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Forums - Sales Discussion - PS4 VS Switch lifetime sales, which console will sell the most?

 

What do you expect?

NSW will win by a huge margin 53 16.06%
 
NSW will win by a small margin 75 22.73%
 
PS4 will win by a small margin 75 22.73%
 
PS4 will win by a huge margin 117 35.45%
 
Sorry, no troll XB1 option. :P Oh wait... 10 3.03%
 
Total:330
DonFerrari on 16 November 2017
zorg1000 said:
quickrick said:

i already checked the best selling consoles, all sold peanuts there first holiday, at best 2-400k more, then if they launched at march.

We are talking about 2nd month drop.

Every console that launches in Nov has a relatively consistent 2nd month.

Every console that launches in Spring has a sharp 2nd month drop.

That is why launching in the holidays is an advantage when comparing launches aligned.

So 1.3M in 24h, and then less than 700k in the following month isn't a sharp decline?



duduspace11 "Well, since we are estimating costs, Pokemon Red/Blue did cost Nintendo about $50m to make back in 1996"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=8808363

Mr Puggsly: "Hehe, I said good profit. You said big profit. Frankly, not losing money is what I meant by good. Don't get hung up on semantics"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=9008994

Azzanation: "PS5 wouldn't sold out at launch without scalpers."

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Mr_No on 16 November 2017

I don't know why this being discussed. PlayStation 4 will definitely sell the most in the long run, even with the Switch's current successful run. The difference will be huge too.



DonFerrari on 16 November 2017
Miyamotoo said:
quickrick said:

Yea remember the wiiu, now that was comedy gold, see the same thing happening here, now saying the switch will bomb like wiiu, but it wont touch ps4, and japan sales will slow down fast, same with US.

You dont make any sense, this is actually totally opposite to Wii U, for Wii U people were saying that it wouldnt flop and it did flop, for Switch people were saying it want sell good and actual its selling great. Of Course that Switch can't bomb with this sales, Switch will probably one best selling Nintendo console and has chance to outsell even Wii.

 

quickrick said: 

I  believe switch will be  a very front loaded product, because of the mobile market. this year is just launched so take into account the wiiu sold the best in it's first year, so combine 3ds and wiiu in it's first year, and you have amazing numbers. then you have nintedo releasing 4 of there biggest franchises in the first year 2 of them the highest rated games of all time, and the third a 94, and then you splatoon which is phenomena. just look at super nes clasiic the thing could probably sell 7 million pretty fast but eventually sells will plummet. 

 

As for the holidays IDC what amazon says, ps4 will win december, and xbone and the x will take november easily, quote me on this.

So many things wrong. Wii U was overshiped in its first year, thats why we even had negative shipments in some territories in some countries, 3DS needed huge price cut in order to start selling, neihter Wii U (it actualy had stock probles for around 2 weeks) and 3DS didnt had any stock problems. And than you have Switch that selling out of gate great, and until recently had huge stock problems and still have them in Japan. You dont have reason to believe that Switch sales will plummet, Nintendo will easily continue Switch sales momentum with big and strong games whitiotu and software drouthgs unlikly 3DS and espacily Wii U.

We will see about holiday season, this will be Switches first holiday season and Nintendo consoles/handheld always have biggest speak in sales during holiday season compared to competition.

 

quickrick said: 

your not taking into account that this is nintendo next console and handheld, with there best first year launch line up ever. of course its gonna start strong. by next next year if it keeps beating ps4 in npd, then ill be convinced, hell i wanna see how it does  for this for the holidays first. i just believe it too early to tell, especially with out strong the mobile market is.

3DS will sell at end around 75-80m despite strong mobile market, and Switch has much stronger appealing on market (its home console and handled in same time), its much more interesting hardware in any case, and it will have bigger number of system seller games (Switch will have handheld and home console IPs). So Switch will probably sell more than 3DS at end.

Talking about mobile market, actually Switch can't attract part of mobile players, because like hybrid its bridge between mobile gaming and home console gaming.

quickrick said: 

OMG the stupid holiday excuse ps4 was sold within 24 hours in north america, the holiday didnt help it, because it had no stock. just like the wii, just like the 360. people forget that these consoles with out the holidays would sell 1.5 million in 2 months just based on launch demand.  example if super nes classic launched during the holidays, it would have made 0 difference, because it sold out right away.

