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Forums - Sales Discussion - Japan Sales Week 39 Media Create/Famitsu/Dengeki - September 24-30, 2018

Megiddo said:
PortisheadBiscuit said:

It's also a $300 "portable" system

That didn't seem to phase Nintendo when they projected 20 million units, so I'm not sure why you think that's notable?

Did you, or did you not say??  "The 2nd year of a Nintendo portable system should be slaughtering the 5th year of a Sony home console in Japan"

Please explain how a $300 hybrid is supposed to have the same sales trajectory as a $170 dedicated handheld in Japan. 



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PortisheadBiscuit said:
Megiddo said:

That didn't seem to phase Nintendo when they projected 20 million units, so I'm not sure why you think that's notable?

Did you, or did you not say??  "The 2nd year of a Nintendo portable system should be slaughtering the 5th year of a Sony home console in Japan"

Please explain how a $300 hybrid is supposed to have the same sales trajectory as a $170 dedicated handheld in Japan. 

It shouldn't. It should still slaughter the 5th year of a dedicated home console. I didn't bring up Nintendo dedicated handheld sales, but if you want to, here's a chart for that (+ Wii) from Resetera.



Megiddo said:
PortisheadBiscuit said:

Did you, or did you not say??  "The 2nd year of a Nintendo portable system should be slaughtering the 5th year of a Sony home console in Japan"

Please explain how a $300 hybrid is supposed to have the same sales trajectory as a $170 dedicated handheld in Japan. 

It shouldn't. It should still slaughter the 5th year of a dedicated home console. I didn't bring up Nintendo dedicated handheld sales, but if you want to, here's a chart for that (+ Wii) from Resetera.

Looking pretty good for Switch, this is about the time that Wii starting losing momentum and DS/3DS were about half the price with revisions already.



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.

Megiddo said:
JRPGfan said:
Theres barely a 2m gap between the PS4 and Switch now in japan.....

Its crazy the Switch closed that gap by like 600k this year alone, and with the holidays comeing up... hmm.

That's not crazy at all. If anything it's crazy that it has only closed by that much so far. The 2nd year of a Nintendo portable system should be slaughtering the 5th year of a Sony home console in Japan.  Reminder that Nintendo is expecting to ship 20 million Switch units this fiscal year. They are waaaaaaay off course in Japan to meet that with the fiscal year already half over.

Sorry, the new system should slaughter the system in the year after peak (or maybe even peaking this year in japan)? This seems highly unreasonable. That the Switch sells so much more is a sign of the weakness the PS4 shows in japan.



3DS-FC: 4511-1768-7903 (Mii-Name: Mnementh), Nintendo-Network-ID: Mnementh, Switch: SW-7706-3819-9381 (Mnementh)

my greatest games: 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023

10 years greatest game event!

bets: [peak year] [+], [1], [2], [3], [4]

Megiddo said:
PortisheadBiscuit said:

Did you, or did you not say??  "The 2nd year of a Nintendo portable system should be slaughtering the 5th year of a Sony home console in Japan"

Please explain how a $300 hybrid is supposed to have the same sales trajectory as a $170 dedicated handheld in Japan. 

It shouldn't. It should still slaughter the 5th year of a dedicated home console. I didn't bring up Nintendo dedicated handheld sales, but if you want to, here's a chart for that (+ Wii) from Resetera.

It should "slaughter" based on what though? A higher price point than previous handhelds? A smaller overall handheld market? A lack of a huge 1st party title thus far? 



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Miyamotoo said:
Mnementh said:

Yeah, after the last two disappointing weeks they're both up again above their resective baselines (~20K/40K). But this week saw a number of mid-level releases, so that explains it. Does the rest of the year has consistent releases of at least decent software, so they both can keep up?

