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Green098 on 18 May 2018
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LethalP said:
Miyamotoo said:

Smash Bros + Pokemon in this FY with some other games like Fire Emblem, will hit 20m mark.
If Pokemon is 2019. game but everything points it's this year game, Nintendo will probably have some other heavy hitter for this FY alongside Smash Bros.

Switch is selling better than XB1 desipte XB1 had Monster Hunter, Far Cry 5, AC Origins...also Switch sales until now are very comparable with PS4 2nd year on market.

Pokemon probably will release this year. But what's going to keep the Switch selling in the first 3 quarters of this year? It might well win the fall/holidays, but it's not garunteed. Spider-Man, CoD, Battlefield 5, Red Dead Redemption, Kingdom Hearts 3 are all games the PS4 will have over Smash and Pokemon, and Sony aren't even expecting to sell 20 million.

At the rate both consoles are going now, PS4 is looking like it will be a good 3 million units ahead (or more) of the Switch by September. This is before Spider-Man, CoD, Battlefield and Red Dead release. I have no doubt Smash and Pokemon will do wonders for Switch, but PS4 has some crazy lineup of games coming at around the same time.

The Xbox One argument is moot because PS4 and Xbox One share the same pie, but Sony has the lion's share. They have the mindshare hence the vastly better sales. Do we have to go through this?

Only Q2, 3 and 4 of 2018 matter and Q1 of 2019 for the 20 million forcast for Switch's Fiscal Year Ending March 31st 2019. If Pokemon releases in October/November there is a whole other 5/4 months of sales that it will help drive. Before that there are plenty of titles such as Aces, Fire Emblem, Yoshi, Smash to fill in the space before that. Just because Sony aren't expecting the PS4 to ship 20 million doesn't mean it won't. Also Switch has a much bigger potential in the Japanese market than a home only console to help make up for a lack in sales elsewhere. A combination of Pokemon/Yokai Watch and the pre announcement of an Animal Crossing could sure drive sales there.

Also Switch is still at it's pretty expensive price point of $300 for a handheld/low powered home console.

Last edited by Green098 - on 18 May 2018