Holiday season it's not excuse it's a fact, in those two months consoles usually sell more than in two quarters. PS4 launched right before Holiday season, so of course that lotsa people used their Holiday season money to purchase PS4. Point is that Switch was launched in Holiday season, Nintendo wouldn't prepared only 2m consoles for launch like they prepared it for Switch launch in March, they would prepared it at least around 4m, and you cant bet that PS4 wouldnt have same sales in March like they had in November and December.

 

quickrick said: 

lol nice try.

https://venturebeat.com/2017/01/19/2016-npd-call-of-duty-no-1-battlefield-no-2-on-2016s-list-of-best-selling-games/

https://www.amazon.com/gp/bestsellers/2016/videogames/ref=zg_bsar_cal_ye

You clearly missing point, NPD list includes combined sales from all platform versions of same game, so that means that in sales of Call Of Duty are included sales of PS4 version of game, XB1 version of game and PC version of game. While on Amazon you have list of best selling games for single platform, for instance just sales of PS4 version of CoD game, not combined sales for PS4, XB1 and PC version of game.

So explain to us how did PS4 benefited from launching in the holiday... when they had stock issue for all weeks after launch, had to ship by aircraft to have some stock for christmas (which put stock issues in january and february). PS4 would have sold about the same if it was launched in March and Switch would have sold the same if it had launched in the holidays.

But I'm sure you'll come with "reasons" and "explanations" why it would be different, and claim that since the past won't change no one can show that it wouldn't happen.



duduspace11 "Well, since we are estimating costs, Pokemon Red/Blue did cost Nintendo about $50m to make back in 1996"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=8808363

Mr Puggsly: "Hehe, I said good profit. You said big profit. Frankly, not losing money is what I meant by good. Don't get hung up on semantics"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=9008994

Azzanation: "PS5 wouldn't sold out at launch without scalpers."

Miyamotoo on 16 November 2017
DonFerrari said:

 

Holiday season it's not excuse it's a fact, in those two months consoles usually sell more than in two quarters. PS4 launched right before Holiday season, so of course that lotsa people used their Holiday season money to purchase PS4. Point is that Switch was launched in Holiday season, Nintendo wouldn't prepared only 2m consoles for launch like they prepared it for Switch launch in March, they would prepared it at least around 4m, and you cant bet that PS4 wouldnt have same sales in March like they had in November and December.

 

So explain to us how did PS4 benefited from launching in the holiday... when they had stock issue for all weeks after launch, had to ship by aircraft to have some stock for christmas (which put stock issues in january and february). PS4 would have sold about the same if it was launched in March and Switch would have sold the same if it had launched in the holidays.

But I'm sure you'll come with "reasons" and "explanations" why it would be different, and claim that since the past won't change no one can show that it wouldn't happen.

You have some problem with reading!? I did explain, again, same like PS4 or any other console has benefits from Holiday season launch compared to any other launch date, consoles sell much better during Holiday season in any case compared to any other period, point that PS4 was sold out during Holiday season dont change that fact, that doesnt meant that PS4 would be sold out with March launch also. Actualy hardly that PS4 wouldsell same during March like they sold during Holiday season, and of course that Switch wouldn't sold same if it was launched during Holiday season because Nintendo would provide much bigger Switch stocks for Holiday season launch compard to launch in March (they would probably prepared around 4m instead 2m), because they know every console regardless launch sells much better in Holiday season in any case compared to any other launch period. I mean even Wii U had good launch because holiday season, and than right after Holiday season sales were terrible.

 

Mr_No said: 
I don't know why this being discussed. PlayStation 4 will definitely sell the most in the long run, even with the Switch's current successful run. The difference will be huge too.

Its discuasing because despite Switch has great sales most of year Switch was supply constrained (and still is in Japan) and we still dont know how strong Switch sales really are, so thats why some poeple including me, said probably PS4 but its too early to say.

Last edited by Miyamotoo - on 16 November 2017

Valcristo on 16 November 2017

To know how the Switch will sell we had to wait for OCT, NOV and DEC, and also the first month of the next year and the support of third party developers. By know im not have optimistics predictions cause of the price of third party games, low storage on cartridges of games and low internal storage for installing huge amounts of data necesary to play some games, its not confortable to some traditional players and more expensive that just buy a ONE S or PS4 and play with more quality and less money (Im not to much into portable gaming).

