8m for PS4, 3.6m for Switch.

Expected a summer price drop for PS4 that never came sadly. Some big games are in January instead of Nov/Dec as I thought they'd be.  Looks like I'll be right around on point for Switch at least. But yeah, Sony really befuddles me with how highly priced they're keeping the base PS4 in Japan in its 5th year.

Exactly, the narrative you tried to push here runs contrary to your prediction.

What narrative am I trying to push by posting factual (unlike zorg, non-cherrypicked) data?

I've got popcorn. So go on.

In case the little math problem above was too hard, I'll solve it.

9% of PS4s are sold in Japan.

25% of Switches are sold in Japan.

So the ratio of Switches to PS4s sold in Japan for a year where both systems globally sell the same amount should be a little over 2.75 Switches sold for every PS4. That should be the baseline expectation unless Nintendo drastically overestimated demand for their product in their fiscal year projection once again, which it's looking quite likely I'd say.

Last edited by Megiddo - on 03 October 2018

dharh on 03 October 2018

twenty three



A warrior keeps death on the mind from the moment of their first breath to the moment of their last.
zorg1000 on 03 October 2018
Megiddo said:
zorg1000 said:

You do realize Monster Hunter boost skews things?

From Week 8-week 39

PS4-685,447

NSW-1,415,159

When talking about whether or not something IS dominating, you look at current sales, not ones from 8-9 months ago.

I mean, do you understand what 'this calendar year' means? It's not some arbitrary range as you seem to have selected.

This has to be your weakest argument I've read yet. Yes, tentpole games will raise sales. That's not some amazing secret. It's not Sony's fault that Nintendo didn't have a tentpole game in the first 10 months of this calendar year.

Even in that cherry-picked range, the ratio is 67/33 and not the 75/25 that it should be.

If you want to talk about sales trends then bringing up a boost from 8-9 months ago is irrelevant. Switch has consistently been outselling PS4 2:1 since mid-February and it's going to be like 4:1 or 5:1 in the upcoming quarter.



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.

Megiddo on 03 October 2018
RolStoppable said:
Megiddo said:

(...)

In case the little math problem above was too hard, I'll solve it.

9% of PS4s are sold in Japan.

25% of Switches are sold in Japan.

So the ratio of Switches to PS4s sold in Japan for a year where both systems globally sell the same amount should be a little over 2.75 Switches sold for every PS4. That should be the baseline expectation unless Nintendo drastically overestimated demand for their product in their fiscal year projection once again, which it's looking quite likely I'd say.

I'll give you a response for your edit.

You are saying that the baseline expectation when PS4 is predicted to sell 2m in Japan should be approximately 5.5m for Switch, give or take a little bit depending on how global sales play out. Does that really sound right to you?

The mistake you make is that you consider the 25% value for Switch as set in stone when the sample size for that value has only been one year. A year that saw staggered launches across different countries. Naturally, Nintendo's global expectation is that Japan's percentage decreases over time, so employing the maths you did is wrong by default. The resulting multiplier should have told you as much.

It has been a year and a half. There has been very little change from the 25% value in 2018.

2017 - 3.3m / 13.3m = ~25%

2018 - 1.7m / 7.1m = ~24%

5.5m sold in Japan is what Nintendo would need to do to match PS4 globally if it sold 2m in Japan, assuming all other ratios are even, yes.



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Kerotan on 03 October 2018
Bofferbrauer2 said:
Kerotan said:

Still expecting it to fall off a cliff? :P

 

Yeah hopefully ps4 can end the year with a bigger user base 

Don't let the picture fool you, that's Miamotoo (who lost his bet), not QuickRick

Oh ffs xD when I reply i don't usually look at a posters name if i recognise their pic. For our sake let's hope Rick doesn't go Serving more crow for bets he wins! 



Mnementh on 03 October 2018
Megiddo said:
RolStoppable said:

Exactly, the narrative you tried to push here runs contrary to your prediction.

What narrative am I trying to push by posting factual (unlike zorg, non-cherrypicked) data?

I've got popcorn. So go on.

In case the little math problem above was too hard, I'll solve it.

9% of PS4s are sold in Japan.

25% of Switches are sold in Japan.

So the ratio of Switches to PS4s sold in Japan for a year where both systems globally sell the same amount should be a little over 2.75 Switches sold for every PS4. That should be the baseline expectation unless Nintendo drastically overestimated demand for their product in their fiscal year projection once again, which it's looking quite likely I'd say.

So... you try to turn the direction of the discussion and gloss over the silly statements you made before? This is kinda funny, more so because YOU talk about breaking out the popcorn. LOL.

Problem is, as you do this to make look PS4 better, and you do such a bad job at it, you actually make PS4 look bad. This is wrong. PS4 did great. And that includes Japan, PS4 did great in Japan and kept console gaming a big factor in Japan.



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Keybladewielder on 03 October 2018

Poor The World Ends with You :( I hope the Western sales of this version are at least decent (Pls Square make a sequel)
Trails of Cold Steel IV did like 19k less than III, boo. Valkyria Chronicles on Switch didn't do well but it's a super late port so I guess it was to be expected.
Meh hardware sales, at least the ps4 is above 20k and Switch above 40k.



TheBraveGallade on 04 October 2018

The only real reason it seems iffy that the switch will beat PS4 in Japan by this holiday is because of the early year MHW boost.



Kerotan on 04 October 2018
TheBraveGallade said:
The only real reason it seems iffy that the switch will beat PS4 in Japan by this holiday is because of the early year MHW boost.

What does mhw not count or something? Should we just exclude the Splatoon effect on the Switch or the upcoming smash?