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Forums - Nintendo Discussion - What will drive Switch's 20+ million year sales?

melbye said:
Well, yeah. We already know Smash is coming , so is Pokemon. those two alone will drive sales. Nintendo wouldn't project 20 million sold if they didn't have the software

I don't know about that.  Nintendo is notoriously bad at predicting sales of their hardware.  



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zorg1000 said:
Sony shipped 20 million in the Fiscal year from April 2016-March 2017.

Nintendo is forcasting 20 million in the fiscal year from April 2018-March 2019.

PS4 NPD April 2016-175k
PS4 Media Create April 2016-92k
US+Japan April 2016-267k

NSW NPD April 2018-171k
NSW Media Create April 2018-162k
US+Japan April 2018-333k

Europe/Rest of the World probably give PS4 a slight overall lead but nothing overwhelming. Just shows how silly it is to base fiscal year shipments off of the sales of a single month.

Right, that's why I went with global percentage since Japan would be an extremely skewed region. Europe is the highest selling region for the PS4 so to ignore it leads to misleading data such as your numbers above.



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Megiddo said:
zorg1000 said:
Sony shipped 20 million in the Fiscal year from April 2016-March 2017.

Nintendo is forcasting 20 million in the fiscal year from April 2018-March 2019.

PS4 NPD April 2016-175k
PS4 Media Create April 2016-92k
US+Japan April 2016-267k

NSW NPD April 2018-171k
NSW Media Create April 2018-162k
US+Japan April 2018-333k

Europe/Rest of the World probably give PS4 a slight overall lead but nothing overwhelming. Just shows how silly it is to base fiscal year shipments off of the sales of a single month.

Right, that's why I went with global percentage since Japan would be an extremely skewed region. Europe is the highest selling region for the PS4 so to ignore it leads to misleading data such as your numbers above.

I didnt ignore it, i mentioned it in my post, i said Europe/ROW puts PS4 in the lead but its not going to be by a huge margin.

Using last years percentages is flawed since we can see that its not holding true for this year. Last year USA made up 37% of WW sales and japan about 25% but in April sales in those regions were almost identical.



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.

Online capabilities, achievements, Pokemon, Animal Crossing, Yokai Watch 4, Super Smash Bros, Fire Emblem, Fortnite, Yoshi, Star Fox, Mario Tennis, etc. will do the job fine. Keep in mind they have a back catalog with incredible legs (MK8D, Odyssey, BOTW, Splatoon 2) and they’ll probably have some big third parties (most likely ports like GTA V). They’ll miss it if they don’t have a trinity of top tiers (meaning Smash and Pokemon need to be rounded out by a game like Mario Maker or Animal Crossing) or if one of their top three games is poorly-received.



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zorg1000 said:
Megiddo said:

Right, that's why I went with global percentage since Japan would be an extremely skewed region. Europe is the highest selling region for the PS4 so to ignore it leads to misleading data such as your numbers above.

I didnt ignore it, i mentioned it in my post, i said Europe/ROW puts PS4 in the lead but its not going to be by a huge margin.

Using last years percentages is flawed since we can see that its not holding true for this year. Last year USA made up 37% of WW sales and japan about 25% but in April sales in those regions were almost identical.

Are you saying that you believe that the current trend for the Switch has the US comprise less than ~1/3 of the global sales?



Megiddo said:

Are you saying that you believe that the current trend for the Switch has the US comprise less than ~1/3 of the global sales?

He would seem to implicate so when nearly every quarter that the Switch has been on sale, North America has consistently represented 40% +/- 5% of the Switch's total shipment every quarter like clockwork so far in it's life ... 

Total: 40.1% 

2017 Q1: 43.8% Q2: 38.3% 20 Q3: 39.6% Q4: 39.1% 

2018 Q1: 41.0% 

The real kicker for him though is that depending on his definition of a "huge margin", the fact that the US represents a noticeably smaller portion of it's entire shipment for PS4 yet it manages to consistently outsell the Switch in that region can indeed build up a sizable lead like we see VGC currently tracking ... 

3.8M units (Switch) vs 5.2M units (PS4) which translates to nice a 35%+ advantage ... 



VAMatt said:
melbye said:
Well, yeah. We already know Smash is coming , so is Pokemon. those two alone will drive sales. Nintendo wouldn't project 20 million sold if they didn't have the software

I don't know about that.  *Vgchartz's community is notoriously bad at predicting sales of their hardware.  

Fixed for you



 

 

We reap what we sow

160rmf said:
VAMatt said:

I don't know about that.  *Vgchartz's community is notoriously bad at predicting sales of their hardware.  

Fixed for you

Your revision does create an accurate statement.  But, my original was also accurate.  



Megiddo said:
zorg1000 said:

Just to let you know

PS4 sold 175k in April 2016 NPD which was when Sony shipped 20 million for the fiscal year.

Switch sold 171k in April 2018 NPD and Nintendo's forcast is 20 million for the fiscal year.

Right, but wouldn't you say the Switch is much more reliant on North America than the PS4? If my math is accurate from the data on VGchartz, in 2017 Nintendo had 37.2% of Switches sold in the US whereas Sony had 26.3% of PS4s sold in the US.

Taking that data, if you take the same trends for April 2018 for the Switch and April 2016 for the PS4 there would be 460k Switches sold globally and 665k PS4s sold globally. That's a pretty big difference when the two individual NPD totals are so close.

You are aware Switch sold relatively slow in Europe because retailers increased the price compared to the US (330€ at launch) during most of it's first year? Europe is much closer to the US this year than it did last year, even exceeding the US half the time. Taking that 2017 as your base value will skew your statistic just as much as omitting a region does for different reasons.