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Forums - Nintendo Discussion - What will drive Switch's 20+ million year sales?

Smash Bros, Pokemon, price cuts, overshipping.

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Megiddo said:
TruckOSaurus said:

Most signs point to a brand new game and not a port right now.

@Nuvendil As well

What signs do we have? I haven't seen anything other than the initial teaser video.

Smash being the main game of Nintendo's E3 like BotW and Odyssey before it indicates they consider it to be their next big Switch title. The Wii U ports never got this kind of attention from Nintendo, (even Mario Kart 8 Deluxe which is on track to selling 10 million copies). Then there's all the other hints in the reveal trailer, like the new logo and Link being the BotW version.

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Pokemon + Smash should get it close to 20m.
And maybe Switch at 299$ bundled with Mario Kart? that should do it (also increase nintendo subscriptions for online services).

Last edited by JRPGfan - on 18 May 2018

I can see the breakdown going something like this:

April - 1m
May - 1m
June - 1m
July - 1.5m (Octopath/Yokai)
August - 1m
September - 2m (Smash)
October - 1.5m
November - 3.5m (Pokemon)
December - 4m
January - 1.5m
February - 1.5m
March - 1.5m

Megiddo said:
TruckOSaurus said:

Most signs point to a brand new game and not a port right now.

@Nuvendil As well

What signs do we have? I haven't seen anything other than the initial teaser video.

Every game that was an updated port was stated from the start to be an updated port.

When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.

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LethalP said:
Green098 said:

Only Q2, 3 and 4 of 2018 matter and Q1 of 2019 for the 20 million forcast for Switch's Fiscal Year Ending March 31st 2019. If Pokemon releases in October/November there is a whole other 5/4 months of sales that it will help drive. Before that there are plenty of titles such as Aces, Fire Emblem, Yoshi, Smash to fill in the space before that. Just because Sony aren't expecting the PS4 to ship 20 million doesn't mean it won't. Also Switch has a much bigger potential in the Japanese market than a home only console to help make up for a lack in sales elsewhere. A combination of Pokemon/Yokai Watch and the pre announcement of an Animal Crossing could sure drive sales there.

Also Switch is still at it's pretty expensive price point of $300 for a handheld/low powered home console.

Talking calander years, what do you expect Switch to sell?

For calander year around 16-18 million, fiscal year at around 17.5-19.5 million sold through with 20 million shipped. Once Pokemon releases I predict a slightly higher baseline for Switch (especially in Japan for the following months) that's why I believe it will sell more in the fiscal year than calendar year.

Last edited by Green098 - on 18 May 2018

I doubt they will price cut this year, they have little reason to do it with Pokemin and Smash releasing, expecially considering they have plans to make the Switch last longer than usual.
Even if they don't reach 20m thay can still get quite close to it with those two games plus some e3 surprises.

I guess when Nintendo made that 20 million goal they thought that LABO would move a lot more units. Now 20 million, even with Pokemon, isn't going to be easy/likely.

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prob with 3 versions of pokemon and from the looks of it some more 3rd party support coming up from what I saw on the supposed e3 list. They can make a good run at it. Not to mention if they have new switches or colors you can only get by buying a new switch.


Megiddo said:
Nuvendil said:

Another game not being brought up is Yokai Watch 4. It will do little in the States but will be big for Japan. How big, we'll have to see.

Also for some who don't remember, the Wii U had Smash Bros. It's not the end-all-be-all system seller, especially if the NSW Smash Bros is just a port with a bit of new content.

Wii U also had 3D Mario, MK8,  Mario Maker and Splatoon, but all those games come on Wii U when Wii U was already considered for fail and they couldn't change much, but those game are selling Switch units. Also, it seems that Smash Bros for Switch is new game not just port with new content.


Metroid33slayer said:
It wont sell 20 million at the rate it's selling even accounting for a big holiday boost. sony predicts 16 million for the fiscal year and its tracking above the switch for a few months so even 16 million will be tough for the switch.

Offcourse it want at this rate, but with more relases and bigger games it will start selling better esapcily in second half of year when we will have games like Smash Bros, most likly Pokemon and Fire Emblem with some other games. Switch sold 3m in January-March period without big releases,with more relases and bigger games can sell only better. Also Nintendo always can start realsing bundles (console is still selling for $299 whitout game), Black Friday deal and even price cut if its needed one. Saying that Switch want reach 20m just because Sony forecasted 16m for PS4 and had best April from launch because of GoW launch, dont make too much sense.



Nautilus said:
I dont see how people are worried about this.Not yet anyway.A clear sign of why the Switch sold "low" numbers in April is easily explained:Lack of a compelling software launched on that month.Mario, Zelda and XC2 are all big games, but they cant keep pushing the system forever(even though they are the ones that are mostly carrying the sales this first half of the year).And I mean, just look at march.The Switch sold MUCH better that month because it had a new compelling software launching that month: Kirby.And mind you, it was not the best Kirby game ever released.

Now consider the second half of the year launching with Smash, Fire Emblem, Yoshi, Pokemon potentially between end of the year and somewhere early next year, and whatever new title Nintendo announces at E3, and you have one hell of a lineup going July foward.Not to mention that third party will tend to get better as the Switch gets older.Also, you have Yokai Watch 4 in Japan releasing this year, and even though the series is in decline, its still relevant.

There is so much stuff going in favor of the system that I wouldnt worry about reaching that milestone.

They are not, most of them just using this not good month for Switch like reason to be negative about future Switch sales.

Last edited by Miyamotoo - on 18 May 2018