What will drive Switch's 20+ million year sales?

[BlackBeauty]

LethalP said:

Miyamotoo said:

Smash Bros + Pokemon in this FY with some other games like Fire Emblem, will hit 20m mark.
If Pokemon is 2019. game but everything points it's this year game, Nintendo will probably have some other heavy hitter for this FY alongside Smash Bros.

Switch is selling better than XB1 desipte XB1 had Monster Hunter, Far Cry 5, AC Origins...also Switch sales until now are very comparable with PS4 2nd year on market.

Pokemon probably will release this year. But what's going to keep the Switch selling in the first 3 quarters of this year? It might well win the fall/holidays, but it's not garunteed. Spider-Man, CoD, Battlefield 5, Red Dead Redemption, Kingdom Hearts 3 are all games the PS4 will have over Smash and Pokemon, and Sony aren't even expecting to sell 20 million.

At the rate both consoles are going now, PS4 is looking like it will be a good 3 million units ahead (or more) of the Switch by September. This is before Spider-Man, CoD, Battlefield and Red Dead release. I have no doubt Smash and Pokemon will do wonders for Switch, but PS4 has some crazy lineup of games coming at around the same time.

The Xbox One argument is moot because PS4 and Xbox One share the same pie, but Sony has the lion's share. They have the mindshare hence the vastly better sales. Do we have to go through this?

PS4 had mass effect, destiny, horizon, fifa, cod, battlefront 2 last year.

That didn’t do anything to the switch. In fact, zelda and 3D mario from last year are not their top sellers. They are more critical darlings than commercial sellers.

Animal Crossing, Pokemon, 2D Mario, Smash are multiple times bigger than BOTW and Odessey.

Smash and pokemon will be this year best selling games easily.