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Forums - Nintendo Discussion - Nintendo Switch selling life time? (poll)

I originally predicted 80-100 million, but if this keeps up, I may have to raise the floor and ceiling of that prediction.



Hardware Comparison Threads:

PlayStation 4/Xbox One/Nintendo Switch: 2019 vs. 2020
(https://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread/241660/ps4xbons-2019-vs-2020/1/)

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Flilix said:
I think 70 million is an optimistic but safe guess.

I keep my prediction.



PAOerfulone said:
I originally predicted 80-100 million, but if this keeps up, I may have to raise the floor and ceiling of that prediction.

Welp, here I go:

110-130 million.



Hardware Comparison Threads:

PlayStation 4/Xbox One/Nintendo Switch: 2019 vs. 2020
(https://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread/241660/ps4xbons-2019-vs-2020/1/)

RolStoppable said:
Barkley said:

Even Rol's on the shrooms.

This is going to be a fun thread to look back at in a couple of years.

I would like to see a theoretical breakdown year by year for those predicting 100m+, The Switch will probably be succeeded fairly quickly, I'd expect the next device on the market by the end of 2022 at the latest.

I am doing a proper analysis that isn't limited to the eighth generation. Of course that puts me at odds with all the people who do not look at the big picture or don't even want to do that. I've already made my own thread to address common fallacies when it comes to Switch predictions.

The fallacy found in your post is that you assume a short lifecycle which is usually based on processing power, but that has no basis in reality. The 3DS lasted six years before its successor launched, the same holds true for the DS. The Gameboy lasted even longer. The only exception to the long lifespans of portable Nintendo hardware is the GBA, but that was triggered by Sony entering the handheld market and Nintendo wanting to avoid a scenario like in the home console market where it took them over 18 months to put out a competitor to the PS1. So logically, the only things that can lead to a short lifecycle for Switch are either incredible stupidity on Nintendo's part by trying to kill Switch off prematurely, or a serious challenger entering the arena. But considering that Nintendo comfortably beat everyone in the handheld market, including PlayStation, that's not a likely scenario.

Here's a breakdown by year that starts with my original prediction for 2017:

2017 - 8m
2018 - 16m
2019 - 22m (Revision, price cut and full understanding of the market that Switch is a successor to both Wii U and 3DS)
2020 - 21m
2021 - 20m
2022 - 15m

There are going to be more sales beyond 2022, but 100m are already reached with the above. The peak years are going to be quite flat, but that's in line with previous systems that got properly supported. The dropoff in 2022 is explained by Nintendo's top development teams preparing for the launch of a successor in 2023, so the first party lineup won't be as high profile as in previous years.

Switch is going to peak higher than the PS4, because as a gaming device it's not only more forward-thinking, its software lineup is also going to appeal to more demographics. Of course it's very much possible that the hybrid concept gets embraced by the market within 2017 which would result in a better first year. But right now it isn't crystal clear yet that Switch will get all the handheld support from both Nintendo and third parties, plus the hardware price in many countries is less than ideal (for example, €299 sounds a lot better than the actual €329), so I don't expect Switch to be beasting throughout its first year on the market.

People cannot imagine the Switch selling more units lifetime than the PS4 because they believe that the PS4 is doing amazing and because they tend to attribute any Nintendo success to luck despite Nintendo being the only company who can boast with a clean streak of domination. The PS4 isn't doing amazing. It benefits from the lack of noteworthy competition and being available in more countries than any other console. This global availability masks the merely decent sales in the USA and Japan, but it's clear that the PS4 is not selling like the PS2 and only looks as good as it does because it pushes the backend sales of the PS2 to the frontend. The PS3 couldn't get backend sales like the PS2 either, also because it launched in more countries sooner.

The biggest mistake people make when analyzing the Switch? They separate it into home console and handheld, and look at these parts individually to highlight flaws. The market isn't going to do that. Time will prove the naysayers wrong. Take your own beliefs, for example. Only a few weeks ago you argued that Zelda is not a system seller. Now we have sales data from various countries and it clearly proves you wrong. And remember, the argument "people buy Zelda because there's nothing else" doesn't work, because that makes Switch and Zelda sales only more impressive; it effectively turns Zelda into a game that people pay $360/€390 for.

Not too bad of a post for late March 2017. Throughout early 2017 the big question marks for me were how fast the market would understand that Switch succeeds both the 3DS and Wii U, and that would be crucial for the acceptance of Switch's price. That's why my sales expectations for 2017 were low, followed by a strong acceleration in 2018 as it would become more apparent that Switch does not only succeed the home console side (2017's first party lineup skewed heavily towards the home console side). 2019 was the destined peak year because of an expected price cut, followed by a plateau. How it actually played out is:

2017: ~13m (embraced out of the gate)
2018: ~16.5m
2019: ~19m (revision, but no price cut)
2020: Set for 20m+ (brings LTD to ~70m by the end of 2020, compared to 67m in my breakdown)

Switch's peak got postponed because the first price cut has yet to happen and that is going to create a longer and better spread for the whole sales curve. Back in March 2017 I was expecting Switch to get replaced in 2023, but Switch performed better out of the gates and showed no signs of slowing down since then, so since more than a year I consider 2023 as too early for Switch's successor.

I had Switch beating the PS4 back then already. What I need to clarify here is that the PS4 sold 17.4m in 2015 and 17.5m in 2016, so in March 2017 it didn't look like an absolute sure thing that the PS4 could crack the 120m barrier, hence why my Switch breakdown would have been good enough to get the job done at ~115m lifetime. Since then the PS4 could peak at 20.0m, but Switch also performed better than I expected, so the conclusion remains the same despite the variables changing a bit.



Legend11 correctly predicted that GTA IV (360+PS3) would outsell SSBB. I was wrong.

A Biased Review Reloaded / Open Your Eyes / Switch Gamers Club