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Forums - Nintendo Discussion - What will drive Switch's 20+ million year sales?

LethalP on 18 May 2018
Green098 said:
LethalP said:

Pokemon probably will release this year. But what's going to keep the Switch selling in the first 3 quarters of this year? It might well win the fall/holidays, but it's not garunteed. Spider-Man, CoD, Battlefield 5, Red Dead Redemption, Kingdom Hearts 3 are all games the PS4 will have over Smash and Pokemon, and Sony aren't even expecting to sell 20 million.

At the rate both consoles are going now, PS4 is looking like it will be a good 3 million units ahead (or more) of the Switch by September. This is before Spider-Man, CoD, Battlefield and Red Dead release. I have no doubt Smash and Pokemon will do wonders for Switch, but PS4 has some crazy lineup of games coming at around the same time.

The Xbox One argument is moot because PS4 and Xbox One share the same pie, but Sony has the lion's share. They have the mindshare hence the vastly better sales. Do we have to go through this?

Only Q2, 3 and 4 of 2018 matter and Q1 of 2019 for the 20 million forcast for Switch's Fiscal Year Ending March 31st 2019. If Pokemon releases in October/November there is a whole other 5/4 months of sales that it will help drive. Before that there are plenty of titles such as Aces, Fire Emblem, Yoshi, Smash to fill in the space before that. Just because Sony aren't expecting the PS4 to ship 20 million doesn't mean it won't. Also Switch has a much bigger potential in the Japanese market than a home only console to help make up for a lack in sales elsewhere. A combination of Pokemon/Yokai Watch and the pre announcement of an Animal Crossing could sure drive sales there.

Also Switch is still at it's pretty expensive price point of $300 for a handheld/low powered home console.

Talking calander years, what do you expect Switch to sell?



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Miyamotoo on 18 May 2018
LethalP said:
Miyamotoo said:

Smash Bros + Pokemon in this FY with some other games like Fire Emblem, will hit 20m mark.
If Pokemon is 2019. game but everything points it's this year game, Nintendo will probably have some other heavy hitter for this FY alongside Smash Bros.

Switch is selling better than XB1 desipte XB1 had Monster Hunter, Far Cry 5, AC Origins...also Switch sales until now are very comparable with PS4 2nd year on market.

Pokemon probably will release this year. But what's going to keep the Switch selling in the first 3 quarters of this year? It might well win the fall/holidays, but it's not garunteed. Spider-Man, CoD, Battlefield 5, Red Dead Redemption, Kingdom Hearts 3 are all games the PS4 will have over Smash and Pokemon, and Sony aren't even expecting to sell 20 million.

At the rate both consoles are going now, PS4 is looking like it will be a good 3 million units ahead (or more) of the Switch by September. This is before Spider-Man, CoD, Battlefield and Red Dead release. I have no doubt Smash and Pokemon will do wonders for Switch, but PS4 has some crazy lineup of games coming at around the same time.

The Xbox One argument is moot because PS4 and Xbox One share the same pie, but Sony has the lion's share. They have the mindshare hence the vastly better sales. Do we have to go through this?

First quarter of FY 2018. in witch Nintendo expecting to ship 20m starts on 1. April. What was going keep seling Switch in 1st 3 months of calendar in witch Switch sold almost 3m whitout big games!? Smash Bros could be September release (FY Q2 release), Pokemon November release (FY Q3 release). PS4 sales dont have anuthing with Switch sales, I dont see why you keep mentione them,  there is reason why Sony expecting that PS4 will sell 16m and why Nintendo expecting that Switch sell 20m, Smash Bros and Pokemon would whitout problem will push Switch to 20m in FY 2018 beacuse we talking about one of Nintendo biggest system seller games.

Yeah, Smash Bros and Pokemon will do wonders from September until December, just in time period it could easily sell/ship around 10m.

You are one that bringed XB1 in talk, saying that XB1 has big 3rd party games while Switch dont them, while Switch is still selling better despite those games and despite XB1 has probably its best year.



Nuvendil on 18 May 2018

If all Nintendo's desired plans go as they wish, I think 20mil is attainable. If October, November, December is Smash, Pokemon, and Fire Emblem, that will be a huge holiday. And it will be a big, big boost for Japan.

Another game not being brought up is Yokai Watch 4. It will do little in the States but will be big for Japan. How big, we'll have to see.



Carl on 18 May 2018

It all depends on if Pokémon is ready.

If it's out this holiday, they'll breeze 20 Million.



                            

weraru_1 on 18 May 2018

Smash and Pokemon. Also: releasing all types of games for all types of fans. I bought a Switch for Zelda. Someone will buy one for Animal Crossing. Someone might buy for Shin Megami Tensei V. Someone might buy for Metroid. People will buy for Fire Emblem. As more people buy, their friends might buy to keep up with each other and stay connected. Etc. At least I hope that's what will happen.



You know that thing when you uhhh...and then you...hmmm. But then you have to...umm, Yuh.

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bowserthedog on 18 May 2018

Smash bros will be a big driver this holiday and it sounds like there will be pokemon as well.

I believe there will be some sort of new model that comes out early next year before the financial year ends to push hardware sales higher.



https://www.youtube.com/channel/UC0JquK6FGR6O-0O-6L-VAuw

Megiddo on 18 May 2018
Nuvendil said:

Another game not being brought up is Yokai Watch 4. It will do little in the States but will be big for Japan. How big, we'll have to see.

Didn't YW3 massively underperform in Japan?

Also for some who don't remember, the Wii U had Smash Bros. It's not the end-all-be-all system seller, especially if the NSW Smash Bros is just a port with a bit of new content.



xMetroid on 18 May 2018

Y'all don't understand how much Nintendo can sell during fall/holiday this year. Last year they had no crazy release schedule (only a 3D Mario as a big seller), no promotions or deals not even on BF.. There is no big seller yet and especially in Japan. If we get Pokemon and smash this year, we can already expect the Switch to go over 100k for several weeks in Japan only and probably 200k lmao.

Also, most games will get announce at E3 this year, maybe the thread would make more sense afterward.



MasonADC on 18 May 2018
Megiddo said:
Nuvendil said:

Another game not being brought up is Yokai Watch 4. It will do little in the States but will be big for Japan. How big, we'll have to see.

Didn't YW3 massively underperform in Japan?

Also for some who don't remember, the Wii U had Smash Bros. It's not the end-all-be-all system seller, especially if the NSW Smash Bros is just a port with a bit of new content.

That's more because it was the Wii u, an undesirable console, than smash not being a system seller. 



Metroid33slayer on 18 May 2018

It wont sell 20 million at the rate it's selling even accounting for a big holiday boost. sony predicts 16 million for the fiscal year and its tracking above the switch for a few months so even 16 million will be tough for the switch.