My predictions... PS4 around 120 Millions... Switch around 40 to 50 millions... One 40 to 45 Millions...

I kwon im soo pessimistic with Switch, but without a great support of thirds parties and the reduction of handheld market in the recent years i dont believe that the console will endure with a great average of sellings for many years, you have to remember that the third parties has to expend more money to give less appealing versions of its games on switch, just with the appealing of being on a handheld. Wii U suffered the less support of thirds and ended diying soon... Switch has a really better numbers than Wii U, cause of that i think it will sell better than One or Wii U but not that much of Wii, PS1 or Gameboy.



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zorg1000 on 16 November 2017
DonFerrari said:
zorg1000 said:

We are talking about 2nd month drop.

Every console that launches in Nov has a relatively consistent 2nd month.

Every console that launches in Spring has a sharp 2nd month drop.

That is why launching in the holidays is an advantage when comparing launches aligned.

So 1.3M in 24h, and then less than 700k in the following month isn't a sharp decline?

Where are these numbers coming from?

NPD has it at around 1.1m in Nov & 900k in Dec.

And vgchartz estimates have it a little over 2m in each month globally.



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.

Intrinsic on 16 November 2017
Miyamotoo said:

You missing key point, when console makers launching console outside Holiday season they are preparing less consoles for launch than they would if launch is during Holiday season, from obvious reasons of course. Nintendo prepared only 2m Switch consoles for launch in March they quickly outsold everything and they even shipped buy planes 700k more but that again wasn't enough, if they were launching console in Holiday season they would prepare at least around 4m because they know during Holiday season consoles are selling much better in any case and regardless launch. I mean there is reason why Nintendo said they planning to ship 7m Switch consoles during this quarter.

From that reason, and point that most of time during year Switch was completely sold out and still is in Japan, it's pointless to compare PS4 first year and Switch first year, but comparing second hole FY year on market (from 1. April 2014. to 31. March of 2015. in case of PS4 and from 1. April 2018. to 31. March 2019. in case of Switch, or just from January to December) would be much more accurate.

But in any case, Switch sales are great with point that most of time had/has huge stock problems.

First off, thats just not how launching a console works. LIke you don't just sit down and say.... oh because we are launching in november we are going to make more consoles than we would have if were were launching in march. Like there is just so much wrong with that notion. Thats also why you have preorders, this way they have an idea just how many people are interested in buying. There are always going to be stock issues because sometimes they don't even start manufacturing till like 3/3 months before the launch day. 

I don't know why this is hard for some to accept. Theer is no way to klnow if nintendo could have made more than 2M consoles for launch, because we also have to assume that if they could have released in 2016 they would have, or if they were targetting a november 2017 launch it would have been because they weren't ready not that they were trying to stock pile stock. Like I don't even know how to start telling you how little sense that makes. If they released in november... with the amount of consoles they shipped, they would have sold exactly the same amount of consoles they sold.

Pls, keep in mind that till now the NS is still stock limited. Keep in mind that in its first 4 months on the market nintendo only managed to make 4.7M of them. And they all sold out. 

As far as sales comparisons go.... I think the absolute best way to compare it would be by just looking at them launch aligned (there is a thread for that already). Yes, the NS and PS4 will keep leap frogging each other but thats just the nature of the current landscape. And I thin it should be embraced.



Intrinsic on 16 November 2017
Miyamotoo said:
DonFerrari said:

So explain to us how did PS4 benefited from launching in the holiday... when they had stock issue for all weeks after launch, had to ship by aircraft to have some stock for christmas (which put stock issues in january and february). PS4 would have sold about the same if it was launched in March and Switch would have sold the same if it had launched in the holidays.

But I'm sure you'll come with "reasons" and "explanations" why it would be different, and claim that since the past won't change no one can show that it wouldn't happen.

