Only Q2, 3 and 4 of 2018 matter and Q1 of 2019 for the 20 million forcast for Switch's Fiscal Year Ending March 31st 2019. If Pokemon releases in October/November there is a whole other 5/4 months of sales that it will help drive. Before that there are plenty of titles such as Aces, Fire Emblem, Yoshi, Smash to fill in the space before that. Just because Sony aren't expecting the PS4 to ship 20 million doesn't mean it won't. Also Switch has a much bigger potential in the Japanese market than a home only console to help make up for a lack in sales elsewhere. A combination of Pokemon/Yokai Watch and the pre announcement of an Animal Crossing could sure drive sales there.
Also Switch is still at it's pretty expensive price point of $300 for a handheld/low powered home console.
Talking calander years, what do you expect Switch to sell?
For calander year around 16-18 million, fiscal year at around 17.5-19.5 million sold through with 20 million shipped. Once Pokemon releases I predict a slightly higher baseline for Switch (especially in Japan for the following months) that's why I believe it will sell more in the fiscal year than calendar year.
Last edited by Green098 - on 18 May 2018