You have some problem with reading!? I did explain, again, same like PS4 or any other console has benefits from Holiday season launch compared to any other launch date, consoles sell much better during Holiday season in any case compared to any other period, point that PS4 was sold out during Holiday season dont change that fact, that doesnt meant that PS4 would be sold out with March launch also. Actualy hardly that PS4 wouldsell same during March like they sold during Holiday season, and of course that Switch wouldn't sold same if it was launched during Holiday season because Nintendo would provide much bigger Switch stocks for Holiday season launch compard to launch in March (they would probably prepared around 4m instead 2m), because they know every console regardless launch sells much better in Holiday season in any case compared to any other launch period. I mean even Wii U had good launch because holiday season, and than right after Holiday season sales were terrible.

Its discuasing because despite Switch has great sales most of year Switch was supply constrained (and still is in Japan) and we still dont know how strong Switch sales really are, so thats why some poeple including me, said probably PS4 but its too early to say.

Where are these numbers coming from?

NPD has it at around 1.1m in Nov & 900k in Dec.

And vgchartz estimates have it a little over 2m in each month globally.

First off, thats just not how launching a console works. LIke you don't just sit down and say.... oh because we are launching in november we are going to make more consoles than we would have if were were launching in march. Like there is just so much wrong with that notion. Thats also why you have preorders, this way they have an idea just how many people are interested in buying. There are always going to be stock issues because sometimes they don't even start manufacturing till like 3/3 months before the launch day. 

I don't know why this is hard for some to accept. Theer is no way to klnow if nintendo could have made more than 2M consoles for launch, because we also have to assume that if they could have released in 2016 they would have, or if they were targetting a november 2017 launch it would have been because they weren't ready not that they were trying to stock pile stock. Like I don't even know how to start telling you how little sense that makes. If they released in november... with the amount of consoles they shipped, they would have sold exactly the same amount of consoles they sold.

Pls, keep in mind that till now the NS is still stock limited. Keep in mind that in its first 4 months on the market nintendo only managed to make 4.7M of them. And they all sold out. 

As far as sales comparisons go.... I think the absolute best way to compare it would be by just looking at them launch aligned (there is a thread for that already). Yes, the NS and PS4 will keep leap frogging each other but thats just the nature of the current landscape. And I thin it should be embraced.

But fact is that consoles sell much more during Holiday season in any case and that goes for launch also. Thats why Nintendo initially planned 2m for Switch launch in March, because they are launching console outside Holiday season, they would definitely planed much more consoles if launch was during Holiday season. And you can bet that Sony whould probably planned less consoles for launch if launch was outside Holiday season.

We cant know that for sure, but from start they were saying around 2m for launch, if console launch was during Holiday season, they would work to have 3-4m consoles for launch. It doesn't matter why Nintendo launched Switch in March and not during Holiday season (they definitely had reasons), point is that there is definitely difference if we compare console sales of consoles is they are launched during holiday season and outside holiday season even if they are both sold out.

I keep that in mind, but if Switch teoreticky had launch during holiday season Nintendo would aim for more stock units for launch, so Switch would sold more units on launch.

Totally disagree, like I wrote, there two huge reasons 1st year sales are not best comparison, first PS4 had launch during Holiday season while Switch had in March, and Switch most of time until recently had huge stock problems (and actually still have them), PS4 have them only 2-3 months. So comparing full second year on market makes incomparible much more sense (assuming there are no stock problems any more), than launch aligned.

I understand what are you saying, but it seems you dont undertand what I am saying.

NS was out of stock during launch period, but if it was launch during holiday season Nintendo would prepared much more stocks for launch, because they know consoles sell much more during holiday season in any case and that they would sell much more cosnsole during holiday season that they could sell in Match.  And if PS4 was actually launched outside of holiday season, its very likly that PS4 wouldn't be sold out, because fact is that people much easier and much more spend their money during holiday season compared to any time of year especially only few months after holiday season.

I mean even Wii U (worst selling Nintendo console of all time) had good launch because holiday season, and than right after Holiday season sales were terrible.

Sigh..... no. Thats not how it works. It just isn't.

Do you know why "outside the launch window" consoles sell more/have more stock during the holidays? Its because the months leadin to that there would be excess stock from all the previous shipments still on store shelves couple with a slight bump in either manufacturing or a change in shipping methods for just the holiday window.

Launch consoles just don't work that way. They are limited on so many different fronts. Its possible that the NS didn't even go into full production till like january 2017. Thats what happens with launch consoles.

This notion that to meet the launch of new hardware nintendo can just make so many more units because its holidays is false. Its never happened in the history of gaming. Never.... not even by sony who are in their entirety a hardware company.