You have some problem with reading!? I did explain, again, same like PS4 or any other console has benefits from Holiday season launch compared to any other launch date, consoles sell much better during Holiday season in any case compared to any other period, point that PS4 was sold out during Holiday season dont change that fact, that doesnt meant that PS4 would be sold out with March launch also. Actualy hardly that PS4 wouldsell same during March like they sold during Holiday season, and of course that Switch wouldn't sold same if it was launched during Holiday season because Nintendo would provide much bigger Switch stocks for Holiday season launch compard to launch in March (they would probably prepared around 4m instead 2m), because they know every console regardless launch sells much better in Holiday season in any case compared to any other launch period. I mean even Wii U had good launch because holiday season, and than right after Holiday season sales were terrible.

 

Mr_No said: 
I don't know why this being discussed. PlayStation 4 will definitely sell the most in the long run, even with the Switch's current successful run. The difference will be huge too.

Its discuasing because despite Switch has great sales most of year Switch was supply constrained (and still is in Japan) and we still dont know how strong Switch sales really are, so thats why some poeple including me, said probably PS4 but its too early to say.

I really think you are not trying to understand what we are saying.

If you think anyone here is downplaying how well the switch is doing? Please don't. I dont think thats what anyone is doing.

All we are aying to you, is that launch window trumps holiday period. Because of stock. You don't even realize that by admitting the NS was outta stock during its launch window just goes on to help prove the point we are making.

It doesn't matter if you launch in march or december, when you don't have the stock to meet demand either way. Nintendo couldn't meet demand, months after the released the NS. And no, upping production from 700k/1M a month to 2M a month is not just a phone call away. 



Miyamotoo on 16 November 2017
Intrinsic said:
Miyamotoo said:

You missing key point, when console makers launching console outside Holiday season they are preparing less consoles for launch than they would if launch is during Holiday season, from obvious reasons of course. Nintendo prepared only 2m Switch consoles for launch in March they quickly outsold everything and they even shipped buy planes 700k more but that again wasn't enough, if they were launching console in Holiday season they would prepare at least around 4m because they know during Holiday season consoles are selling much better in any case and regardless launch. I mean there is reason why Nintendo said they planning to ship 7m Switch consoles during this quarter.

From that reason, and point that most of time during year Switch was completely sold out and still is in Japan, it's pointless to compare PS4 first year and Switch first year, but comparing second hole FY year on market (from 1. April 2014. to 31. March of 2015. in case of PS4 and from 1. April 2018. to 31. March 2019. in case of Switch, or just from January to December) would be much more accurate.

But in any case, Switch sales are great with point that most of time had/has huge stock problems.

First off, thats just not how launching a console works. LIke you don't just sit down and say.... oh because we are launching in november we are going to make more consoles than we would have if were were launching in march. Like there is just so much wrong with that notion. Thats also why you have preorders, this way they have an idea just how many people are interested in buying. There are always going to be stock issues because sometimes they don't even start manufacturing till like 3/3 months before the launch day. 

I don't know why this is hard for some to accept. Theer is no way to klnow if nintendo could have made more than 2M consoles for launch, because we also have to assume that if they could have released in 2016 they would have, or if they were targetting a november 2017 launch it would have been because they weren't ready not that they were trying to stock pile stock. Like I don't even know how to start telling you how little sense that makes. If they released in november... with the amount of consoles they shipped, they would have sold exactly the same amount of consoles they sold.

Pls, keep in mind that till now the NS is still stock limited. Keep in mind that in its first 4 months on the market nintendo only managed to make 4.7M of them. And they all sold out. 

As far as sales comparisons go.... I think the absolute best way to compare it would be by just looking at them launch aligned (there is a thread for that already). Yes, the NS and PS4 will keep leap frogging each other but thats just the nature of the current landscape. And I thin it should be embraced.

But fact is that consoles sell much more during Holiday season in any case and that goes for launch also. Thats why Nintendo initially planned 2m for Switch launch in March, because they are launching console outside Holiday season, they would definitely planed much more consoles if launch was during Holiday season. And you can bet that Sony whould probably planned less consoles for launch if launch was outside Holiday season.

We cant know that for sure, but from start they were saying around 2m for launch, if console launch was during Holiday season, they would work to have 3-4m consoles for launch. It doesn't matter why Nintendo launched Switch in March and not during Holiday season (they definitely had reasons), point is that there is definitely difference if we compare console sales of consoles is they are launched during holiday season and outside holiday season even if they are both sold out.