Anyways, PS4 version of Musou sold 4 times as much as Switch version. For FIFA it was nearly four times the sales. Anyone knows how well the Switch release of Dragon Ball Fighters hold up with this number? Valkyria Chronicles sold 10 times as much at the PS4 first week. But even then, VC4 on PS4 is still disappointing compared with previous entries. This makes me sad, as this games is quite good. I hope for better sales in the West. The World ends with you sold initially 80K in opening week on the DS, so 14K for a remake 10 years later seems OKish.

-PS4 has games like RDR2, CoD, AC Odyssey, BFV, Fallout 76, Just Cause 4 that are not big like they are in West but they can be considered for midsized games, and also price cut for PS4 Pro model.

-Switch in two days have launch of Super Mario Party, and in rest of October game like Mega Man 11, Dark Souls Remastered, Crash Bandicoot, Street Fighter 30th Anniversary Collection, so it should keep up in October. November and December are totaly difrent story, on 15. November we launch of Pokemon Lets Go, launch of Pokemon Lets Go bundles and launch of Smash Bros. Ultimate, in December we have launch of Smash Bros. Ultimate and Dragon Quest Builders 2 (that also comes to PS4), so Switch will kill in November and December espacily from 15. November, in last 6 weeks of week I dont expecting not single one week that will be below 200k.

Ah thanks. You're right. Super Mario Party should keep the Switch momentum until more titles arrive.



3DS-FC: 4511-1768-7903 (Mii-Name: Mnementh), Nintendo-Network-ID: Mnementh, Switch: SW-7706-3819-9381 (Mnementh)

my greatest games: 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023

10 years greatest game event!

bets: [peak year] [+], [1], [2], [3], [4]

Mnementh said:
Megiddo said:

That's not crazy at all. If anything it's crazy that it has only closed by that much so far. The 2nd year of a Nintendo portable system should be slaughtering the 5th year of a Sony home console in Japan.  Reminder that Nintendo is expecting to ship 20 million Switch units this fiscal year. They are waaaaaaay off course in Japan to meet that with the fiscal year already half over.

Sorry, the new system should slaughter the system in the year after peak (or maybe even peaking this year in japan)? This seems highly unreasonable. That the Switch sells so much more is a sign of the weakness the PS4 shows in japan.

Yes, the PS4 is incredibly weak in Japan. Hence when the Switch is just barely easing past it it's not really 'crazy' to be pushing slowly past something that is itself crawling.



Megiddo said:
Mnementh said:

Sorry, the new system should slaughter the system in the year after peak (or maybe even peaking this year in japan)? This seems highly unreasonable. That the Switch sells so much more is a sign of the weakness the PS4 shows in japan.

Yes, the PS4 is incredibly weak in Japan. Hence when the Switch is just barely easing past it it's not really 'crazy' to be pushing slowly past something that is itself crawling.

Switch sells constantly the double amount, that is not 'just barely easing past it'. Or do you really say, that reaching in year two the sales the other system needed five years for is 'just barely easing past'? How much did the PS4 sell in Japan in it's first two years combined, that's the real comparison.



3DS-FC: 4511-1768-7903 (Mii-Name: Mnementh), Nintendo-Network-ID: Mnementh, Switch: SW-7706-3819-9381 (Mnementh)

my greatest games: 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023

10 years greatest game event!

bets: [peak year] [+], [1], [2], [3], [4]

The PS4 sells 9% of its total hardware in Japan.

The Switch sells 25% of its total hardware in Japan.

Given this, about how much better would you expect the Switch to sell in Japan relative to the PS4?

Currently it's at about a 60/40 split in Japan for this calendar year.



Megiddo said:
Mnementh said:

Sorry, the new system should slaughter the system in the year after peak (or maybe even peaking this year in japan)? This seems highly unreasonable. That the Switch sells so much more is a sign of the weakness the PS4 shows in japan.

Yes, the PS4 is incredibly weak in Japan. Hence when the Switch is just barely easing past it it's not really 'crazy' to be pushing slowly past something that is itself crawling.

To be fair PS4 had very strong start of year with MHW launch. Also if you really want to compare sales, compare them for same time period.