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Forums - Nintendo Discussion - What will drive Switch's 20+ million year sales?

Pokomon alone is enough to get above 20 million. 

Last edited by Jumpin - on 18 May 2018

I describe myself as a little dose of toxic masculinity.

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Miyamotoo said:

Smash Bros + Pokemon in this FY with some other games like Fire Emblem, will hit 20m mark.
If Pokemon is 2019. game but everything points it's this year game, Nintendo will probably have some other heavy hitter for this FY alongside Smash Bros.

Switch is selling better than XB1 desipte XB1 had Monster Hunter, Far Cry 5, AC Origins...also Switch sales until now are very comparable with PS4 2nd year on market.

Pokemon probably will release this year. But what's going to keep the Switch selling in the first 3 quarters of this year? It might well win the fall/holidays, but it's not garunteed. Spider-Man, CoD, Battlefield 5, Red Dead Redemption, Kingdom Hearts 3 are all games the PS4 will have over Smash and Pokemon, and Sony aren't even expecting to sell 20 million.

At the rate both consoles are going now, PS4 is looking like it will be a good 3 million units ahead (or more) of the Switch by September. This is before Spider-Man, CoD, Battlefield and Red Dead release. I have no doubt Smash and Pokemon will do wonders for Switch, but PS4 has some crazy lineup of games coming at around the same time.

The Xbox One argument is moot because PS4 and Xbox One share the same pie, but Sony has the lion's share. They have the mindshare hence the vastly better sales. Do we have to go through this?



Smash will outsell everything this year so it’s fine.



Errorist76 said:

Tbh...not much this year. They need a considerable price cut if they want to achieve that. Pokemon is going to do a lot though.

That makes no sense, why would they cut the price if it's still selling well? Switch doesn't need a price cut, the games announced by Nintendo will push it past 20M+ with ease.



LethalP said:
Miyamotoo said:

Smash Bros + Pokemon in this FY with some other games like Fire Emblem, will hit 20m mark.
If Pokemon is 2019. game but everything points it's this year game, Nintendo will probably have some other heavy hitter for this FY alongside Smash Bros.

Switch is selling better than XB1 desipte XB1 had Monster Hunter, Far Cry 5, AC Origins...also Switch sales until now are very comparable with PS4 2nd year on market.

Pokemon probably will release this year. But what's going to keep the Switch selling in the first 3 quarters of this year? It might well win the fall/holidays, but it's not garunteed. Spider-Man, CoD, Battlefield 5, Red Dead Redemption, Kingdom Hearts 3 are all games the PS4 will have over Smash and Pokemon, and Sony aren't even expecting to sell 20 million.

At the rate both consoles are going now, PS4 is looking like it will be a good 3 million units ahead (or more) of the Switch by September. This is before Spider-Man, CoD, Battlefield and Red Dead release. I have no doubt Smash and Pokemon will do wonders for Switch, but PS4 has some crazy lineup of games coming at around the same time.

The Xbox One argument is moot because PS4 and Xbox One share the same pie, but Sony has the lion's share. They have the mindshare hence the vastly better sales. Do we have to go through this?

PS4 had mass effect, destiny, horizon, fifa, cod, battlefront 2 last year.

That didn’t do anything to the switch. In fact, zelda and 3D mario from last year are not their top sellers. They are more critical darlings than commercial sellers.

Animal Crossing, Pokemon, 2D Mario, Smash are multiple times bigger than BOTW and Odessey.

Smash and pokemon will be this year best selling games easily.



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I've been asking myself that same question for months now.

Also been asking just why in the world are there so few games for the Switch in the first half of 2018 when Nintendo has unified their systems? Guess they are banking on a massive near-unprecedented bulk of their sales to be in the second half of the year as well as a strong fiscal Q4.



LethalP said:
Miyamotoo said:

Smash Bros + Pokemon in this FY with some other games like Fire Emblem, will hit 20m mark.
If Pokemon is 2019. game but everything points it's this year game, Nintendo will probably have some other heavy hitter for this FY alongside Smash Bros.

Switch is selling better than XB1 desipte XB1 had Monster Hunter, Far Cry 5, AC Origins...also Switch sales until now are very comparable with PS4 2nd year on market.

Pokemon probably will release this year. But what's going to keep the Switch selling in the first 3 quarters of this year? It might well win the fall/holidays, but it's not garunteed. Spider-Man, CoD, Battlefield 5, Red Dead Redemption, Kingdom Hearts 3 are all games the PS4 will have over Smash and Pokemon, and Sony aren't even expecting to sell 20 million.

At the rate both consoles are going now, PS4 is looking like it will be a good 3 million units ahead (or more) of the Switch by September. This is before Spider-Man, CoD, Battlefield and Red Dead release. I have no doubt Smash and Pokemon will do wonders for Switch, but PS4 has some crazy lineup of games coming at around the same time.

The Xbox One argument is moot because PS4 and Xbox One share the same pie, but Sony has the lion's share. They have the mindshare hence the vastly better sales. Do we have to go through this?

Only Q2, 3 and 4 of 2018 matter and Q1 of 2019 for the 20 million forcast for Switch's Fiscal Year Ending March 31st 2019. If Pokemon releases in October/November there is a whole other 5/4 months of sales that it will help drive. Before that there are plenty of titles such as Aces, Fire Emblem, Yoshi, Smash to fill in the space before that. Just because Sony aren't expecting the PS4 to ship 20 million doesn't mean it won't. Also Switch has a much bigger potential in the Japanese market than a home only console to help make up for a lack in sales elsewhere. A combination of Pokemon/Yokai Watch and the pre announcement of an Animal Crossing could sure drive sales there.

Also Switch is still at it's pretty expensive price point of $300 for a handheld/low powered home console.

Last edited by Green098 - on 18 May 2018

Ljink96 said:
Errorist76 said:

Tbh...not much this year. They need a considerable price cut if they want to achieve that. Pokemon is going to do a lot though.

That makes no sense, why would they cut the price if it's still selling well? Switch doesn't need a price cut, the games announced by Nintendo will push it past 20M+ with ease.

Yeah, I agree, all a price cut will do is lower revenue.



I describe myself as a little dose of toxic masculinity.

Pokemon, Animal Crossing (which will drive casuals and hardcore alike to buy switches in droves), and bayo 3 and Metroid prime 4 will drive hardcore's, then throw in more casual friendly games like Mario party and that's a wrap. The second half of 18 is going to make 1st half look like a joke, and the hardware bump will be insane.



With what we know that is 100% sure to release this fiscal year, I'd say they won't reach the 20 million goal. The thing is that Nintendo knows a lot more than we do about what games they'll be releasing so I'm fairly confident that they do have the necessary heavy hitters to get there. Hopefully, E3 will clear some of that up.



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