It has NEVER happened. Look back the last 30 years. Can you show me a console that managed to ship say 4M consoles on launch day? Hell lets even make that in its first week. Be it holiday or not.

If nintendo could have made and shipped 4M consoles on launch day they would have allsold out. Same with the PS4. But they couldn't. Thats what I am trying to tell you. The demand for launch hardware truymps what time of the year they are being sold.

The people that go line up sometimes days before the release are not holiday shoppers. Those are fans.

lol nice try.

https://venturebeat.com/2017/01/19/2016-npd-call-of-duty-no-1-battlefield-no-2-on-2016s-list-of-best-selling-games/

https://www.amazon.com/gp/bestsellers/2016/videogames/ref=zg_bsar_cal_ye

If they had 4M consoles available for launch would be more because they failed to launch on the right time and waited for to long.

Sigh..... no. Thats not how it works. It just isn't.

Do you know why "outside the launch window" consoles sell more/have more stock during the holidays? Its because the months leadin to that there would be excess stock from all the previous shipments still on store shelves couple with a slight bump in either manufacturing or a change in shipping methods for just the holiday window.

Launch consoles just don't work that way. They are limited on so many different fronts. Its possible that the NS didn't even go into full production till like january 2017. Thats what happens with launch consoles.

This notion that to meet the launch of new hardware nintendo can just make so many more units because its holidays is false. Its never happened in the history of gaming. Never.... not even by sony who are in their entirety a hardware company.

It has NEVER happened. Look back the last 30 years. Can you show me a console that managed to ship say 4M consoles on launch day? Hell lets even make that in its first week. Be it holiday or not.

If nintendo could have made and shipped 4M consoles on launch day they would have allsold out. Same with the PS4. But they couldn't. Thats what I am trying to tell you. The demand for launch hardware truymps what time of the year they are being sold.

The people that go line up sometimes days before the release are not holiday shoppers. Those are fans.

Not much value on this discussion man. He is one that thinks Nintendo would stock 5M consoles (outside of what is on shipping channels) on FY2018 because it would make sense for them to do so. So feasibility, economics and others aren't a constraint to him. Nintendo that couldn't produce more than 2M for launch and had 6 months of supply constraint on Switch (and about 2 years on Wii) would suddenly be able to more than double that to launch on holidays (even if they will claim they couldn't provide more for launch because of lack of available parts on the market).

Nintendo that couldn't keep with shortages for 6 months after release would magically do a better job if launching on Holidays?

PS4 were on shortage at launch as well (even X1 was) and Sony didn't made 4M consoles before release even though they launched in Holiday... your assumptions are ever so funny.

I don't understand what you are saying though. So my answer to you may not touch on what you mean.

But my point is that they didn't have 4M at launch. No condole launch ever has. EVER. it has NEVER happened.

I would have thought this concept is easy to understand.

The holiday window lasts 2 MONTHS. More like 6-7 weeks in reality. If you are supply constrained 3-4 months after launch, meaning you are pretty much selling every console you make. And in those 3-4 months you only managed to ship/sell 4.7M consoles; then it means your manufacturing prowess for whatever reason was not such that you could make those consoles faster. You were doing the best you could to meet demand. 

How does anyone expect a company that hasn't been able to met demand fully almost 8 months after launch, to somehow make enough consoles to have a better launch during a 6 week window?

And I ask again, can anyone show me a console in the last 30 years that had up to 4M consoles available in its launch week? Even the PS2 didn't have that. Speaking of the PS2... that too launched in march.... in just one territory. 

Totally disagree again, fact is that consoles sell much better during holiday season in any case and that of course goes for launch of consoles also, offcourse that theoretically any same console would sell more during holiday season compared to any other launch date and espacily March.

Lol, you do realise that when company makes launch than make plan how much units they will prepare for launch, and of course they can sell much more units for Holiday launch compared to March launch, and of course that Nintendo would prepare much more Switch stocks if they were launching console during holiday season.

Imagine that PS4 has stock of 10m for launch, when would sell more units, during launch in Holiday season or during launch in March, offcourse that much more consoles would be sold during holiday season in any case. We cant know that Switch would sell 4m consoles on launch in March,for PS4 are much higher chances because it launched during holiday season because people much easier spend plenty of money.

People who go in lines up days before the release are actually small part of buyers during holiday season, during holiday season families, casuals, kids...for self or like gift, also buying consoles, not just fans.

