PS4 VS Switch lifetime sales, which console will sell the most?

[DonFerrari]

Miyamotoo said:

DonFerrari said:

So explain to us how did PS4 benefited from launching in the holiday... when they had stock issue for all weeks after launch, had to ship by aircraft to have some stock for christmas (which put stock issues in january and february). PS4 would have sold about the same if it was launched in March and Switch would have sold the same if it had launched in the holidays.

But I'm sure you'll come with "reasons" and "explanations" why it would be different, and claim that since the past won't change no one can show that it wouldn't happen.

You have some problem with reading!? I did explain, again, same like PS4 or any other console has benefits from Holiday season launch compared to any other launch date, consoles sell much better during Holiday season in any case compared to any other period, point that PS4 was sold out during Holiday season dont change that fact, that doesnt meant that PS4 would be sold out with March launch also. Actualy hardly that PS4 wouldsell same during March like they sold during Holiday season, and of course that Switch wouldn't sold same if it was launched during Holiday season because Nintendo would provide much bigger Switch stocks for Holiday season launch compard to launch in March (they would probably prepared around 4m instead 2m), because they know every console regardless launch sells much better in Holiday season in any case compared to any other launch period. I mean even Wii U had good launch because holiday season, and than right after Holiday season sales were terrible.

Mr_No said: 
I don't know why this being discussed. PlayStation 4 will definitely sell the most in the long run, even with the Switch's current successful run. The difference will be huge too.

Its discuasing because despite Switch has great sales most of year Switch was supply constrained (and still is in Japan) and we still dont know how strong Switch sales really are, so thats why some poeple including me, said probably PS4 but its too early to say.

You again with the "you don't know how to read" "argument".... if PS4 and Switch were out of stock for several months after launch in their respective launch window it's because of the very clear and easy to understand point that they wouldn't have sold much more or less than what they did if the timeframe was different. This is just an excuse you are trying to use to make it seem like the gap would be smaller when aligning.

So the company that couldn't improve production because parts weren't procurable as you and many other have said for several months, because they changed the launch window those parts would magically be available and they would be able to produce 4M instead of 2M or are you suggesting they would stock pile from March this year up to November just to have more unsold inventory? And for what reason? To incur in more cost? Ow yes, you are of the line of thinking that having 5M consoles sitting for 2 quarters doesn't cost any at all.

Any evidence PS4 wouldn't sell the same in March? Because it was high on pre-orders and sold most of what it had in less than 24h and the following weeks and month were just people trying to buy from backorder.

For X1 you could argue that they would sell less if launched in March, first because they sold almost the same as PS4 on launch (a sign that PS4 was stock constrained, when after launch 2:1 was basically the norm).

zorg1000 said:

DonFerrari said:

So 1.3M in 24h, and then less than 700k in the following month isn't a sharp decline?

Where are these numbers coming from?

NPD has it at around 1.1m in Nov & 900k in Dec.

And vgchartz estimates have it a little over 2m in each month globally.

Look for Sony releases;

And previous posts here. All the pre-order sold in less than 24h and from like 4 months after most of the sales were backorders.

Intrinsic said:

Miyamotoo said:

You missing key point, when console makers launching console outside Holiday season they are preparing less consoles for launch than they would if launch is during Holiday season, from obvious reasons of course. Nintendo prepared only 2m Switch consoles for launch in March they quickly outsold everything and they even shipped buy planes 700k more but that again wasn't enough, if they were launching console in Holiday season they would prepare at least around 4m because they know during Holiday season consoles are selling much better in any case and regardless launch. I mean there is reason why Nintendo said they planning to ship 7m Switch consoles during this quarter.

From that reason, and point that most of time during year Switch was completely sold out and still is in Japan, it's pointless to compare PS4 first year and Switch first year, but comparing second hole FY year on market (from 1. April 2014. to 31. March of 2015. in case of PS4 and from 1. April 2018. to 31. March 2019. in case of Switch, or just from January to December) would be much more accurate.

But in any case, Switch sales are great with point that most of time had/has huge stock problems.

First off, thats just not how launching a console works. LIke you don't just sit down and say.... oh because we are launching in november we are going to make more consoles than we would have if were were launching in march. Like there is just so much wrong with that notion. Thats also why you have preorders, this way they have an idea just how many people are interested in buying. There are always going to be stock issues because sometimes they don't even start manufacturing till like 3/3 months before the launch day. 

I don't know why this is hard for some to accept. Theer is no way to klnow if nintendo could have made more than 2M consoles for launch, because we also have to assume that if they could have released in 2016 they would have, or if they were targetting a november 2017 launch it would have been because they weren't ready not that they were trying to stock pile stock. Like I don't even know how to start telling you how little sense that makes. If they released in november... with the amount of consoles they shipped, they would have sold exactly the same amount of consoles they sold.

