I'm sure that nintendo was adding labo into their estimates and that didn't do that well or pushed console sales so I think that they're already behind if they plan on pushing sales during the holidays with a game or two.

And the 3DS had Smash and it did very well for it.  And let's not pretend that Smash on 3DS didn't hinder the system selling power of it on the Wii U, ESPECIALLY in Japan.  And of course, the Wii U's marketing was a dumpster fire when they could be bothered to promote at all and was an undesired piece of hardware.  We've seen multiple examples already of how the Wii U demonstrably held back games.  And current evidence points to Smash being new, not a port, so that's what I'm going on.

And Yokai Watch 3 still sold close to 1.5 mil in Japan and had a good impact on system sales.  Like I said, we'll have to see how strong the impact is.  Could be just pretty good or could be very good.  Depends on how much Level-5 pours into making this game a strong revival for the franchise.  

Most signs point to a brand new game and not a port right now.

Ps4 and Switch are at different points in their life cycles.  For example, Switch 2018 is in line with PS4 2015 which wound up over 17 million.  

Nonsensical thread, we already know big titles are coming in the 2nd half of the year.

@Nuvendil As well

What signs do we have? I haven't seen anything other than the initial teaser video.

It's already being driven by Zelda, Mario, and MK8.

But I'm expecting some real heavy shit to show up at E3.

I dont see how people are worried about this.Not yet anyway.A clear sign of why the Switch sold "low" numbers in April is easily explained:Lack of a compelling software launched on that month.Mario, Zelda and XC2 are all big games, but they cant keep pushing the system forever(even though they are the ones that are mostly carrying the sales this first half of the year).And I mean, just look at march.The Switch sold MUCH better that month because it had a new compelling software launching that month: Kirby.And mind you, it was not the best Kirby game ever released.

Now consider the second half of the year launching with Smash, Fire Emblem, Yoshi, Pokemon potentially between end of the year and somewhere early next year, and whatever new title Nintendo announces at E3, and you have one hell of a lineup going July foward.Not to mention that third party will tend to get better as the Switch gets older.Also, you have Yokai Watch 4 in Japan releasing this year, and even though the series is in decline, its still relevant.

There is so much stuff going in favor of the system that I wouldnt worry about reaching that milestone.

Smash Bros, Pokemon, price cuts, overshipping.

Smash being the main game of Nintendo's E3 like BotW and Odyssey before it indicates they consider it to be their next big Switch title. The Wii U ports never got this kind of attention from Nintendo, (even Mario Kart 8 Deluxe which is on track to selling 10 million copies). Then there's all the other hints in the reveal trailer, like the new logo and Link being the BotW version.