Lol, coming from man that refuse evre posibilete for things that are not even ofical and talking like evrething is set in stone. :D    Just for record, Nintendo never didnt said they couldn't produce more than 2m for Switch launch, just that initial plan was to prepare 2m for launch and that they later had problem to incrase taht nubmer. And yes, they could work to prepare more units for launch if launch was during holiday season if that was plan from start, but we know from start that plan for Switch launch in march was to ship 2m units.

Like usualy you missing point, and point is simple Nintendo would aim to prepare more units for launch if launch is during holiday season, they from start were preparing only 2m consoles for Switch launch because they launch console in March not during Holiday season, but problem was that console were selling better than they thought and soon they had stock problems.

If we're going to be comparing early sales, release timing must be taken into account. Releasing during the holidays does provide a benefit to very early-life sales. First, let's look at how ten systems performed in Japan, five released in Feb.-March (the group on the left) and five released in Nov.-Dec. (the group on the right):

We can clearly see that Q1 releases tend more toward a "hockey stick" curve as they rapidly decline towards baseline sales (this is most pronounced on the 3DS & PS4). Meanwhile, the holiday releases are more erratic, usually showing a boost or stabilization of sorts during the holidays. The DS & PSP, both December releases, saw a dip in Week 2 before increasing again up through Christmas week, then sales started to drop towards baseline after New Years. The PS3 had an undulating wave-like curve during its launch holiday season. The Wii saw spikes in Week 4 (the week ending Christmas Eve) and Week 6 (New Year's week). Finally, the Wii U exhibited a "downwards stairs" curve. As a result of the holidays tending to stall the post-launch decline towards baseline sales for systems released in that time of year, Q1 releases see their first-week sales represent a larger share of early-life sales:

On average, Week 1 represented 52% of sales in the first five weeks for the Q1 releases, while for holiday releases that number drops to 35%. This continues to hold true even if we extend that range of weeks:

That's an average Week 1 share of 41% for Q1 releases but only 26% for holiday releases. Let's extend it all the way to 26 weeks, giving us half a year of sales:

And we see an average share of 22.7% for Q1 releases but only 16.8% for holiday releases. We start to see significant outliers in this ten-system sample at this point: the PS4 and Wii U. Both were systems that had reasonably good launch weeks but had dreadful baseline sales early on, which incidentally were roughly equal to each other, as we see in this comparison of sales for the first 39 weeks/9 months:

But those first five weeks favored the Wii U, because it was a holiday launch while the PS4 was released in February. That resulted in the PS4 running at a somewhat semi-stable deficit for a while, taking over a year for it to start to fully reverse the trend, close the gap, and surpass the Wii U in LTD sales:

Of course, this is just Japan. I started with them because their sales trackers track sales on a weekly basis. NPD only tracks sales on a monthly basis. However, an examination of NPD data heavily suggests similar trends. While systems are more likely to release in Q4 in North America, we still have several major systems released in the past 20 years that launched before Q4: the Dreamcast, GBA, PSP, 3DS, and Switch. Whenever a system releases prior to October, it always exhibits a pronounced drop in its second month. This does not really happen with Q4 launches. The largest November-to-December drop proportionally of any November launch system was the PS4, which saw a 24.3% drop, yet even that wasn't enough to keep it from having the second-largest first December of any Q4 launch system (the XBO edges it out), and the PS4's first December was over 3.18 times larger than the January following it. Now it is true that all three home consoles released last gen were November launches and had weak launches relative to their baseline levels thanks to supply constraints (and high price in the PS3's case), but they nevertheless did not see any big drops in December; had they had sufficient supply to meet demand, their launches would have been much better, but we probably wouldn't have seen dramatic improvements to sales in their first full calendar year (well, except maybe the Wii).

Meanwhile, the smallest drop any of the listed pre-Q4 systems saw in its second month was the PSP, which saw a 43.4% drop from its launch month to its second month. Every other system saw sales drop by more than half in their second month. Here's every launch month to second month drop for Gen 6-8 systems launched prior to Q4:

DC: -70%
GBA: -58.6%
PSP: -43.4%
3DS: -51.3%
NS: -69.2%

This indicates that, like in Japan, systems launched prior to Q4 exhibit a rapid decline towards baseline sales as they lack anything in the weeks following launch to sustain sales above baseline levels, while systems released during the holiday season continue to benefit from the holiday sales sales period in the weeks between launch and Christmas week.

TL;DR: Launching during the holidays does have a clear, demonstrable effect on sales, with an obvious causal mechanism in play. This tends to favor Q4 launches when comparing LTD sales, at least for early-life sales (the effect does of course wear off over time).