Pls, keep in mind that till now the NS is still stock limited. Keep in mind that in its first 4 months on the market nintendo only managed to make 4.7M of them. And they all sold out. 

As far as sales comparisons go.... I think the absolute best way to compare it would be by just looking at them launch aligned (there is a thread for that already). Yes, the NS and PS4 will keep leap frogging each other but thats just the nature of the current landscape. And I thin it should be embraced.

Not much value on this discussion man. He is one that thinks Nintendo would stock 5M consoles (outside of what is on shipping channels) on FY2018 because it would make sense for them to do so. So feasibility, economics and others aren't a constraint to him. Nintendo that couldn't produce more than 2M for launch and had 6 months of supply constraint on Switch (and about 2 years on Wii) would suddenly be able to more than double that to launch on holidays (even if they will claim they couldn't provide more for launch because of lack of available parts on the market).

Miyamotoo said:

Intrinsic said:

First off, thats just not how launching a console works. LIke you don't just sit down and say.... oh because we are launching in november we are going to make more consoles than we would have if were were launching in march. Like there is just so much wrong with that notion. Thats also why you have preorders, this way they have an idea just how many people are interested in buying. There are always going to be stock issues because sometimes they don't even start manufacturing till like 3/3 months before the launch day. 

I don't know why this is hard for some to accept. Theer is no way to klnow if nintendo could have made more than 2M consoles for launch, because we also have to assume that if they could have released in 2016 they would have, or if they were targetting a november 2017 launch it would have been because they weren't ready not that they were trying to stock pile stock. Like I don't even know how to start telling you how little sense that makes. If they released in november... with the amount of consoles they shipped, they would have sold exactly the same amount of consoles they sold.

Pls, keep in mind that till now the NS is still stock limited. Keep in mind that in its first 4 months on the market nintendo only managed to make 4.7M of them. And they all sold out. 

As far as sales comparisons go.... I think the absolute best way to compare it would be by just looking at them launch aligned (there is a thread for that already). Yes, the NS and PS4 will keep leap frogging each other but thats just the nature of the current landscape. And I thin it should be embraced.

But fact is that consoles sell much more during Holiday season in any case and that goes for launch also. Thats why Nintendo initially planned 2m for Switch launch in March, because they are launching console outside Holiday season, they would definitely planed much more consoles if launch was during Holiday season. And you can bet that Sony whould probably planned less consoles for launch if launch was outside Holiday season.

We cant know that for sure, but from start they were saying around 2m for launch, if console launch was during Holiday season, they would work to have 3-4m consoles for launch. It doesn't matter why Nintendo launched Switch in March and not during Holiday season (they definitely had reasons), point is that there is definitely difference if we compare console sales of consoles is they are launched during holiday season and outside holiday season even if they are both sold out.

I keep that in mind, but if Switch teoreticky had launch during holiday season Nintendo would aim for more stock units for launch, so Switch would sold more units on launch.

Totally disagree, like I wrote, there two huge reasons 1st year sales are not best comparison, first PS4 had launch during Holiday season while Switch had in March, and Switch most of time until recently had huge stock problems (and actually still have them), PS4 have them only 2-3 months. So comparing full second year on market makes incomparible much more sense (assuming there are no stock problems any more), than launch aligned.

 

Intrinsic said: 

I really think you are not trying to understand what we are saying.

If you think anyone here is downplaying how well the switch is doing? Please don't. I dont think thats what anyone is doing.

All we are aying to you, is that launch window trumps holiday period. Because of stock. You don't even realize that by admitting the NS was outta stock during its launch window just goes on to help prove the point we are making.

It doesn't matter if you launch in march or december, when you don't have the stock to meet demand either way. Nintendo couldn't meet demand, months after the released the NS. And no, upping production from 700k/1M a month to 2M a month is not just a phone call away. 

I understand what are you saying, but it seems you dont undertand what I am saying.

NS was out of stock during launch period, but if it was launch during holiday season Nintendo would prepared much more stocks for launch, because they know consoles sell much more during holiday season in any case and that they would sell much more cosnsole during holiday season that they could sell in Match.  And if PS4 was actually launched outside of holiday season, its very likly that PS4 wouldn't be sold out, because fact is that people much easier and much more spend their money during holiday season compared to any time of year especially only few months after holiday season.

I mean even Wii U (worst selling Nintendo console of all time) had good launch because holiday season, and than right after Holiday season sales were terrible.

Nintendo that couldn't keep with shortages for 6 months after release would magically do a better job if launching on Holidays?

PS4 were on shortage at launch as well (even X1 was) and Sony didn't made 4M consoles before release even though they launched in Holiday... your assumptions are ever so funny.