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Forums - Nintendo Discussion - What will drive Switch's 20+ million year sales?

Megiddo said:
Nuvendil said:

Another game not being brought up is Yokai Watch 4. It will do little in the States but will be big for Japan. How big, we'll have to see.

Didn't YW3 massively underperform in Japan?

Also for some who don't remember, the Wii U had Smash Bros. It's not the end-all-be-all system seller, especially if the NSW Smash Bros is just a port with a bit of new content.

That's more because it was the Wii u, an undesirable console, than smash not being a system seller. 



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It wont sell 20 million at the rate it's selling even accounting for a big holiday boost. sony predicts 16 million for the fiscal year and its tracking above the switch for a few months so even 16 million will be tough for the switch.



I'm sure that nintendo was adding labo into their estimates and that didn't do that well or pushed console sales so I think that they're already behind if they plan on pushing sales during the holidays with a game or two.



Megiddo said:
Nuvendil said:

Another game not being brought up is Yokai Watch 4. It will do little in the States but will be big for Japan. How big, we'll have to see.

Didn't YW3 massively underperform in Japan?

Also for some who don't remember, the Wii U had Smash Bros. It's not the end-all-be-all system seller, especially if the NSW Smash Bros is just a port with a bit of new content.

And the 3DS had Smash and it did very well for it.  And let's not pretend that Smash on 3DS didn't hinder the system selling power of it on the Wii U, ESPECIALLY in Japan.  And of course, the Wii U's marketing was a dumpster fire when they could be bothered to promote at all and was an undesired piece of hardware.  We've seen multiple examples already of how the Wii U demonstrably held back games.  And current evidence points to Smash being new, not a port, so that's what I'm going on.

And Yokai Watch 3 still sold close to 1.5 mil in Japan and had a good impact on system sales.  Like I said, we'll have to see how strong the impact is.  Could be just pretty good or could be very good.  Depends on how much Level-5 pours into making this game a strong revival for the franchise.  



Megiddo said:
Nuvendil said:

Another game not being brought up is Yokai Watch 4. It will do little in the States but will be big for Japan. How big, we'll have to see.

Didn't YW3 massively underperform in Japan?

Also for some who don't remember, the Wii U had Smash Bros. It's not the end-all-be-all system seller, especially if the NSW Smash Bros is just a port with a bit of new content.

Most signs point to a brand new game and not a port right now.



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Metroid33slayer said:
It wont sell 20 million at the rate it's selling even accounting for a big holiday boost. sony predicts 16 million for the fiscal year and its tracking above the switch for a few months so even 16 million will be tough for the switch.

Ps4 and Switch are at different points in their life cycles.  For example, Switch 2018 is in line with PS4 2015 which wound up over 17 million.  



Nonsensical thread, we already know big titles are coming in the 2nd half of the year.



TruckOSaurus said:
Megiddo said:

Didn't YW3 massively underperform in Japan?

Also for some who don't remember, the Wii U had Smash Bros. It's not the end-all-be-all system seller, especially if the NSW Smash Bros is just a port with a bit of new content.

Most signs point to a brand new game and not a port right now.

@Nuvendil As well

What signs do we have? I haven't seen anything other than the initial teaser video.



It's already being driven by Zelda, Mario, and MK8.

But I'm expecting some real heavy shit to show up at E3.



I dont see how people are worried about this.Not yet anyway.A clear sign of why the Switch sold "low" numbers in April is easily explained:Lack of a compelling software launched on that month.Mario, Zelda and XC2 are all big games, but they cant keep pushing the system forever(even though they are the ones that are mostly carrying the sales this first half of the year).And I mean, just look at march.The Switch sold MUCH better that month because it had a new compelling software launching that month: Kirby.And mind you, it was not the best Kirby game ever released.

Now consider the second half of the year launching with Smash, Fire Emblem, Yoshi, Pokemon potentially between end of the year and somewhere early next year, and whatever new title Nintendo announces at E3, and you have one hell of a lineup going July foward.Not to mention that third party will tend to get better as the Switch gets older.Also, you have Yokai Watch 4 in Japan releasing this year, and even though the series is in decline, its still relevant.

There is so much stuff going in favor of the system that I wouldnt worry about reaching that milestone.



My (locked) thread about how difficulty should be a decision for the developers, not the gamers.

https://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread.php?id=241866&page=1