If we're going to be comparing early sales, release timing must be taken into account. Releasing during the holidays does provide a benefit to very early-life sales. First, let's look at how ten systems performed in Japan, five released in Feb.-March (the group on the left) and five released in Nov.-Dec. (the group on the right):

We can clearly see that Q1 releases tend more toward a "hockey stick" curve as they rapidly decline towards baseline sales (this is most pronounced on the 3DS & PS4). Meanwhile, the holiday releases are more erratic, usually showing a boost or stabilization of sorts during the holidays. The DS & PSP, both December releases, saw a dip in Week 2 before increasing again up through Christmas week, then sales started to drop towards baseline after New Years. The PS3 had an undulating wave-like curve during its launch holiday season. The Wii saw spikes in Week 4 (the week ending Christmas Eve) and Week 6 (New Year's week). Finally, the Wii U exhibited a "downwards stairs" curve. As a result of the holidays tending to stall the post-launch decline towards baseline sales for systems released in that time of year, Q1 releases see their first-week sales represent a larger share of early-life sales:

On average, Week 1 represented 52% of sales in the first five weeks for the Q1 releases, while for holiday releases that number drops to 35%. This continues to hold true even if we extend that range of weeks:

That's an average Week 1 share of 41% for Q1 releases but only 26% for holiday releases. Let's extend it all the way to 26 weeks, giving us half a year of sales:

And we see an average share of 22.7% for Q1 releases but only 16.8% for holiday releases. We start to see significant outliers in this ten-system sample at this point: the PS4 and Wii U. Both were systems that had reasonably good launch weeks but had dreadful baseline sales early on, which incidentally were roughly equal to each other, as we see in this comparison of sales for the first 39 weeks/9 months:

But those first five weeks favored the Wii U, because it was a holiday launch while the PS4 was released in February. That resulted in the PS4 running at a somewhat semi-stable deficit for a while, taking over a year for it to start to fully reverse the trend, close the gap, and surpass the Wii U in LTD sales:

Of course, this is just Japan. I started with them because their sales trackers track sales on a weekly basis. NPD only tracks sales on a monthly basis. However, an examination of NPD data heavily suggests similar trends. While systems are more likely to release in Q4 in North America, we still have several major systems released in the past 20 years that launched before Q4: the Dreamcast, GBA, PSP, 3DS, and Switch. Whenever a system releases prior to October, it always exhibits a pronounced drop in its second month. This does not really happen with Q4 launches. The largest November-to-December drop proportionally of any November launch system was the PS4, which saw a 24.3% drop, yet even that wasn't enough to keep it from having the second-largest first December of any Q4 launch system (the XBO edges it out), and the PS4's first December was over 3.18 times larger than the January following it. Now it is true that all three home consoles released last gen were November launches and had weak launches relative to their baseline levels thanks to supply constraints (and high price in the PS3's case), but they nevertheless did not see any big drops in December; had they had sufficient supply to meet demand, their launches would have been much better, but we probably wouldn't have seen dramatic improvements to sales in their first full calendar year (well, except maybe the Wii).

Meanwhile, the smallest drop any of the listed pre-Q4 systems saw in its second month was the PSP, which saw a 43.4% drop from its launch month to its second month. Every other system saw sales drop by more than half in their second month. Here's every launch month to second month drop for Gen 6-8 systems launched prior to Q4:

DC: -70%
GBA: -58.6%
PSP: -43.4%
3DS: -51.3%
NS: -69.2%

This indicates that, like in Japan, systems launched prior to Q4 exhibit a rapid decline towards baseline sales as they lack anything in the weeks following launch to sustain sales above baseline levels, while systems released during the holiday season continue to benefit from the holiday sales sales period in the weeks between launch and Christmas week.

TL;DR: Launching during the holidays does have a clear, demonstrable effect on sales, with an obvious causal mechanism in play. This tends to favor Q4 launches when comparing LTD sales, at least for early-life sales (the effect does of course wear off over time).

TL;DR: Launching during the holidays does have a clear, demonstrable effect on sales, with an obvious causal mechanism in play. This tends to favor Q4 launches when comparing LTD sales, at least for early-life sales (the effect does of course wear off over time).

Thanks alot for this. Data always beats assumptions. According to this we could expect that launching in the holidays might give a boost of 5-10% of the sales of the first half year - at least in Japan.

To the people claiming this can't be because supply constraints dominating sales: Supply is dependent on how much the company produces. The underlying assumption in your argument is, that this number is constant. But while there is no infinite production capacity, the production is strongly dependent on how much the console cpmpany orders from manufacturers like Foxconn, Pegatron and the like. So, they look at preorders, market research and some common sense and make educated guesses how much they do order. So in the holidays their research indicates higher demand, so they probably supply more units. This explains the data Shadow compiled.