firebush03 said:
Shtinamin_ said:
As of Feb 29th the Switch is estimated at 141M shipped (personal estimate), and is at -13% from FY'23 (18.63M from FY'23, and ~16.3M from this FY) in terms of shipping.
Jan and Feb are always the lowest selling & shipping months of the FY so seeing a -9.7% YoY in Jan & -15% YoY in Feb is really solid. We should expect to see a minimum of a 15%-20% decrease in the FY'25 goal. Personally I expect around 13M for the FY'25 goal. 10M is very reasonable. I'm sticking with 13M. Bringing the Switch to a total of 155M by Mar 31 2025.
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What’s insane is that 155mil would actually correlate well with how the Switch has down these past two months. Not even an optimistic projection, it’s literally just realistic. And to see all the older posts on this thread…Nintendo really pulled it off.
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Thank you, I do appreciate that :)
This is a bit more of an in-depth look for the potential 13M
In order to reach 13M they need to be selling around 1.09M per month (~363k per market ie NA, EU, J). Given that this first half of the year has only remakes and Endless Ocean as their releases, this first half will be rather difficult to reach that 1.09M per month. I expect Mar-Jun to sell anywhere between 0.8-1.1M.
Europe seems to be slowing down in sales compared to NA (US) and J. Europe dropped -24% from Jan to Feb. As far as I can tell this is the 2nd time Europe has sold less than 200k in a month, the other time was last year selling 195k. In that year we saw EU have months of +300k during Tears of the Kingdom hype, and 220k during the slower summer/fall months of July, Aug, Sept, Oct. Nintendo doesn't have a hype summer game that I feel will push systems. So I expect EU to be averaging from Mar-Jun to sell near the 220-250k range.
Japan on the other hand is doing the opposite of EU and selling like hotcakes, competing and dominating the PS5 sales, in a blue moon's chance the PS5 may sale more than Switch for a week, but still hasn't really been able to overtake consecutive months. I'm not worried about Switch sales in Japan, and expect around 300k per month from Mar-Jun.
NA has still been strong, and I expect around 300k per month from Mar-Jun.
For simplicity we will use the lower numbers, so by Jun 30, 2024 we should be around 2.5M the FY (3.4M Mar-Jun). Giving Nintendo 9 months to sell 10.5M. It will need a solid second half and holiday.
What will determine a 13M FY goal #1 is Nintendo and #2 their holiday games.
As of right now we have no idea what they plan to release on the Switch. According the rumors, Nintendo had plans to release the successor this holiday and moved it to Mar 2025, so it seems like it could be a gap holiday. These are my assumptions for holiday games that could potentially move systems.
- Metroid Prime 4 (The game is essentially finished and they are just making sure cutscenes look fabulous and testing for the game, as far as I have investigated)
- Pokémon game (Most likely a remake from the new branch in the Pokémon Company, Pokémon Works. It has people from ILCA & GameFreak working there. I expect they will announce it during the June presents, and it'll be a continuation of the Let's GO series. Something small, and something that has a engine already for Pokémon Works to get a game out fast. Which is why I think a Let's GO Johto is possible, the Kanto side is essentially done and only requires the Johto side to be worked on. For ILCA the BDSP remake was 1-1.5 years of development, and ORAS was 1 year. I think the Pokémon Company is planning to use ILCA and now Pokémon Works to get that same development time, and have been working on a remake since BDSP released. There have been rumors regarding a Gen 5 remake being outsourced but there hasn't been any more info surrounding it.)
- Legend of Zelda (Remakes, there are many games to choose from but I'll go with Oracle of Seasons/Oracle of Ages in Link's Awakening art style & Twilight Princess)
- Mario Party (They release a Mario Party every 3 years with the last one coming out in 2021).
Nintendo always has games sitting, or set to release for the holidays.
If any combination of those games release then I can see Nintendo sell around 4.5M for the holiday (Oct-Dec). Add that to the Mar-Jun numbers and Nintendo will have sold 7M. Meaning they need to sell 6M in 6 months (July-Sept & Jan-Mar). It will be a close battle for 13M.
Lifetime Sales Predictions
Switch: 160 million (was 120 million, then 140 million, then 150 million)
PS5: 130 million (was 124 million)
Xbox Series X/S: 54 million (was 60 million, then 57 million)
"The way to accomplish great things, is to be indefatigable and never rest till the thing is accomplished." - Joseph Smith Jr.
The minimum of 150M actually applies for end of 2024, not for lifetime. By end of March 2024 (= FY24) the Switch will be at 142M shipped (or very close to it). The Switch coming of a FY shipping more than 16M (yes, mostly likely the forecasted 15.5mil for FY24 will be surpassed) and having another holidays all for itself, it is very unlikely that it will ship less than 10M in FY25. Therefore, by end of March 2025, the Switch will be at a minimum of 152M (or very close to it). From then on out and whenever the Switch 2 will come out in 2025 (March, April, May,...), I mean, the Switch will not just stop completely to sell. Even if Nintendo "kills off" the Switch (which is very unlikely but howsoever...), an absolute bare minimum of two full years of production after Switch 2 comes out is guaranteed.
