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Even if the first half of the fiscal year is a little underwhelming (April to September), a strong second half (October to March) will make up for it - especially if there's a bumper holiday quarter in that time-frame. It looks likely now we have both Smash Bros and Pokemon coming in the final few months of the year. As Rol and others have said, it would be foolish to under-estimate the hardware driving effect these games will have - both are guaranteed to exceed 10 million in sales and Pokemon will likely end up in to the 15-20 million range.

On top of that, Zelda, Odyssey, Splatoon 2 and Kart 8 DX are going to continue selling and will sell several million units over the remainder of the FY. Add in seasonal boosts in the third quarter, plus a variety of potential 2-4 million sellers from Nintendo over the course of the financial year (Kirby, Fire Emblem, Yoshi, DK, Star Fox Grand Prix if real), and I think 20 million is still a completely reasonable target. Labo's sales are the wild-card here, as are any other additions to the 2018 line-up.