How about more full priced Wii U ports? The Switch audience seems to love those but for some reason not the Wii U itself.

This true, Ninetendo has bigger spike comapred to PS/XB during holiday season. People already forgot that Nintendo last October-December sold 7.25m Switch units, combination of Smash Bros and Pokemon this year would easily sell more than that.

Fucks sake. I always do this, get the wrong idea. People are talking about FY shipments when I really should have said CY sell through. I actually believe they can ship 20 million. PS4 did it for 2016 but they only ended up selling 17 million in the CY though. I think around 16-18 million Switches for CY 2018 and 19-20 million for FY 2018. So that's that then.

It doesn't remove that fact, but that wasn't part of the question either, the question was how could Switch be selling well if over 37% come from US based on last year's charts. I just told him that this high percentage is due to low sales at start in Europe. It has dropped to around 30% due to a rise in Europe mainly, meaning his calculation is just as off as Zorgs which left out Europe entirely.

Im saying your April estimates of 460k are likely incorrect.

USA did 171k so adding in Canada/Latin America would put that up ~200k

Adding in the 162k of Japan brings the total to ~365k.

The region Nintendo calls Other (Europe, Australia, etc) has consistently been about 80% of Americas so your estimates of ~100k seem way off.

Global sales would be more like ~525k for April rather than 460k estimate you gave. The Golden Week boost in Japan is what put it above 25% of global that is usually does.

Also back in the fiscal year im talking about for PS4, USA was more like 30% of global so your 665k estimate for PS4 is likely a bit too high as well and would be more like ~600k.

~525k vs ~600k is not a huge difference.

Not at all.I have already said that several times, and I will say it again:People keep subestimating the selling power of Nintendo IPs that dosent have Pokemon or Mario attached to it.Smash is a gigantic IP, and Smash 4 sold 12 or 13 million units, with each new entry selling more than the last.Add that to the success of the system itself and its effect of making every single Nintendo developed or published game to sell more, and Smash might just be more of a monster IP.

Hell, the way games are selling on the Switch, I wouldnt be surprised to see FE sell 5 million units on the system.Like I said, Pokemon is a beast and will probably drive sales like nothing else before, but other Nintendo titles will do the same and honestly, depending on what is announced for the Switch this year, Pokemon might not even be needed to reach that 20 million units sold.Nintendo IPs in general are far stronger than people realize.

True, and May n June are unlikely to be much better, so it's gonna need more sales in the back half of the year to make up for this, but it's still doable.

May and June aren't the only offending months when it comes to console hardware sales, July and August have been historically just as harsh as well ... 

I would also say that your estimate for July is off as well since that sort of boost would be consistent with Japan selling 100K+ units each week and I don't think 3DS managed this in 2012 with it's Japanese peak in sales which has been outperforming the Switch by a vast margin ... 

Those who buy Switch want nintendo games AAA, the sales rate of Mario, Zelda and Mario Kart before other non-nintendo games already prove this.
The problem is that to make a game AAA in a system with the current hardware, it takes from 2 to 4 years, as were the AAA games of wii u, ps3, x360 and the current systems, while making a game for 3ds, ds , wii was much faster and easier, thus reducing the time space between launches of nintendo.
No one is going to want to play a pokemon switch, say with 3ds graphics, and yes, with Switch graphics like Zelda Botw or Mario Odissey, and as big as them, then filling that time gap is made with other AAA titles companies, which works great on the Playstation but does not have much success for years on nintendo, at least not with the same consistency.
Maybe a base price of 249 or 199 could make the console open to all sorts of people and there attract attention from more producers who would risk more.
At the moment, Switch is just a faithful descendant of the nintendo philosophy of creating hardware to sell its own software and is tied to the gaming players, and consequently the sales they provide.
Yesterday, with Treyarch's announcement that there will be no Cod Bo llll, many nintendo fanboys celebrated and said that this was good and that the Switch does not need this kind of game, when in fact, this kind of game opens the door to non-nintendo players to buy the platform. So we have a nintendo philosophy cycle rooted even in the players themselves.
This is just one of the things that has to change for the console to reach a larger and different audience.

Never said they were, but in this case there's a lot of games releasing around July. I failed to mention Mario Tennis and I'm betting Yoshi will hit in August.