Japan Sales Week 39 Media Create/Famitsu/Dengeki - September 24-30, 2018

[Megiddo]

RolStoppable said:

Megiddo said:

(...)

In case the little math problem above was too hard, I'll solve it.

9% of PS4s are sold in Japan.

25% of Switches are sold in Japan.

So the ratio of Switches to PS4s sold in Japan for a year where both systems globally sell the same amount should be a little over 2.75 Switches sold for every PS4. That should be the baseline expectation unless Nintendo drastically overestimated demand for their product in their fiscal year projection once again, which it's looking quite likely I'd say.

I'll give you a response for your edit.

You are saying that the baseline expectation when PS4 is predicted to sell 2m in Japan should be approximately 5.5m for Switch, give or take a little bit depending on how global sales play out. Does that really sound right to you?

The mistake you make is that you consider the 25% value for Switch as set in stone when the sample size for that value has only been one year. A year that saw staggered launches across different countries. Naturally, Nintendo's global expectation is that Japan's percentage decreases over time, so employing the maths you did is wrong by default. The resulting multiplier should have told you as much.

It has been a year and a half. There has been very little change from the 25% value in 2018.

2017 - 3.3m / 13.3m = ~25%

2018 - 1.7m / 7.1m = ~24%

5.5m sold in Japan is what Nintendo would need to do to match PS4 globally if it sold 2m in Japan, assuming all other ratios are even, yes.