I keep that in mind, but if Switch teoreticky had launch during holiday season Nintendo would aim for more stock units for launch, so Switch would sold more units on launch.

Totally disagree, like I wrote, there two huge reasons 1st year sales are not best comparison, first PS4 had launch during Holiday season while Switch had in March, and Switch most of time until recently had huge stock problems (and actually still have them), PS4 have them only 2-3 months. So comparing full second year on market makes incomparible much more sense (assuming there are no stock problems any more), than launch aligned.

 

Intrinsic said: 
Miyamotoo said: 

You have some problem with reading!? I did explain, again, same like PS4 or any other console has benefits from Holiday season launch compared to any other launch date, consoles sell much better during Holiday season in any case compared to any other period, point that PS4 was sold out during Holiday season dont change that fact, that doesnt meant that PS4 would be sold out with March launch also. Actualy hardly that PS4 wouldsell same during March like they sold during Holiday season, and of course that Switch wouldn't sold same if it was launched during Holiday season because Nintendo would provide much bigger Switch stocks for Holiday season launch compard to launch in March (they would probably prepared around 4m instead 2m), because they know every console regardless launch sells much better in Holiday season in any case compared to any other launch period. I mean even Wii U had good launch because holiday season, and than right after Holiday season sales were terrible.

I really think you are not trying to understand what we are saying.

If you think anyone here is downplaying how well the switch is doing? Please don't. I dont think thats what anyone is doing.

All we are aying to you, is that launch window trumps holiday period. Because of stock. You don't even realize that by admitting the NS was outta stock during its launch window just goes on to help prove the point we are making.

It doesn't matter if you launch in march or december, when you don't have the stock to meet demand either way. Nintendo couldn't meet demand, months after the released the NS. And no, upping production from 700k/1M a month to 2M a month is not just a phone call away. 

I understand what are you saying, but it seems you dont undertand what I am saying.

NS was out of stock during launch period, but if it was launch during holiday season Nintendo would prepared much more stocks for launch, because they know consoles sell much more during holiday season in any case and that they would sell much more cosnsole during holiday season that they could sell in Match.  And if PS4 was actually launched outside of holiday season, its very likly that PS4 wouldn't be sold out, because fact is that people much easier and much more spend their money during holiday season compared to any time of year especially only few months after holiday season.

I mean even Wii U (worst selling Nintendo console of all time) had good launch because holiday season, and than right after Holiday season sales were terrible.

Last edited by Miyamotoo - on 16 November 2017

Intrinsic on 16 November 2017
Miyamotoo said: 

I understand what are you saying, but it seems you dont undertand what I am saying.

NS was out of stock during launch period, but if it was launch during holiday season Nintendo would prepared much more stocks for launch, because they know consoles sell much more during holiday season in any case and that they would sell much more cosnsole during holiday season that they could sell in Match.  And if PS4 was actually launched outside of holiday season, its very likly that PS4 wouldn't be sold out, because fact is that people much easier and much more spend their money during holiday season compared to any time of year especially only few months after holiday season.

I mean even Wii U (worst selling Nintendo console of all time) had good launch because holiday season, and than right after Holiday season sales were terrible.

Sigh..... no. Thats not how it works. It just isn't.

Do you know why "outside the launch window" consoles sell more/have more stock during the holidays? Its because the months leadin to that there would be excess stock from all the previous shipments still on store shelves couple with a slight bump in either manufacturing or a change in shipping methods for just the holiday window.

Launch consoles just don't work that way. They are limited on so many different fronts. Its possible that the NS didn't even go into full production till like january 2017. Thats what happens with launch consoles.

This notion that to meet the launch of new hardware nintendo can just make so many more units because its holidays is false. Its never happened in the history of gaming. Never.... not even by sony who are in their entirety a hardware company.

It has NEVER happened. Look back the last 30 years. Can you show me a console that managed to ship say 4M consoles on launch day? Hell lets even make that in its first week. Be it holiday or not.

If nintendo could have made and shipped 4M consoles on launch day they would have allsold out. Same with the PS4. But they couldn't. Thats what I am trying to tell you. The demand for launch hardware truymps what time of the year they are being sold.

The people that go line up sometimes days before the release are not holiday shoppers. Those are fans.