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Forums - Nintendo Discussion - What will drive Switch's 20+ million year sales?

Lonely_Dolphin said:

True, and May n June are unlikely to be much better, so it's gonna need more sales in the back half of the year to make up for this, but it's still doable.

May and June aren't the only offending months when it comes to console hardware sales, July and August have been historically just as harsh as well ... 

I would also say that your estimate for July is off as well since that sort of boost would be consistent with Japan selling 100K+ units each week and I don't think 3DS managed this in 2012 with it's Japanese peak in sales which has been outperforming the Switch by a vast margin ... 



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Those who buy Switch want nintendo games AAA, the sales rate of Mario, Zelda and Mario Kart before other non-nintendo games already prove this.
The problem is that to make a game AAA in a system with the current hardware, it takes from 2 to 4 years, as were the AAA games of wii u, ps3, x360 and the current systems, while making a game for 3ds, ds , wii was much faster and easier, thus reducing the time space between launches of nintendo.
No one is going to want to play a pokemon switch, say with 3ds graphics, and yes, with Switch graphics like Zelda Botw or Mario Odissey, and as big as them, then filling that time gap is made with other AAA titles companies, which works great on the Playstation but does not have much success for years on nintendo, at least not with the same consistency.
Maybe a base price of 249 or 199 could make the console open to all sorts of people and there attract attention from more producers who would risk more.
At the moment, Switch is just a faithful descendant of the nintendo philosophy of creating hardware to sell its own software and is tied to the gaming players, and consequently the sales they provide.
Yesterday, with Treyarch's announcement that there will be no Cod Bo llll, many nintendo fanboys celebrated and said that this was good and that the Switch does not need this kind of game, when in fact, this kind of game opens the door to non-nintendo players to buy the platform. So we have a nintendo philosophy cycle rooted even in the players themselves.
This is just one of the things that has to change for the console to reach a larger and different audience.



fatslob-:O said:
Lonely_Dolphin said:

True, and May n June are unlikely to be much better, so it's gonna need more sales in the back half of the year to make up for this, but it's still doable.

May and June aren't the only offending months when it comes to console hardware sales, July and August have been historically just as harsh as well ... 

I would also say that your estimate for July is off as well since that sort of boost would be consistent with Japan selling 100K+ units each week and I don't think 3DS managed this in 2012 with it's Japanese peak in sales which has been outperforming the Switch by a vast margin ... 

Never said they were, but in this case there's a lot of games releasing around July. I failed to mention Mario Tennis and I'm betting Yoshi will hit in August.



Not what they're currently doing, which isn't much. They need to scrap the 3DS already and shift their focus, the whole point of a joint library for a hybrid console is marred by the ghost of the 3DS and it's not like its sales are huge now anyway (the 3DS', that is). Get those 1st party titles going already.
Apart from Indie titles, the tiny internal storage is also proving somewhat of a conundrum for some, with digital taking an increasingly large part of the market even for consoles. Releasing a SKU with more storage would be one step in the right direction, SSD isn't over-the top expensive tech any longer and I find it unfair to expect the consumer to shell out for 3rd party solutions in order to enjoy what has long since been considered standard features of a console. Especially with prices for peripherals, controllers and software being really high as is.



They have Super Smash Bros. for sure and Pokémon as a probable title, two games that will stack with Breath of the Wild, Odyssey, Mario Kart and Splatoon 2 which have great legs. That makes already six major sales drivers for Switch and most console buyers are content with two key titles when they buy a console. Two out of six games being to someone's liking constitutes good odds.

This holiday season Switch isn't held back by production capacities either, so there will be holiday deals unlike last year. Labo is supposed to get a second wind at that time, so that's potentially a seventh incentive to the aforementioned games.

The release schedule in calendar year 2018 hasn't been high profile, but it has been consistent since March. A major game is missing in the first half of calendar year 2018, but a slump during the slow months can be easily made up for with a strong finish to close out the year. SSB and Pokémon being guaranteed 10m+ sellers in their lifetime qualify as a strong finish, so the weak April sales are of little concern when the fiscal year is considered.



Legend11 correctly predicted that GTA IV (360+PS3) would outsell SSBB. I was wrong.

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Even if the first half of the fiscal year is a little underwhelming (April to September), a strong second half (October to March) will make up for it - especially if there's a bumper holiday quarter in that time-frame. It looks likely now we have both Smash Bros and Pokemon coming in the final few months of the year. As Rol and others have said, it would be foolish to under-estimate the hardware driving effect these games will have - both are guaranteed to exceed 10 million in sales and Pokemon will likely end up in to the 15-20 million range.

On top of that, Zelda, Odyssey, Splatoon 2 and Kart 8 DX are going to continue selling and will sell several million units over the remainder of the FY. Add in seasonal boosts in the third quarter, plus a variety of potential 2-4 million sellers from Nintendo over the course of the financial year (Kirby, Fire Emblem, Yoshi, DK, Star Fox Grand Prix if real), and I think 20 million is still a completely reasonable target. Labo's sales are the wild-card here, as are any other additions to the 2018 line-up.



I expect heavy hitters to be announced at E3 in order to reach the forecast.

With the current lineup I don't think is possible.
My guess is Smash, Pokemon for 2018 and another heavy game like maybe Animal Crossing before the fiscal year ends in March 2019.



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Smash Bros and Pokemon obviously.
Combined with the evergreen titles and other new games it's totally doable. Expecting a huge Switch holiday.

Also, I am confident we will be seeing Fortnite reveal/release from now until September that will further boost sales. That game has been THE biggest software to push consoles this year.



Price drop for a basic kit (just switch and sidesticks) for 199$.



VAMatt said:
160rmf said:

Fixed for you

Your revision does create an accurate statement.  But, my original was also accurate.  

No, it wasn't. Nintendo made some wrong predictions in the past, but it doesn't make them notoriously bad.

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